Coronavirus II

[worddoer]

Press conference now: FEMA Director stressed the National Guard called up is under Title 32 (State control). FEMA is funding the call-up.

link?

Here is a copy of the press conference. I can confirm this was mentioned during the press conference. However, as I understand it, it is only for certain states. And the governors are in control of their respective National Guard units. Also, it was mentioned that the partial fees that a state pays for the National Guard is being waved and the federal government will fund them in full.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czQseUdFX0Q

 

[T.Lex]

Mathematically, merely having rapidly escalating positive cases isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I’m assuming testing is becoming more readily available and we’re catching more cases than we have been up until now.

Absolutely. The number of positive cases is only important to me (and my narrow perspective) to determine the average mortality rate. Nothing more.

Early on, we lost the ability to track actual numbers of "new cases" by not identifying the then-current cases.

I should've been more explicit, but generally I'm focusing on the body count.

 

[CampingJosh]

Maybe you should look at the SBA Mr. Non Profit eggspert those are the rates posted on the SBA’s economic disaster assistance page. So read the bullet points especially where it says non-profits 2.75%!

https://disasterloan.sba.gov/ela/Declarations/ViewDisasterDocument/3566

And I quote “the interest rate for non profits is 2.75%”

I roll my eyes at you still pretending that you don't understand the difference between for profit businesses and nonprofit organizations.

That's a great interest rate for nonprofits, but again, I think it's really unlikely that most will qualify for a loan.

 

[Alpo]

We are not in ordinary times. I would expect that organizations designated as small business will be given loans that do not require repayment if employees are kept on the payroll and the money is used for normal business purposes. And yes, that should include the owner's salary as well. Whether non-profits will be included....well I certainly hope so. An employee providing service to the community in a non-profit shouldn't be treated differently than a for-profit enterprise if they are doing similar work, don'tcha think?

 

[nonobaddog]

As well as not-for-profits.

 

[Phase2]

.

 

[actaeon277]

Just curious....

At home do you have a pantry to store all your apocalyptic goods or do you spread it out in the walkways so you can step all over your food like the good old days in the sub?

OpSec.
I'd tell you, but then..

 

[Alpo]

Well...I thought the periscope was a bit much...but, hey, it may come in handy.

 

[smokingman]

British change tactics,admitting by new reports not closing things down will lead to over 500,000 deaths in Great Britain.

Shutting things down,testing,and isolating still leave estimates at 250,000 dead by September and modeling suggests if restrictions are eased then deaths will rise again to 8 times the available hospital capacity. There are no good answers anymore.
The report concludes "suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time". It is hoped deaths could be limited to the thousands or tens of thousands.
Lots of stats,charts,and information at the source.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51915302

Germany lowers public gatherings to only 2 people at a time.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51999080

Mrs Merkel's office said she would quarantine herself.
A doctor who vaccinated her on Friday against pneumococcus, a pneumonia-causing bacteria, had tested positive for coronavirus. The chancellor, 65, will be tested regularly in the next few days and work from home, her spokesman said.
Germany, Europe's largest economy, has so far confirmed 18,610 cases and 55 deaths from Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-desperate-doctors-are-shielded-by-trash-bags

At some Spanish hospitals, doctors and nurses resort to taping garbage sacks to their arms to shield themselves while they work to save an avalanche of patients fighting for breath. They’ve run out of disposable coats.


The plastic glasses they wear are of such poor quality that medics can barely see through them, so they find the pulses and veins of coronavirus patients by touch, said Samantha Gonzalez, a 52-year-old nurse who works in the emergency room at the Txagorritxu hospital in the Basque city of Vitoria.


“This is not the first world anymore—it’s a war,” said Gonzalez.




[FONT=&amp]Goldman, who is also a nurse, says that Elmhurst Hospital and NYU’s Brooklyn campus are seeing their intensive care units filled with a share of patients under 40 years old they had not anticipated.

[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]“It’s not who we were expecting,” she says.

[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp]Over half of all Covid-19 patients in New York are between 18 and 49, the state says.
[/FONT]
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/t...k-area-hospitals-as-virus-spreads/ar-BB11wbSY



Doctor posting daily updates from New York's Columbia Hospital.
https://twitter.com/ColumbiaSurgery/status/1241497522176176129




The state is ordering New York hospitals to expand their capacity by at least 50 percent to prepare for an expected influx of COVID-19 patients, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Sunday.
The state Department of Health's emergency order requires all hospitals to develop plans to increase capacity by a minimum of 50 percent and aim to double the number of beds.

Starting Wednesday, hospitals must also cancel all elective, non-critical surgeries to further increase capacity for patients with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/new-york-hospitals-ordered-add-beds-handle-coronavirus


Funeral homes in NY State limit number of people who can attend to 10(10 immediate family members). Starts funeral streaming service.
https://nypost.com/2020/03/22/funerals-forced-to-go-online-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/


Study on using UV light to sterilize N-95 masks.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4699414/

 

[smokingman]

COVID-19 Illness in Native and Immunosuppressed States:A Clinical-Therapeutic Staging Proposa
https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.literatumo...e/journals/healun/Article_2-1584647583070.pdf

COVID-19: consider cytokine storm syndromes and immunosuppression


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30628-0/fulltext

A serological assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in humans

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1.full.pdf

Immune responses prior to patient recovery

https://covid-info.us/publication/immune-responses-prior-to-patient-recovery/


MMWR - Severe Outcomes Among Patients

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6912e2-H.pdf




https://journals.lww.com/neurotodayonline/blog/breakingnews/pages/post.aspx?PostID=908


[FONT=&quot]Kenneth L. Tyler, MD, FAAN, Louis Baum Endowed Professor and chair of neurology at University of Colorado School of Medicine, noted that earlier this year a report from three COVID-19-designated hospitals in Wuhan, China, indicated that more than one-third of coronavirus patients had some type of neurologic symptom, including altered consciousness, evidence of skeletal muscle damage, and acute cerebrovascular disease.

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Avindra Nath, MD, FAAN, intramural clinical director of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS), noted that early reports indicate some COVID-19 patients experience symptoms of headache, stiff neck, and muscle ache, which, he said, may be suggestive of viral meningitis.

[/FONT]http://www.china.org.cn/china/Off_the_Wire/2020-03/05/content_75778340.htm

 

[KellyinAvon]

Buddy of mine is a pilot. He’s in quarantine right now, they had him flying to Seattle for 8 days, and now he’s running a 101 temp. He was supposed to get his results back Wednesday, still haven’t got his results. Now his wife is sick and in quarantine with him, she works for a pharmacy. Her work was trying to get her to come to work, he said her manager told her to “wear a mask” until her results come in showing she’s positive. WTF

CVS?

 

[Sigblitz]

That's messed up.

 

[longbow]

Anyone hear of a hospital that does not have a case yet? The ones around me are in lock down
.

 

[ghuns]

Let's hope this dude is right...

Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: 'We're going to be fine'

 

[Ballstater98]

I have 0 interest in being tested.

 

[qwerty]

Updated the spreadsheet with the latest numbers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...F2nSBMG8kMCK6dQZXk8zxhBvXgyDgjgXJc_K7/pubhtml

A little personal testimony: I was a bit late this morning since I stopped by to pick-up a couple cases of masks, a case of hand sanitizer wall dispensers and two cases of hand sanitizer from our local FEMA. We inquired Friday about filling out the form to pick them up, and they said to not bother with the form and just stop by. It appeared that they had plenty in supply. We got caught up talking about all this, but basically they received a ton of equipment to battle, SARS, MERS, H1N1, Influenza, etc from the Feds. They have not been depleting the supply but rotating the stock as necessary. Other areas (he mentioned IL) have just been using it as necessary over the years as a "cost savings" without replenishment but felt that the Region 5 had ample supply to supplement their shortfall. He also filled me in on how the regions are divided up and how that may be impactful to New York.

I also saw some activity last night from a [STRIKE]reporter[/STRIKE] Managing Partner for a Chicago Radio Station: https://twitter.com/mattonair

He was traveling around to Chicago Hospitals.

At his point, I really don't know what to think anymore.....

 

[T.Lex]

For those of you interested, here's some new amateur modeling numbers.

But first, we're under both projections from last Thursday, by at least 50%. That's good. We're beating the worst case scenario(s) ("WCS"). The error rate for the straight 1.5x multiplier is about 16.5% on a day-to-day basis. In the real world, that would suck for a model. For me, that is basically the WCS. Since the daily average increase (I call it the L33 rate because of the cell in which it is calculated) is dynamic, it is going to be more accurate on a day-to-day basis. That is running at about a 3.5% error rate. That isn't great in the real world, but isn't too shabby for me. (I can explain how I calculate this if anyone is interested.) Also, I'm waiting for a certain INGOer to update a certain public spreadsheet, but in the meantime have come up with my own best-guess for what the numbers are the last 2 days.

So, through the end of the month, I have this speculation for total deaths:

1.5x	1.42x
626	591	3/23/20
939	838	3/24/20
1,409	1,188	3/25/20
2,113	1,684	3/26/20
3,169	2,388	3/27/20
4,754	3,386	3/28/20
7,131	4,801	3/29/20
10,696	6,807	3/30/20
16,044	9,651	3/31/20

Interestingly, the 1.5x has cut about 10k deaths by the end of the month from the prior prediction. That's good.

 

[hoosierdoc]

400,000 a year die from smoking each year yet it's legal. And it overwhelms our healthcare system.

But we destroyed our economy and the lives of tens of millions on purpose.

Why are some lives more valuable?

 

[T.Lex]

400,000 a year die from smoking each yet it's legal. And it overwhelms our healthcare system.

But we destroyed our economy and the lives of tens of millions on purpose.

The people who smoke choose to. Because freedom.

No one that I am aware of has chosen to get COVID-19.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

400,000 a year die from smoking each year yet it's legal. And it overwhelms our healthcare system.

But we destroyed our economy and the lives of tens of millions on purpose.

Why are some lives more valuable?

Keying off some of the things I’ve heard/read guys like Rand Paul and Thomas Masse say, if the power that the government has exerted in an effort to curb this outbreak is deemed successful, then the seeds may well have been planted for them to later take analogous steps in the future for other problems...maybe even the ones you highlight.