To Mask or Not to Mask?

[dusty88]

"We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 30 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic.”

-- New England Journal of Medicine.

I suggest everyone read the rest of the article for a more complete perspective. I also suggest adding the knowledge we've gained since April 1 about the possibility of the viral droplets hanging in the air for 2-3 hours, and the likelihood that asymptomatic spread is a bigger component than was thought to be in March.

 

[Mark-DuCo]

SO... Now *YOU* are trying to tell me what I said?
At no time did I say "Everyone will be dead".

What I said was it's a dead nut, non arguable FACT you can be reinfected.
It's been in the US long enough for reinfection to happen, undisputed medical fact under controlled scientific conditions.

What I said was (and provided links) is the reinfected show worse symptoms in the scientifically controlled conditions.
Since it's very new, we don't know what percentage will reinfect, or if the majority will have worse symptoms the second or third time around.

What I said was there are consequences for children, what percentage isn't clear...
Or for how long those children will have the inflammation response, could be a few weeks, could be a lifetime.

What I said was, you have to be the worst kind of 'Special' to think it's a good idea to spread it around,
WAY too soon to know if a 'Herd Immunity' can even be had, and with current discoveries in research, it's looking doubtful.
That makes anyone intentionally getting infected and spreading it around the worst thing that can happen since we know so little about it.

What I said was, the 'Internet Experts' that think it's no worse than a cold or common flu have rocks in their heads,
And if they choose to run around without a mask, dangerous rock heads....

What literally every medical professional in the world told you...
Social distance, wear a mask, disinfect correctly, and in about a month the current cases will clear.
In about six weeks of continuous drops in infection, you can START to cautiously reopen with testing safeguards in place to catch outbreaks early.
Other countries did it, and they are pretty much over it,
The ones that tried the stupid idea of 'Herd Immunity' are up to their eyeballs in infections, after effects of infections & death.

*IF* the boneheads had done what the medical professionals told them for the last 3 months, infection rates would be nearly zero by now,
Instead of 10% of the population running around trying to infect the other 90%...

BUT...
Some dimbulb decided to make it a political issue... And here we are with ICUs overflowing, infections over 10%, when the initial outbreaks were under 1%
So now the childish temper tantrums about "Not Wanting To Wear Masks, Wash Hands" has made for a 10X increase in about a month...
AND, its in states that had few initial cases and 'Wanted' to reopen without/ignored restrictions!

The fact of the matter is, children with chicken pox or measels 'WANT' to go out and play, and now everyone is paying the price for those temper tantrums. ZERO self discipline is what got us into this mess...
AND YET... Endless pages of the same old crap, doing exactly what the actual medical professionals warned AGAINST, and now disproven but still flowing neck deep.

You can't fix stupid, but in this case it might make the Darwin awards.

Just to hit on a few points, according to Indiana's Covid website, only 10.8% of the states ICU beds are being used for Covid patients. That is not even close to overflowing and only 2.4% of ventilators are being used.

The death rate has been at a steady plummet since April, when it was around 30 per day, now its less than 5 per day.

More tests equals more positive cases, and it looks like almost all (like 99%) the positive cases are people who get sick like they have the flu and recover just fine.

https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm

 

[bobzilla]

LMAO they don’t care about the children? This sounds like anti gunners after sandy hook. Good lord. And these science professionals you keep quoting told us masks didn’t help 3 months ago. And summer would kill it. And protesting is fine it won’t spread it. Believe whatever “professional” you want. I’m still not wearing one.

In all fairness I don’t care about the children. Or the old people. Or the young ones. Or the middle aged ones. Those kids? They’re gonna die. Old people? Yep. Young ones? Same.

the only thing constant is no one gets out of here alive. What’s important is what you do with your time. Living in fear is NOT how I am living my life.

one more ****ing person tells me how heartless I am .... well they’re right. Y’all done pushed and pushed and pushed to the point where I’d have to find 3 ****s just to give one.

 

[dusty88]

Just to hit on a few points, according to Indiana's Covid website, only 10.8% of the states ICU beds are being used for Covid patients. That is not even close to overflowing and only 2.4% of ventilators are being used.

Only 10% are being used for a disease new to us this year? I guess the questions are
-How often does a hospital normally have spare ICU facilities? I don't know the answer precisely but I know sometimes ICUs are full and divert to other nearby ICUs so maybe 10% is a lot, maybe it isn't.

-What exactly does this "capacity" consist of? A friend of mine manages a suburban ICU. They nearly tripled their ICU size in April to accomodate Covid patients. But it's not just getting the facility and the major equipment and proper HVAC systems. The biggest problem is trained personnel. They did some crash-training of other healthcare workers over 30 days. Still, they didn't have the one-on-one nursing a person would normally get if they go to the ICU. Any circumstances of diminished care are also going to affect other parts of the hospital.
By the way, he said they took down their extra ICU setup (good) but the state still lists their expanded ICU as regular capacity.

I don't know if Indiana's hospitals will get stretched again, but by the time they get stretched with Covid it's a foregone conclusion there will be a lot more cases rolling in if community transmission hasn't already been slowed when the hospitalizations start to go up.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Late to the game, but to answer OP's question, yes, I wear a mask whenever I'll be indoors in a place open to the public. I've done so prior to the "cool" kids saying that I "had" to, before they even said I should, in fact when they were saying that I shouldn't and flat out lied to me that masks did no good and that, in fact, I would INCREASE my chances of becoming infected by wearing one. What hooey! I said then, and repeat now, that the medical experts and the media were destroying their credibility by lying to combat panic buying when that horse was already out of the stable and two counties away.

I read the same Vietnamese hospital study mentioned often and came away with a slightly different take than some others ... healthcare workers in high risk respiratory illness wards, working full shifts for a month (25 days of working) with two layer cloth masks were about twice (5.6%) as likely to contract a respiratory illness as the ones wearing medical masks (2.9%). So, after a month of full shifts around highly contagious patents, 34 of the 607 health care workers wearing cloth masks contracted some form of respiratory illness.

So my take was, wait, only 5-6% when working full shifts in high contagion wards for a month!?!?! My take away was that cloth masks offered some protection, especially if I was just doing the necessaries in grocery stores, etc and keeping my distance from others, versus the HCW who were actively working on high contagion patients all day long. So, I wore a two ply fabric mask under a synthetic fabric yowsie... which with the hat and glasses gave me a great "bank robber" look that "helped" people stay 6 foot or more away! Lol!

Plus if I was unknowingly asymptomatically contagious, I would be less likely to spread it. Back in the days when there was such a thing as Boy Scouts, we would call this being civic-minded. Cost me $20 for the masks, I already had the yowsies from color fun runs, and about 20 seconds to mask up prior to going into stores.

Now, 3-ply non-woven poly masks are abundantly available, cost about 60 cents, so I use those.

So, when I was told NOT to wear a mask, I did anyhow because I believed it was the right thing to do for me, for mine (I have loved ones who are either at risk or provide care for those who are) and so that just in case I get it, I'm less likely to spread it while I have no symptoms.

And now that I'm being TOLD that I should, or that I MUST because they are or may become MANDATORY ... I wear them anyhow because I believe it is the right thing to do for me, and mine, and anyone else I happen to be around when I'm in public.

My feelings about them are similar to seat belts. They don't "death proof" you in the event of an accident, they are not 100%, but there is a sufficiently good enough chance that they will save you, or prevent more serious injury, that they are a good idea that is well worth the minor inconvenience of using them.

Should everyone use seat belts? Yes. Should seat belts be mandatory and yet another thing on the list of things for police to have to police? No... well, unless you're my kid, and then they are, but I'll do that "policing" myself! Lol!

So, if you feel differently about masks having some effect for both you the wearer and the general public reducing R0, the rate of spread, or chose to not wear one simply as a means of protest or other beliefs, I think you're wrong, but I also believe that you have that right to follow your beliefs.

tl;dr: Yup, wore them when we were lied to and told not to... that they don't work... will still wear them even if TOLD to... because they work "enough" to be worth the minimal hassle and cost, both for myself, my loved ones and total strangers.

 

[dusty88]

Late to the game, but to answer OP's question, yes, I wear a mask whenever I'll be indoors in a place open to the public. I've done so prior to the "cool" kids saying that I "had" to, before they even said I should, in fact when they were saying that I shouldn't and flat out lied to me that masks did no good and that, in fact, I would INCREASE my chances of becoming infected by wearing one. What hooey! I said then, and repeat now, that the medical experts and the media were destroying their credibility by lying to combat panic buying when that horse was already out of the stable and two counties away.

I read the same Vietnamese hospital study mentioned often and came away with a slightly different take than some others ... healthcare workers in high risk respiratory illness wards, working full shifts for a month (25 days of working) with two layer cloth masks were about twice (5.6%) as likely to contract a respiratory illness as the ones wearing medical masks (2.9%). So, after a month of full shifts around highly contagious patents, 34 of the 607 health care workers wearing cloth masks contracted some form of respiratory illness.

So my take was, wait, only 5-6% when working full shifts in high contagion wards for a month!?!?! My take away was that cloth masks offered some protection, especially if I was just doing the necessaries in grocery stores, etc and keeping my distance from others, versus the HCW who were actively working on high contagion patients all day long. So, I wore a two ply fabric mask under a synthetic fabric yowsie... which with the hat and glasses gave me a great "bank robber" look that "helped" people stay 6 foot or more away! Lol!

Plus if I was unknowingly asymptomatically contagious, I would be less likely to spread it. Back in the days when there was such a thing as Boy Scouts, we would call this being civic-minded. Cost me $20 for the masks, I already had the yowsies from color fun runs, and about 20 seconds to mask up prior to going into stores.

Now, 3-ply non-woven poly masks are abundantly available, cost about 60 cents, so I use those.

So, when I was told NOT to wear a mask, I did anyhow because I believed it was the right thing to do for me, for mine (I have loved ones who are either at risk or provide care for those who are) and so that just in case I get it, I'm less likely to spread it while I have no symptoms.

And now that I'm being TOLD that I should, or that I MUST because they are or may become MANDATORY ... I wear them anyhow because I believe it is the right thing to do for me, and mine, and anyone else I happen to be around when I'm in public.

My feelings about them are similar to seat belts. They don't "death proof" you in the event of an accident, they are not 100%, but there is a sufficiently good enough chance that they will save you, or prevent more serious injury, that they are a good idea that is well worth the minor inconvenience of using them.

Should everyone use seat belts? Yes. Should seat belts be mandatory and yet another thing on the list of things for police to have to police? No... well, unless you're my kid, and then they are, but I'll do that "policing" myself! Lol!

So, if you feel differently about masks having some effect for both you the wearer and the general public reducing R0, the rate of spread, or chose to not wear one simply as a means of protest or other beliefs, I think you're wrong, but I also believe that you have that right to follow your beliefs.

THIS !

 

[BugI02]

SO... Now *YOU* are trying to tell me what I said?
At no time did I say "Everyone will be dead".

What I said was it's a dead nut, non arguable FACT you can be reinfected.
It's been in the US long enough for reinfection to happen, undisputed medical fact under controlled scientific conditions.

What I said was (and provided links) is the reinfected show worse symptoms in the scientifically controlled conditions.
Since it's very new, we don't know what percentage will reinfect, or if the majority will have worse symptoms the second or third time around.

What I said was there are consequences for children, what percentage isn't clear...
Or for how long those children will have the inflammation response, could be a few weeks, could be a lifetime.

What I said was, you have to be the worst kind of 'Special' to think it's a good idea to spread it around,
WAY too soon to know if a 'Herd Immunity' can even be had, and with current discoveries in research, it's looking doubtful.
That makes anyone intentionally getting infected and spreading it around the worst thing that can happen since we know so little about it.

What I said was, the 'Internet Experts' that think it's no worse than a cold or common flu have rocks in their heads,
And if they choose to run around without a mask, dangerous rock heads....

What literally every medical professional in the world told you...
Social distance, wear a mask, disinfect correctly, and in about a month the current cases will clear.
In about six weeks of continuous drops in infection, you can START to cautiously reopen with testing safeguards in place to catch outbreaks early.
Other countries did it, and they are pretty much over it,
The ones that tried the stupid idea of 'Herd Immunity' are up to their eyeballs in infections, after effects of infections & death.

*IF* the boneheads had done what the medical professionals told them for the last 3 months, infection rates would be nearly zero by now,
Instead of 10% of the population running around trying to infect the other 90%...

BUT...
Some dimbulb decided to make it a political issue... And here we are with ICUs overflowing, infections over 10%, when the initial outbreaks were under 1%
So now the childish temper tantrums about "Not Wanting To Wear Masks, Wash Hands" has made for a 10X increase in about a month...
AND, its in states that had few initial cases and 'Wanted' to reopen without/ignored restrictions!

The fact of the matter is, children with chicken pox or measels 'WANT' to go out and play, and now everyone is paying the price for those temper tantrums. ZERO self discipline is what got us into this mess...
AND YET... Endless pages of the same old crap, doing exactly what the actual medical professionals warned AGAINST, and now disproven but still flowing neck deep.

You can't fix stupid, but in this case it might make the Darwin awards.

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
Findings from investigation and analysis of re-positive cases

FINDINGS FROM INVESTIGATION AND ANALYSIS OF RE-POSITIVE CASES
○ Based on active monitoring, epidemiological investigation, and laboratory testing of re-positive cases and their contacts, no evidence was found that indicated infectivity of re-positive cases.
- Of the 447 re-positive cases as of 15 May, epidemiological investigation was conducted on 285 cases and laboratory analysis on 108 cases. (*473 as of 18 May)
- From monitoring of 790 contacts of the 285 re-positive cases, no case was found that was newly infected solely from contact with re-positive cases during re-positive period.
- Virus isolation in cell culture of respiratory samples of 108 re-positive cases, all result was negative (i.e. virus not isolated).
- Of the 23 re-positive cases from which the first and the second serum samples were obtained, 96% were positive for neutralizing antibodies.

PROTOCOLS FOR MANAGEMENT OF CONFIRMED AND RE-POSITIVE CASES
○ Management of confirmed cases after discharge from isolation and management of re-positive cases will no longer be conducted. (Effective 0:00 of 19 May)

 

[hoosierdoc]

Just to hit on a few points, according to Indiana's Covid website, only 10.8% of the states ICU beds are being used for Covid patients. That is not even close to overflowing and only 2.4% of ventilators are being used.

The death rate has been at a steady plummet since April, when it was around 30 per day, now its less than 5 per day.

More tests equals more positive cases, and it looks like almost all (like 99%) the positive cases are people who get sick like they have the flu and recover just fine.

https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm

we are seeing an up-tick in sick people in indy

 

[drillsgt]

https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
Findings from investigation and analysis of re-positive cases

I thought we put this whole getting 're-infected' with covid to bed a month or two ago?

 

[drillsgt]

we are seeing an up-tick in sick people in indy

'Flu' sick or going to die sick?

 

[hoosierdoc]

'Flu' sick or going to die sick?

both. not overwhelming, but trending up

 

[BugI02]

Just to hit on a few points, according to Indiana's Covid website, only 10.8% of the states ICU beds are being used for Covid patients. That is not even close to overflowing and only 2.4% of ventilators are being used.

The death rate has been at a steady plummet since April, when it was around 30 per day, now its less than 5 per day.

More tests equals more positive cases, and it looks like almost all (like 99%) the positive cases are people who get sick like they have the flu and recover just fine.

https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm

Only 10% are being used for a disease new to us this year? I guess the questions are
-How often does a hospital normally have spare ICU facilities? I don't know the answer precisely but I know sometimes ICUs are full and divert to other nearby ICUs so maybe 10% is a lot, maybe it isn't.

[Mark quoted you statewide ICU numbers. How often do hospitals divert patients across state lines?]

-What exactly does this "capacity" consist of? A friend of mine manages a suburban ICU. They nearly tripled their ICU size in April to accomodate Covid patients. But it's not just getting the facility and the major equipment and proper HVAC systems. The biggest problem is trained personnel. They did some crash-training of other healthcare workers over 30 days. Still, they didn't have the one-on-one nursing a person would normally get if they go to the ICU. Any circumstances of diminished care are also going to affect other parts of the hospital.
By the way, he said they took down their extra ICU setup (good) but the state still lists their expanded ICU as regular capacity.

[So, even using your numbers and assuming ICU space pre-surge was 1/3 what it is now, that would only make statewide ICU usage 32.4% using the old capacities as a benchmark. Still nowhere near crisis/overflowing]

I don't know if Indiana's hospitals will get stretched again, but by the time they get stretched with Covid it's a foregone conclusion there will be a lot more cases rolling in if community transmission hasn't already been slowed when the hospitalizations start to go up.

According to the CDC, the most recent WuVid 19cumulative hospitalization rate is 107.2 per 100000 cases. According to Worldometers, the 7 day rolling average for daily new cases in Indiana was 529 as of 13 Jul, that represents around 17 new hospitalizations per 30 day month. Even ignoring the percentage of those hospitalizations that will recover during that month and be discharged, that is hardly a rate that will overwhelm healthcare.

 

[BugI02]

I thought we put this whole getting 're-infected' with covid to bed a month or two ago?

View attachment 88901

 

[dusty88]

[So, even using your numbers and assuming ICU space pre-surge was 1/3 what it is now, that would only make statewide ICU usage 32.4% using the old capacities as a benchmark. Still nowhere near crisis/overflowing]

I think you mean that would make Covid currently using about 30% of the statewide ICU, right? And to be clear I am not suggesting all ICUs are listed at an expanded capacity. I only know how it was recorded for one hospital.

However, going back to the main point here: it doesn't take much stress on the ICU system to get to a point where care-per-patient is dropping and where there is a stress on equipment and medications.

The drug shortages overflow into some routine care needs and veterinary needs as well. In other words, it causes multiple problems for society.

This is not so simple as "ignore Covid and everything else including the economy and other health issues will be back to normal"

 

[bwframe]

we are seeing an up-tick in sick people in indy

both. not overwhelming, but trending up

Any way to tie it to behavioral changes doc?

Masks? No masks? Lack of social distancing? Face touching?

Reopening?

Rioters?

 

[dusty88]

I thought we put this whole getting 're-infected' with covid to bed a month or two ago?

I don't think it's known for certain either way. It would be somewhat apocalyptic if this virus didn't product immunity for at least a few months, and especially if it instead produced antibody-dependent enhancement.

I still don't think either of those are likely though

I suspect the claimed "reinfections" are people who are chronically ill from Covid, plus are still testing positive from some dead viral fragments in their cells (the latter is very common with PCR testing)

A group of monkeys were infected with SARSCov 2, then reinfected a few weeks later and they all showed immunity. I don't recall the exact time frame but so far we can hope people have at least a few months immunity after they have Covid19

 

[dusty88]

Any way to tie it to behavioral changes doc?

Masks? No masks? Lack of social distancing? Face touching?

Reopening?

Rioters?

We obviously don't have that kind of controlled study but if you look around the country, it appears it takes about 2 mo after increasing activity to see it affect enough people that in turn it becomes a problem for hospitals, testing, etc

 

[BugI02]

I don't think it's known for certain either way. It would be somewhat apocalyptic if this virus didn't product immunity for at least a few months, and especially if it instead produced antibody-dependent enhancement.

I still don't think either of those are likely though

I suspect the claimed "reinfections" are people who are chronically ill from Covid, plus are still testing positive from some dead viral fragments in their cells (the latter is very common with PCR testing)

A group of monkeys were infected with SARSCov 2, then reinfected a few weeks later and they all showed immunity. I don't recall the exact time frame but so far we can hope people have at least a few months immunity after they have Covid19

Based on what I have read, there is reasonably high confidence in immunity lasting at least 2 - 3 months, and via comparison to SARS-COV1 data an expectation of at least 1 year

 

[hoosierdoc]

Any way to tie it to behavioral changes doc?

Masks? No masks? Lack of social distancing? Face touching?

Reopening?

Rioters?

I can't answer that. frankly I don't care. it's a bad flu. go live your life

if you get sick, isolate yourself. if you're an at risk demographic, isolate yourself.

 

[drillsgt]

I can't answer that. frankly I don't care. it's a bad flu. go live your life

if you get sick, isolate yourself. if you're an at risk demographic, isolate yourself.

Now you did it...