Coronavirus II

[T.Lex]

I’m curious about something. According to the worldometers web site, roughly 2% of the covid patients are “serious or critical”. They give a number of 795 people. Even assuming most of those are in NY, is that number a number that would be overwhelming our medical system? Or is it that the other 98% are consuming more of the services than they should be? There’s something about all of this that doesn’t make a lot of sense.

I think there are various levels of the problem, the first (IMHO) being the breakage in reporting of deaths from this. I think it is being far under-reported.

But, let's use the numbers they're feeding us. There's ~35k positive cases and let's ballpark that as .01% of the US population (yeah yeah yeah, rounding). If there's about 700 critical cases from that (which is 2%) we can back into how many of the total US population could be critical. (Again, there are variables we can't account for, like the prioritization of testing of already sick people to positively diagnose, which means the actual critical rate might be lower.) If 10% of the population is infected, then we move the zeroes over and then we get 70,000 critical. That's alot of ICUs and ventilators that number about 10% of that.

If all 70k hit in a 4 month period, that's still 17,500 per month across the country. But it wouldn't be across the country, there would be hot spots, like NYC.

We're a big country. Would the "entire" health care system be overwhelmed? Probably not. But I really wouldn't want to be in one of the places that was.

 

[HoughMade]

Get production ramped up as much as we can for the materials and locations to treat people, get as much as we can in place, then start loosening the restrictions and...triage.

 

[MCgrease08]

Finally, someone get's it! The individual does not matter, it's all about "society" and the group. Anyone who becomes an hindrance to "society" or the group should be allowed to die or even encouraged to die. Such burdens only hinder "society" or the group and should be eliminated.

Stalin, Mao and Pol Pot approve of this message!

Doc is only trying to put things in perspective. We clearly are OK with some level of death in our country, we just disagree on what the socially acceptable level is. Just because someone acknowledges this shouldn't open them up to comparisons to Mao, Stalin, Hitler, etc. Making those comparisons pretty much eliminates any ability to have a serious discussion.

By some estimates, 150,000 people die globally every single day.

Here are some other daily statistics just to add perspective.

Approx 26,000 people die every day from cancer

Approx 49,000 people die every day from heart disease

Approx 2,000 people die every day from diabetes

Approx 1,200 people die every day from vector borne diseases (parasites, bacteria, mosquitoes)

Approx 375 people die every day from snake bites

These are just a handful of examples. So yes, it is important to stop the spread of COVID-19. If we don't, the transmission rates will be high and the total number killed by it will rise. But it is important to have some perspective. Globally we don't completely shut down day-to-day life to deal with these other issues. That's a fact. Simply pointing that out does not imply one isn't taking COVID-19 seriously, or that they want people to die.

 

[T.Lex]

Approximately 2.8M people die each year in the US. I'm not sure that will change for 2020. The "extra" people dying of COVID-19 are probably offset by the reduction in murders and car wrecks.

 

[HoughMade]

Approximately 2.8M people die each year in the US. I'm not sure that will change for 2020. The "extra" people dying of COVID-19 are probably offset by the reduction in murders and car wrecks.

...and many of them would have died in 2020, regardless.

 

[SwikLS]

Approximately 2.8M people die each year in the US. I'm not sure that will change for 2020. The "extra" people dying of COVID-19 are probably offset by the reduction in murders and car wrecks.

the "extra" peepo right now are at 400. reason enough to collapse the economy and go full communism if you ask me.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

I think there are various levels of the problem, the first (IMHO) being the breakage in reporting of deaths from this. I think it is being far under-reported.

But, let's use the numbers they're feeding us. There's ~35k positive cases and let's ballpark that as .01% of the US population (yeah yeah yeah, rounding). If there's about 700 critical cases from that (which is 2%) we can back into how many of the total US population could be critical. (Again, there are variables we can't account for, like the prioritization of testing of already sick people to positively diagnose, which means the actual critical rate might be lower.) If 10% of the population is infected, then we move the zeroes over and then we get 70,000 critical. That's alot of ICUs and ventilators that number about 10% of that.

If all 70k hit in a 4 month period, that's still 17,500 per month across the country. But it wouldn't be across the country, there would be hot spots, like NYC.

We're a big country. Would the "entire" health care system be overwhelmed? Probably not. But I really wouldn't want to be in one of the places that was.

Yeah, I get how it “could be”. But the vibe I’m getting by reading and listening is that we’re already on the verge of collapse.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Get production ramped up as much as we can for the materials and locations to treat people, get as much as we can in place, then start loosening the restrictions and...triage.

Yes. And sooner rather than later.

In that vein, I was thinking about GM’s offer to help manufacture ventilators the other day...just about the time the union wore them down and forced them to shut down their factories. How will GM be able to help make ventilators when everyone is sitting at home? (Or at the beach with their kids on spring break?)

 

[ArcadiaGP]

58 new cases in Indy

https://www.wthr.com/article/indiana-coronavirus-updates-isdh-announces-58-new-cases

 

[Ingomike]

I have seen your posts in this thread. Many of those posts discuss how slow things have become in your area and how this has adversely effected your and your wife financially.


Just because you and many Americans have chosen to reject financial preparedness does not mean that people should be allowed / encouraged to die for your financial convenience.

This is just out of line to get that personal about an individual member you know nothing about other than a couple of posts.

I appreciate his insight into what he actually sees going on and that he is not fear mongering...

 

[nonobaddog]

Assuming health care facilities are staffed for "normal" demand or even a little less (hence the backlogs and wait times) anything that deviates from "normal" causes stress to the system. Now there are two deviations at work.
One - some people are staying home and not seeking care for elective surgery, therapy, routine treatments or minor symptoms.
Two - more people are seeking care for COVID-19 symptoms and probably more people are coming in with flu symptoms than previously because they don't know if it is flu or COVID-19.

When some percentage of people do need care for COVID-19 that care tends to be long term, intensive and more difficult to deliver because of the contagious nature of the virus.

It sounds like some areas are underwhelmed by a lack of patients and other areas are getting overwhelmed by too many patients. The areas that are overwhelmed now could be in serious trouble if the demand increases exponentially as many predict. The areas that are underwhelmed should probably be thankful.

 

[JettaKnight]

400,000 a year die from smoking each year yet it's legal. And it overwhelms our healthcare system.

But we destroyed our economy and the lives of tens of millions on purpose.

Why are some lives more valuable?

Those deaths are steady, drawn out in an even distribution, not contagious, and no surprise at all.


There's the big difference.

 

[T.Lex]

the "extra" peepo right now are at 400. reason enough to collapse the economy and go full communism if you ask me.

Well, that's the reported number (closer to 500, but I won't quibble) of deaths. We actually don't know (at least I can't find it) reported on "hospitalized" or "critical." That's where the stress to the system is.

The dead people don't need hospitals or critical care.

Yeah, I get how it “could be”. But the vibe I’m getting by reading and listening is that we’re already on the verge of collapse.

From what I can tell, those that convey the "edge of collapse" narrative are closest to the "worst case scenario" planning. That's not a criticism, just an observation.

 

[ChristianPatriot]

58 new cases in Indy

https://www.wthr.com/article/indiana-coronavirus-updates-isdh-announces-58-new-cases

Total Indiana positive cases so far - 259. Or roughly .004% of Indiana’s population.
Total number of Indiana deaths so far - 7. Or roughly .0001% of Indiana’s population.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

https://hotair.com/archives/jazz-shaw/2020/03/23/nyc-short-medical-supplies-somebody-forgot-order/

But it’s all Trump’s fault. The feds lack of planning is killing people...

 

[Dead Duck]

Let me get this straight...
You guys are upset because of the low death count?

Well I have good news for you. We are just getting started.

 

[nonobaddog]

The dead people don't need hospitals or critical care.

From what I can tell, those that convey the "edge of collapse" narrative are closest to the "worst case scenario" planning. That's not a criticism, just an observation.

The dead people in Italy actually overwhelmed a different system - the crematorium and cemetery. In the worst hit area they had to truck bodies to other crematoriums and they were burying people every half hour like an assembly line.

 

[ChristianPatriot]

Let me get this straight...
You guys are upset because of the low death count?

Well I have good news for you. We are just getting started.

Just an observation, that’s all.

On average, roughly 167 people die in Indiana every day.

 

[T.Lex]

Let me get this straight...
You guys are upset because of the low death count?

Well I have good news for you. We are just getting started.

I don't think I'm part of the "you guys" but I am a competitive guy. This is like golf. The country with the lowest death rate per infection per population does the best. (Looks like ROK is going to "win" this, but its not over yet.)

I really hope we do keep the deaths down and get through this in way that allows us to question whether we had to go through so much disruption. I hope we have that luxury.

The worst case scenario would be that we look back and wish we'd done more.

 

[HoughMade]

Approximately 2.8M people die each year in the US. I'm not sure that will change for 2020. The "extra" people dying of COVID-19 are probably offset by the reduction in murders and car wrecks.

Oh, and suicides. We can't forget suicides. Those will go up...and I really wish I were joking.