Coronovirus IV

[Ingomike]

Sigh

7 day moving average for new deaths in Sweden is 2, in a population of 10.1 million or 0.02 per 100000

7 day moving average of new deaths in the US is 980 per week, in a population of 331.3 million or about 0.296 per 100000 - 15 times the death rate

US deaths per 100000 is 54.7

Sweden deaths per 100000 is 57.5

US needs about 9300 more deaths to surpass Sweden's mortality rate, which you proffer as a reason to ridicule Sweden as an example. That's only 9 1/2 more weeks at the current US rate of new death. And then Sweden's new death rate will still be effectively zero, and how will you distract from the fact they have established herd immunity then?

But by all means, keep wearing that mask

worldometers data, by the way

must spread some Reputation around before giving it to BugI02 again.

 

[BugI02]

We are well on our way to 200,000 dead... and that's with lock downs, distancing, hand washing like never before, masks... please point me to the bad flu season that matches this.

And that's just counting the dead... as far as I know, flu does attack other organs. COVID attack via the ACE surface of the cells... the lungs have the highest concentration of ACE... second is the heart. They are now seeing heart damage in those who survive EVEN MILD CASES.

Never heard of people with the flu having strokes due to massive blood clotting. Yeah, even the young'uns that survive, but are impaired due to strokes.

This ain't the flu.

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19s-scary-blood-clots-arent-that-surprising/
Covid-19's Scary Blood Clots Aren't That Surprising
There's more than a century of research linking clogged blood vessels to infectious diseases.

The study of disease-induced clotting stretches back more than a century. Writing in 1903, pathologists described the same phenomenon in typhoid fever. Adam Cunningham, an immunologist at the University of Birmingham, notes that many common bacteria, such as Helicobacter pylori and Escherichia coli, have also been associated with an increased risk of blood clots. If this fact has mostly been forgotten, it may be on account of our success at treating such infections. “One of the things that probably made a big difference was the introduction of the antibiotic era, so many of the pathogens didn’t get that severe,” Cunningham says.


In 2006, I wrote up a large-scale study finding that patients suffering from respiratory or urinary tract infections were at doubled risk of developing deep vein thrombosis, a potentially fatal complication of abnormal clotting. Then I, too, forgot about it. (The actual magnitude of this risk has not been pinned down.) That’s just one of many such findings, though. Other viruses associated with clotting complications include hepatitis, measles, and HIV. There are similar reports in cases of H1N1, also known as swine flu: Canadian doctors looked at the records of 119 patients hospitalized during the 2009 pandemic outbreak of that disease and found that seven had experienced major clots. These occurred everywhere from the patients’ lungs to their arms.

 

[BugI02]

Name the last time "just a bad flu season" exceeded hospital and morgue capacity.

We've had "bad flu seasons" before. I don't recall the infrastructure issues, although maybe it happened someplace. I'd appreciate any links, or in the absence of links, your best recollection of that happening.

1918

 

[JettaKnight]

1918

I was going to say something like that, but I wasn't sure if the 1957 Asian Flu was bad enough to qualify.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Sigh

7 day moving average for new deaths in Sweden is 2, in a population of 10.1 million or 0.02 per 100000

7 day moving average of new deaths in the US is 980 per week, in a population of 331.3 million or about 0.296 per 100000 - 15 times the death rate

US deaths per 100000 is 54.7

Sweden deaths per 100000 is 57.5

US needs about 9300 more deaths to surpass Sweden's mortality rate, which you proffer as a reason to ridicule Sweden as an example. That's only 9 1/2 more weeks at the current US rate of new death. And then Sweden's new death rate will still be effectively zero, and how will you distract from the fact they have established herd immunity then?

But by all means, keep wearing that mask

worldometers data, by the way

@BugI02, while I don't doubt your numbers, comparing Sweden to the US for COVID policy decisions is apples and oranges. Far too many other important variables. The US has almost twice the rate of adult diabetes (IDF) and three times the rate of obesity, both heavy contributing factors to COVID mortality. I couldn't find comparative stats on morbid obesity, but I'm guessing those would be even more striking.

The medical/health demographics of the two populations aren't the same... not even close.

For countries with similar populations but with different SARS-Cov-2 policies, Norway, Finland and Denmark are much closer in population demographics, and geography, and did not do the herd immunity approach... and have a death rate one fifth (Denmark) to one tenth (Norway) that of Sweden.

Also, all four of those countries exhibit high degrees of social conformance versus American individualism. Whether it's a recommendation or mandate, in those countries, there are high degrees of conformance, here, not so much.

If you want to compare the US to a Scandinavian country, why not pick one of the other three that has/had similar policies to the US states. Why do they have so much lower death rates? IMO, a lot of it has to do with health demographics, population densities, etc. and part of it has to do with following the recommendations/mandates BEFORE massive outbreaks in a city or region or state.

 

[Ingomike]

@BugI02, while I don't doubt your numbers, comparing Sweden to the US for COVID policy decisions is apples and oranges. Far too many other important variables. The US has almost twice the rate of adult diabetes (IDF) and three times the rate of obesity, both heavy contributing factors to COVID mortality. I couldn't find comparative stats on morbid obesity, but I'm guessing those would be even more striking.

So wealthy Americans eating themselves to death is the reason for the death rate?

 

[SheepDog4Life]

So wealthy Americans eating themselves to death is the reason for the death rate?

Actually, poor diet at the opposite end of the economic scale. High rates of obesity/morbid obesity of the poor is a thing... and high rates of diabetes follow.

ETA: NIH/ADA: Poverty and Obesity in the U.S.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ar...sity were,145% greater than wealthy counties.

 

[BugI02]

@BugI02, while I don't doubt your numbers, comparing Sweden to the US for COVID policy decisions is apples and oranges. Far too many other important variables. The US has almost twice the rate of adult diabetes (IDF) and three times the rate of obesity, both heavy contributing factors to COVID mortality. I couldn't find comparative stats on morbid obesity, but I'm guessing those would be even more striking.

The medical/health demographics of the two populations aren't the same... not even close.

For countries with similar populations but with different SARS-Cov-2 policies, Norway, Finland and Denmark are much closer in population demographics, and geography, and did not do the herd immunity approach... and have a death rate one fifth (Denmark) to one tenth (Norway) that of Sweden.

Also, all four of those countries exhibit high degrees of social conformance versus American individualism. Whether it's a recommendation or mandate, in those countries, there are high degrees of conformance, here, not so much.

If you want to compare the US to a Scandinavian country, why not pick one of the other three that has/had similar policies to the US states. Why do they have so much lower death rates? IMO, a lot of it has to do with health demographics, population densities, etc. and part of it has to do with following the recommendations/mandates BEFORE massive outbreaks in a city or region or state.

Firstly, if we wish to look at a first world country that took the alternate route (no masking, no business shutdown, favor as normal a life as possible) as a comparison, Sweden is probably it

You may recall I raised the same objection when people wanted to cite Japan's levels of mask wearing as if that alone explained their lower death rate

Let's take one of your suggested countries and use the 'case fatality rate' that Hough was proffering in place of the more commonly recorded fatalities per million or 100k or cases per million or 100k

Denmark 623 deaths 16480 cases, CFR is 3.78%

US 181486 deaths 5924778 cases, CFR is 3.06% - Denmark is nearly 25% higher

So did Denmark do something wrong or the US do something right? Or is it just a way to use how data is selected and presented to further the posters favored agenda?

Finland has 335 deaths and 7981 cases. OMG their CFR is 4.2% - more than 1/3 greater than the US!!! How could they be so incompetent and cruel

Finland has less than 1/2 the rate of testing per million as the US, Denmark has more than 3x the rate of Finland and ~1.6x that of the US. Do you think that that disparity in the denominator of the CFR could affect the results?

I think people can't complain about how any given countries numbers are presented and do the same themselves

I do think that how Sweden proceeded is enough different from just about everyone else that some valid inferences can still be drawn. They have more per capita death, but their rate of new death is very low. I think that supports the argument that their method front-end loaded their death stats and that the rest of us will catch up in absence of an effective vaccine and I think perhaps we should be pursuing herd immunity in those least vulnerable while awaiting a vaccine. Many of the people who have died and will die, especially in the over 75 part of the spectrum, could just as easily have been felled by a strain of flu. I realize every death matters to someone, but whether those folks would have died anyway in the next year is difficult to quantify, complicating that whole excess death thing

I think the damage we have done to our economy will last much longer, possibly to no good or lasting purpose

 

[Ingomike]

Firstly, if we wish to look at a first world country that took the alternate route (no masking, no business shutdown, favor as normal a life as possible) as a comparison, Sweden is probably it

You may recall I raised the same objection when people wanted to cite Japan's levels of mask wearing as if that alone explained their lower death rate

Let's take one of your suggested countries and use the 'case fatality rate' that Hough was proffering in place of the more commonly recorded fatalities per million or 100k or cases per million or 100k

Denmark 623 deaths 16480 cases, CFR is 3.78%

US 181486 deaths 5924778 cases, CFR is 3.06% - Denmark is nearly 25% higher

So did Denmark do something wrong or the US do something right? Or is it just a way to use how data is selected and presented to further the posters favored agenda?

Finland has 335 deaths and 7981 cases. OMG their CFR is 4.2% - more than 1/3 greater than the US!!! How could they be so incompetent and cruel

Finland has less than 1/2 the rate of testing per million as the US, Denmark has more than 3x the rate of Finland and ~1.6x that of the US. Do you think that that disparity in the denominator of the CFR could affect the results?

I think people can't complain about how any given countries numbers are presented and do the same themselves

I do think that how Sweden proceeded is enough different from just about everyone else that some valid inferences can still be drawn. They have more per capita death, but their rate of new death is very low. I think that supports the argument that their method front-end loaded their death stats and that the rest of us will catch up in absence of an effective vaccine and I think perhaps we should be pursuing herd immunity in those least vulnerable while awaiting a vaccine. Many of the people who have died and will die, especially in the over 75 part of the spectrum, could just as easily have been felled by a strain of flu. I realize every death matters to someone, but whether those folks would have died anyway in the next year is difficult to quantify, complicating that whole excess death thing

I think the damage we have done to our economy will last much longer, possibly to no good or lasting purpose

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to BugI02 again.

 

[Ingomike]

Actually, poor diet at the opposite end of the economic scale. High rates of obesity/morbid obesity of the poor is a thing... and high rates of diabetes follow.

ETA: NIH/ADA: Poverty and Obesity in the U.S.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/ar...sity were,145% greater than wealthy counties.

There are no poor in the US as compared to the world. Massive numbers have AC, big TV's, expensive phones and plenty of money for junk food and fast food. We are all rich Americans to most of the world, and we all have poor diets...

*all = big majority...

 

[actaeon277]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/can...y-cancelled-terminal-diagnosis-170431554.html
[h=1]Man becomes first known cancer victim to reveal terminal diagnosis after surgery was cancelled due to coronavirus[/h]

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Firstly, if we wish to look at a first world country that took the alternate route (no masking, no business shutdown, favor as normal a life as possible) as a comparison, Sweden is probably it

True dat! UK started down that road, but flinched.

You may recall I raised the same objection when people wanted to cite Japan's levels of mask wearing as if that alone explained their lower death rate

Hmmm... I don't recall it being about death rates specifically, at least my inputs, because Japan also has a healthier population, but more about infection rates in densely populated areas... say versus NYC. Japan is doing something right, one of the things they do is masks. Note also that the PacRim countries had rough experiences with SARS, so they have other processes (like contact tracing, quarantining the sick and contacts, etc) that they developed from that experience. It ain't their first rodeo, they have multiple arrows in the quiver.

Let's take one of your suggested countries and use the 'case fatality rate' that Hough was proffering in place of the more commonly recorded fatalities per million or 100k or cases per million or 100k

Denmark 623 deaths 16480 cases, CFR is 3.78%

US 181486 deaths 5924778 cases, CFR is 3.06% - Denmark is nearly 25% higher

So did Denmark do something wrong or the US do something right? Or is it just a way to use how data is selected and presented to further the posters favored agenda?

Well, to compare those means that you have to rely on testing finding all cases, or at least equally proportionally finding cases. No idea if Denmark has "open testing" where anyone, without any symptoms, can freely get tested. IMO, while the positivity rate was a meaningful measure early, with severely limited testing available, I do believe that in the US we now have testing capacity to drive the positivity rate down by testing.

So, I dunno... but what I can say with certainty is that neither the US number of cases nor the Denmark number of cases is anywhere near accurate. Many more people were infected in both countries. Was the measurement error the same in each? You would have to assume that they were in order to compare CFRs. Ditto treatment protocols and availability. Did Denmark poohpooh HCQ while US docs prescribed it? Many variables there to account for in the CFR.

Finland has 335 deaths and 7981 cases. OMG their CFR is 4.2% - more than 1/3 greater than the US!!! How could they be so incompetent and cruel

Finland has less than 1/2 the rate of testing per million as the US, Denmark has more than 3x the rate of Finland and ~1.6x that of the US. Do you think that that disparity in the denominator of the CFR could affect the results?

Yup, see above. Have you looked to see the percentage of deaths from long term care facilities in each? Those are drivers in the per capita death rate, and I would suspect even more so in countries (like Finland and Denmark) that have VASTLY lower per capita death rates than a comparison country... in this case you're comparing to the US.

Once this gets into LTCs it is devastating... and this appears to be due to elderly having substanitally lower T-cell produciton due to aging of the thymus.

But again, US vs any Scandinavian country is vastly different populations, demographics, densities, etc.

Still wondering why not compare similar, neighboring countries with different COVID policies if the purpose is to determine the effectiveness of the policy?

I think people can't complain about how any given countries numbers are presented and do the same themselves

I do think that how Sweden proceeded is enough different from just about everyone else that some valid inferences can still be drawn. They have more per capita death, but their rate of new death is very low. I think that supports the argument that their method front-end loaded their death stats and that the rest of us will catch up in absence of an effective vaccine and I think perhaps we should be pursuing herd immunity in those least vulnerable while awaiting a vaccine. Many of the people who have died and will die, especially in the over 75 part of the spectrum, could just as easily have been felled by a strain of flu. I realize every death matters to someone, but whether those folks would have died anyway in the next year is difficult to quantify, complicating that whole excess death thing

It is a valid argument, and in the end, we may all end up at the same place, regardless of what we do. I'm not ready to throw that nihilism towel in just yet, lol! One thing that no one has been good at doing is protecting the vulnerable. When the infection is widespread in the community, it will get through the door of the long term care facilities.

And, I think you are partly correct that a really bad flu with ineffective shots would have been enough to be fatal for some of the elderly. IMO, the dividing line on that is the COVID-pneumonia deaths versus the COVID-ARDS deaths. I also read that COVID is 7x's more likely to cause ischemic strokes than the flu (our earlier clotting discussion)... though both are "low"... 1.6% vs 0.2%.

I think the damage we have done to our economy will last much longer, possibly to no good or lasting purpose

No doubt there has been extensive damage to the economy... how long lasting and whether or not it was worth it, IMO, is yet to be seen.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

There are no poor in the US as compared to the world. Massive numbers have AC, big TV's, expensive phones and plenty of money for junk food and fast food. We are all rich Americans to most of the world, and we all have poor diets...

*all = big majority...

Read the report... obesity and diabetes affect those at/near the poverty line by 2-3x those in the middle and above... McD's dollar menu is much cheaper than fresh fruits/vegetables and those in the lowest economic brackets frequently live in "food deserts" without an accessible grocery store (or they loot and burn down the only one they have ). They get their groceries from dollar stores and such.

 

[HoughMade]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/can...y-cancelled-terminal-diagnosis-170431554.html
Man becomes first known cancer victim to reveal terminal diagnosis after surgery was cancelled due to coronavirus

20+ years of med mal work including many a "delayed diagnosis" cases and I have yet to see one where 4 months was the deciding factor.

I'm sure it happens, I'm also sure it is rare.

I actually think that this is more a story about the NHS than COVID. Emergent surgeries were taking place everywhere in the U.S. even at the height of the "lockdown".

 

[Ingomike]

Read the report... obesity and diabetes affect those at/near the poverty line by 2-3x those in the middle and above... McD's dollar menu is much cheaper than fresh fruits/vegetables and those in the lowest economic brackets frequently live in "food deserts" without an accessible grocery store (or they loot and burn down the only one they have ). They get their groceries from dollar stores and such.

Been reading that for years

I'm telling you that that the upper class doesn't eat that well either. The healthy that are eating as the report believes are likely also exercising. Most folks in my sphere with the exception of about half the females, eat lots of hamburgers, cheeseburgers, tenderloins, fries, fried chicken etc. they are not eating kale salad. And if they did they would put 300 cal of dressing on it. They may eat in nicer places but they still eat crap...

 

[T.Lex]

Interesting genetic look at the start of the spreading here in the US.
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Genetic-data-show-how-a-single-superspreading-15512903.php

 

[terrehautian]

Watching Hurricane Laura coverage on nbc or abc (Can't remember and they are the networks at work) they had people evacing via bus. I couldn't help but notice the person they interviewed had a cloth mask with an expiration valve. The story was talking about covid and emergency shelters. Wonder if all these people with masks with expiration valve realize that what the "experts" say the mask is for they are negating?

 

[actaeon277]

Watching Hurricane Laura coverage on nbc or abc (Can't remember and they are the networks at work) they had people evacing via bus. I couldn't help but notice the person they interviewed had a cloth mask with an expiration valve. The story was talking about covid and emergency shelters. Wonder if all these people with masks with expiration valve realize that what the "experts" say the mask is for they are negating?

people don't care.
They want something simple, and cheap.
And they want to show they "care", as long a caring isn't complicated or expensive.

 

[NKBJ]

A man telling his county board like he sees it.
Hooray for Carlos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPLd5iwQZqA

 

[nonobaddog]

Watching Hurricane Laura coverage on nbc or abc (Can't remember and they are the networks at work) they had people evacing via bus. I couldn't help but notice the person they interviewed had a cloth mask with an expiration valve. The story was talking about covid and emergency shelters. Wonder if all these people with masks with expiration valve realize that what the "experts" say the mask is for they are negating?

I had to go in to a large clinic recently to have some biopsies done and I wore a quality N100 respirator mask that happens to have an exhaust valve. I wore this mask to protect me. This was not a simple mask or a cheap mask. I know what it is for. When I went in all they did was give me a cheap disposable little ear-hook thing to put over my real mask to "protect" everybody else, thus making everybody happy. This is by far the riskiest place I have been since this whole chinese virus thing started.

I have to go back soon for the surgeries and I will do the same thing. It is my responsibility to protect me so I do it the way I wish. The little mask over my exhaust valve is their policy and that is fine - it is their clinic. It is extremely unlikely that I am infected but I can't be 100% positive so wearing their little mask in a clinical setting to protect others is fine with me.

I even see people wearing masks at the gas pumps when I'm filling my truck. I won't wear a mask of any kind to do that - at least not until they arrest me a few times.