Coronavirus II

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    jamil

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    Yep, we've already heard from a REAL Doctor and a member here telling us that their hospital is missing diagnosing patients with life threatening but possibly curable issues such as cancers and heart issues, kidney disease, because they are afraid to come into the hospital now or they are being misled by the media and think they will be turned away if they do come into the ER.
    This is direct evidence that the lockdown itself will kill Americans too and possibly many more than the virus.

    I think they spent a lot of time thinking about what could happen if we don't shut things down, how many people would die. I'm not in the camp of let's just start everything back up and roll the dice, if they die, they die. But I do think that it's past time to calculate the cost of the shutdown in dollars and in lives. It's better to know both sides of any issue, and we really don't see many people putting their effort into models that show the other side of it. We just hear about models that try to predict the side we've heard from throughout this. What we call it when we only consider one side of an emergent threat? "Knee Jerk"

    Again, I'm not saying we should just say **** it, the economy is more important than the lives that would be lost. We should put a lot more thought into how we can get some parts of the economy moving again, at least. I was glad to get a car wash today.
     

    BugI02

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    If we do that, is there a number of dead people that would make you question whether that was the correct decision?

    Like, right now, the professionals say about 60k deaths would happen with the current situation. If we open back up immediately, and that's all the dead people that get dead from this, then you're probably right.

    But, let's say if we open back up, and there are 10M deaths, would you still think that was a good idea? 5M? Is there a number beyond which you think it would be "too much"? (Keeping in mind that those people are not only unemployed, they are dead.)

    In a cost/benefit style analysis, increasing numbers of deaths would be acceptable up to the point where the economic damage of the removal of that many from the consumer population/workforce approximated the economic damage from freezing the economy. Though you may argue that deaths may overshoot that number if we open back up, the damage to the economy will certainly overshoot its projections also by an unknown amount. Whether opening up would acheive herd immunity prior to becoming a greater economic drain then our economic suicide would also be a consideration
     

    Ziggidy

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    Spreading longer than some thought.
    RO of over 5 according to the CDC.

    End the stay at home order and you are going to need quite a few more people to bury bodies.

    Companies like Ford or GM are not going back to work even if you lift the stay at home orders. They need parts,parts not made in the USA to build cars.

    Over the last 50 years we have painted ourselves into an ever smaller corner.

    We lack options. A restart would probably still lead to massive unemployment given supply line issues among others. Do you think restaurants will be booming if we reopen them?
    Who would go out to eat given what is known?

    We can not even keep a military aircraft carrier running and combat ready. You think the economy is less complex?

    I mentioned quite awhile ago I thought the world was in trouble. It is.

    The DOW just performed better than any week since 1974. Why does it not feel that way? Because it is a fraud created and fueled by the Federal Reserve bank.

    Our problems are much larger than covid-19.

    If we accept opening back up we are looking at death rates not seen in at least 102 years. Staying closed is not much better as our supply system further fails.

    Where do we start when you have millions of pounds of food thrown away while shelves at stores are not restocked because someone needed a foam tray and some plastic made in China?

    I think we will have to relearn what we think of as beneficial to our society. It may even cut deeper than that as people realize what they actually need to survive has value,more value than the latest Iphone.

    While we are sitting in our homes with many wanting things to go back to the way they were.I can only sit here and think what should actually have value in our society so this never happens again.

    We as a country are not getting out of this without pain. The least we can do is learn from it.





    If production of goods does not return to America we are finished as a world power. Finance and service industries are not a real economy.



    I am becoming worried about you.
     

    BugI02

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    That's an answer to a question I didn't ask. :)

    What number would be "too high" for you. Or...



    It sounds like it doesn't matter to you what that number would be? I feel like I've gotten to know your approach to things in our years here on INGO, and that doesn't jibe.

    Even 1% of the US population is about 3M people - including many in that high-income 40-60 years old range. That's economic depression-inducing alone.

    Would you really be ok with that?

    Are those high income 40-60 year olds irreplaceable in the workplace? Would there not be 30 to 50 year olds in position to take over? Would their earning potential be lost to the consumer space forever? Would they not have savings and investments and heirs to spend that inheritance? I don't think a high number of deaths would be as disruptive to the economy as you think
     

    Alpo

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    Are those high income 40-60 year olds irreplaceable in the workplace? Would there not be 30 to 50 year olds in position to take over? Would their earning potential be lost to the consumer space forever? Would they not have savings and investments and heirs to spend that inheritance? I don't think a high number of deaths would be as disruptive to the economy as you think

    Along those lines, I've been reading and thinking that it appears that the elderly and the poor are most affected by the virus at this point. Those 55 and older represent a significant contribution to the work force....I don't remember exactly...25% to 30%? But I'm not really certain of their "direct" contribution, i.e., how much of their value is in close and proximate supervision and labor in the work environment. Yes, we need Walmart greeters (purple). But, don't CEO's manage remotely at least a good portion of the time? Can't middle managers manage indirectly through technology for a few months?

    The poor, that is the "working poor" also contribute and they are likely the ones to be at greater risk if we get back to work before medication or vaccine is available. So, that ought to be a factor in consideration of when we loosen restrictions.
     

    BugI02

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    Young people are more willing to take chances with old people's lives.

    I think this situation is a bit ironic when compared to old people starting wars and taking chances with young people's lives.

    ETA - I am an old person and no, I have never started any wars.

    The original numbers on offer were 3/5 of the population might get it (worst case), 1/6 of those will require medical intervention of some sort and in my age group (60 to 69) about 1/28 will die

    That's a cumulative risk of 1 in 10 of developing a serious case and about 1 in 278 of dying. I would be willing to risk that, mitigated by my own level of precautions, in order to save the republic provided I could be sure the potential sacrifice would not be squandered by those seeking partisan advantage

     

    CountryBoy1981

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    As I continue to follow this situation, it is shocking to think this absolutely pales in comparison to the 1918 pandemic. If this is bad, how bad was that?!

    It may pale in comparison to the amount of deaths but it may not be less deadly than the 1918 pandemic. We have modern hospitals that can treat pneumonia that would have otherwise killed people in 1918. This one does differ in the age group that it is targeting.
     

    Dead Duck

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    Trigger Time

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    Sounds like he wants everyone to be exposed to it.
    Maybe he didn't get the memo of what side effects that some will die of later due to contracting this.


    Epidemiologist.... So, Job Security?
    Like a dentist passing out lollypops.
    You're going to get it eventually unless you stay in your bunker until a vaccine comes along in a year.
     

    GodFearinGunTotin

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    Mitchell
    Sounds like he wants everyone to be exposed to it.
    Maybe he didn't get the memo of what side effects that some will die of later due to contracting this.


    Epidemiologist.... So, Job Security?
    Like a dentist passing out lollypops.

    None of us are getting out of this life
    alive. Committing suicide isn’t going to have pleasant side effects either.
     

    GodFearinGunTotin

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    Mitchell

    “Now we’re in a bad spot because there’s clearly a dangerous political dynamic right now -- the economy is in freefall, a lot of people are hurting. If we acknowledge what is clearly happening ... the people who made these decisions, I think there’s going to be a lot of anger at them, so they don't want to acknowledge it, so they say 'oh it's the lockdown that saved us,'” he says.

    .
     
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