Coronavirus II

[Trigger Time]

Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance.




Guess which one this thread in in now. (just like clockwork)

Clockwork of what? Figuring out facts and real numbers instead of estimates and guessing?
We now have real data and are also learning that this has been here and spreading much longer than thought previously. I think it was wise to take measures to protect the American people but now with real data we can open out economy back up and still practice caution with social distancing and masks and control the spread.
Kids are still out of school until next school year so the little germ factories wont be spreading it.
People such as yourself still have the option of staying in their bunker.
I've been wearing a mask way before it was cool and will continue to do so. Everyone has to make their own choices but the government needs to release us.

 

[Alpo]

If your basement is leaking and you start by taking buckets of water out as fast as it comes in, that's progress. If you get a pump and push water out faster than it is coming in. That's better.

If you don't know where the leaks are, you're still only treating the symptom.

You and I are in absolute agreement that there's evidence of things getting better.

But, when we were testing fewer people, the mortality rate was about half what it is now. We are finding more and more positives, and as a percentage, more of those positives are dying. That is not flattening.

We are also profylactically testing more people, like first responders, who are asymptomatic.

We had a very important engineering project back in the 90's. Engineering burn rate was around $1 million per month. Each week, the chief engineer would report progress on hardware and software with 2 charts. That worked well....until the software started slipping schedule. Then, each week, we'd see a new "cut" at the software progress. Number of lines of final estimated code was growing. Progress against that estimate....let's just say that each new chart portrayed "progress" in the best possible light. In truth, the engineers had no idea when they would finish writing code....and the burn rate continued at $1 million per month. The project finally finished 18 months past original targeted completion date, doubling the initial estimate.

What I'm attempting to say is all the data and projections we're receiving at this point paints an imperfect picture. This disease is killing old people and will continue to do so. If we isolate, it will take a longer period of time to kill almost the same number of people. But, we'll pretty much drive the world economy into the ground in the process. We need to keep the elderly isolated. And, maybe if you're over 50, you ought to consider isolating as well. The rest should get back to work in May. And stay the **** away from the old people.

 

[HoughMade]

Based on what I observe, yes. The risk to the economy of what we are doing now is less than the risk of doing nothing about the virus...

Doing what we are doing now and doing nothing are hardly the only choices. Further, no one that I know of is advocating doing nothing. That is not what "opening the country up" means....at all.

Protect the vulnerable as much as humanly possible. Retain some measure of social distancing and reasonable preventative measures, but end the "lock down", possibly at some point in May. I have not seen anyone advocate "business as usual and whoever dies, dies."

 

[nonobaddog]

. If we isolate, it will take a longer period of time to kill almost the same number of people.

You can’t possibly know that.

 

[Hatin Since 87]

Meh. I’ve been back to work since Tuesday. We shut down for 2 weeks when the governor gave the order to do so, but since everything we make is for the government they didn’t like us shutting down. We got about 80 emails in those 2 weeks asking when we would have their parts ready. When we got back and tried to call them, they were at home emailing us from their couch.

 

[Hatin Since 87]

You can’t possibly know that.

It depends if we develop a vaccine or a cure, although I don’t see that happening any time soon. I hope im wrong

 

[HoughMade]

If we isolate, it will take a longer period of time to kill almost the same number of people...

In all this "flattening the curve" talk, no one seems to have noticed that the oft-shared graph seems to indicate the same number of people under the curve, regardless. just prolonging the effect.

Don't know if that's accurate....but that's clearly what the graph showed.

 

[nonobaddog]

It depends if we develop a vaccine or a cure, although I don’t see that happening any time soon. I hope im wrong

Exactly, except there is also a possibility of improved treatment without getting all the way to a vaccine or a cure. An improved treatment is most likely to come sooner than the other two.

 

[JettaKnight]

In all this "flattening the curve" talk, no one seems to have noticed that the oft-shared graph seems to indicate the same number of people under the curve, regardless. just prolonging the effect.

Don't know if that's accurate....but that's clearly what the graph showed.

In an overloaded situation, a large number of people don't get care, meaning a higher mortality rate.

 

[nonobaddog]

In all this "flattening the curve" talk, no one seems to have noticed that the oft-shared graph seems to indicate the same number of people under the curve, regardless. just prolonging the effect.

Don't know if that's accurate....but that's clearly what the graph showed.

Perhaps that is why there are no numbers on the graph - it is complete theory (which is PC for guesswork).

 

[JettaKnight]

Perhaps that is why there are no numbers on the graph - it is complete theory (which is PC for guesswork).

Well, it is Vox, so...

 

[HoughMade]

In an overloaded situation, a large number of people don't get care, meaning a higher mortality rate.

I get that this is the theory.

But I guess I'm curious about the number of people who get off the vent and make a meaningful recovery. We are assuming availability of ICU beds and vents saves a significant amount of lives. Does it?

 

[Hatin Since 87]

Exactly, except there is also a possibility of improved treatment without getting all the way to a vaccine or a cure. An improved treatment is most likely to come sooner than the other two.

Ya I’m hoping these studies on the malaria drugs turn up some good news soon. I just hope they don’t focus all the attention on this one treatment and actually try multiple drugs during this study. The HIV drug was showing some hope in Korea I believe. Time will tell, but I’m still doing my best to take preventative measures every way I can. Isn’t a risk I wanna take, even if the treatment drugs do wind up helping I’d still rather not need it

 

[HoughMade]

Ya I’m hoping these studies on the malaria drugs turn up some good news soon. I just hope they don’t focus all the attention on this one treatment and actually try multiple drugs during this study. The HIV drug was showing some hope in Korea I believe. Time will tell, but I’m still doing my best to take preventative measures every way I can. Isn’t a risk I wanna take, even if the treatment drugs do wind up helping I’d still rather not need it

There are numerous drugs being studied here and around the world.

Oh, and the oft-cited 12-18 moths for a vaccine is under normal conditions with no pandemic and including the standard bureaucratic timeline which I can assure you is not what is being utilized. How long? Don't know, but it is being rushed through the process as quickly as prudence allows which the 12-18 month thing does not account for.

 

[Alpo]

You can’t possibly know that.

Unless there is a vaccine or effective drug therapy, I CAN know that. It is obvious on its face.


Also, the Sweden/Switzerland statistics continue to be interesting. Too early to arrive at even preliminary conclusions.....but it bears watching.

The best thing about Switzerland/Sweden is we don't have any US media coverage of those countries...so no one has bothered to spin it politically.

 

[Doug]

In an overloaded situation, a large number of people don't get care, meaning a higher mortality rate.

Exactly; the graph shows those infected, which may well be the same in both cases.
The flattened curve allows more to be treated and, hopefully, more to survive.

 

[Trigger Time]

In all this "flattening the curve" talk, no one seems to have noticed that the oft-shared graph seems to indicate the same number of people under the curve, regardless. just prolonging the effect.

Don't know if that's accurate....but that's clearly what the graph showed.

Yep, we've already heard from a REAL Doctor and a member here telling us that their hospital is missing diagnosing patients with life threatening but possibly curable issues such as cancers and heart issues, kidney disease, because they are afraid to come into the hospital now or they are being misled by the media and think they will be turned away if they do come into the ER.
This is direct evidence that the lockdown itself will kill Americans too and possibly many more than the virus.

 

[smokingman]

Clockwork of what? Figuring out facts and real numbers instead of estimates and guessing?
We now have real data and are also learning that this has been here and spreading much longer than thought previously. I think it was wise to take measures to protect the American people but now with real data we can open out economy back up and still practice caution with social distancing and masks and control the spread.
Kids are still out of school until next school year so the little germ factories wont be spreading it.
People such as yourself still have the option of staying in their bunker.
I've been wearing a mask way before it was cool and will continue to do so. Everyone has to make their own choices but the government needs to release us.

Spreading longer than some thought.
RO of over 5 according to the CDC.

End the stay at home order and you are going to need quite a few more people to bury bodies.

Companies like Ford or GM are not going back to work even if you lift the stay at home orders. They need parts,parts not made in the USA to build cars.

Over the last 50 years we have painted ourselves into an ever smaller corner.

We lack options. A restart would probably still lead to massive unemployment given supply line issues among others. Do you think restaurants will be booming if we reopen them?
Who would go out to eat given what is known?

We can not even keep a military aircraft carrier running and combat ready. You think the economy is less complex?

I mentioned quite awhile ago I thought the world was in trouble. It is.

The DOW just performed better than any week since 1974. Why does it not feel that way? Because it is a fraud created and fueled by the Federal Reserve bank.

Our problems are much larger than covid-19.

If we accept opening back up we are looking at death rates not seen in at least 102 years. Staying closed is not much better as our supply system further fails.

Where do we start when you have millions of pounds of food thrown away while shelves at stores are not restocked because someone needed a foam tray and some plastic made in China?

I think we will have to relearn what we think of as beneficial to our society. It may even cut deeper than that as people realize what they actually need to survive has value,more value than the latest Iphone.

While we are sitting in our homes with many wanting things to go back to the way they were.I can only sit here and think what should actually have value in our society so this never happens again.

We as a country are not getting out of this without pain. The least we can do is learn from it.





If production of goods does not return to America we are finished as a world power. Finance and service industries are not a real economy.

 

[BugI02]

It should be understood as part of the overall understanding of it's spread, but it is being used as a talking point to downplay this disease somehow. It appears the disease was first contracted in China in November, was noticed by China in early December and has been spreading ever since. I wouldn't be at all shocked that people were flying from China to the US and the rest of the world with this disease earlier than January. The Chinese didn't do their first real lockdown until 1/23/20 and due to the way they implemented it, 5 million (of 11 million) Chinese fled Wuhan and no doubt some of them took this gift with them around China and the world in a major wave of carriers.

I also think it is important to derive/divine intent, I see three possibilities

1 It was an accidental release that got away from them because they underestimated the virulence and they were more interested in covering up the accident, sort of like Chernobyl

2 It was an accidental release, but the cover up was deliberate as they saw an opportunity to inflict damage to competitors, specifically the US and EU

3 The release was deliberate, sacrificing their own people in service of damaging the US and EU

If 2 or 3, it should result in a gamma ray suntan for somebody

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Spreading longer than some thought.
RO of over 5 according to the CDC.

End the stay at home order and you are going to need quite a few more people to bury bodies.

Companies like Ford or GM are not going back to work even if you lift the stay at home orders. They need parts,parts not made in the USA to build cars.

Over the last 50 years we have painted ourselves into an ever smaller corner.

We lack options. A restart would probably still lead to massive unemployment given supply line issues among others. Do you think restaurants will be booming if we reopen them?
Who would go out to eat given what is known?

We can not even keep a military aircraft carrier running and combat ready. You think the economy is less complex?

I mentioned quite awhile ago I thought the world was in trouble. It is.

The DOW just performed better than any week since 1974. Why does it not feel that way? Because it is a fraud created and fueled by the Federal Reserve bank.

Our problems are much larger than covid-19.

If we accept opening back up we are looking at death rates not seen in at least 102 years. Staying closed is not much better as our supply system further fails.

Where do we start when you have millions of pounds of food thrown away while shelves at stores are not restocked because someone needed a foam tray and some plastic made in China?

I think we will have to relearn what we think of as beneficial to our society. It may even cut deeper than that as people realize what they actually need to survive has value,more value than the latest Iphone.

While we are sitting in our homes with many wanting things to go back to the way they were.I can only sit here and think what should actually have value in our society so this never happens again.

We as a country are not getting out of this without pain. The least we can do is learn from it.





If production of goods does not return to America we are finished as a world power. Finance and service industries are not a real economy.

Not based on a conference call I heard about this morning.