Coronovirus IV

[Ingomike]

So how would you measure the impact?

You don't want to measure it by looking at the increase in deaths.
You don't want to measure it by looking at hospital beds required.
You don't want to measure it by the number of positive tests (living or dead).



It seems like you just plain don't want to measure it and pretend it doesn't have big impact.

To the contrary, I would be fascinated by accurate data if it existed. There is no data that exists that has not been corrupted by financial incentives and politics.

 

[T.Lex]

In other numbers, the nationwide stats remain pretty favorable.

One area of interest - reportedMortality rate. (That's for you, Jetta.) It peaked at ~6% in mid-May. That was still pretty early and the medical consensus appeared to favor mechanical ventilators. From then, it stayed in the 5% range for ~42 days until June 26. From then, it was only in the 4% range for 16 days, which also generally coincided with testing-at-will. So, with greater testing, we also got more negatives in the mix to dilute the mortality rate.

From then, we've spent 42 days in the 3% range and still aren't done. The decrease has also slowed. My sense is that there's been less at-will testing recently.

Another interesting number is that we're almost at 100 days to "double" the deaths. And it keeps extending.

 

[T.Lex]

Wouldn't a "bad flu season" by definition be at least worse than the norm by a good measure and maybe the worst ever?

Only if we're going to redefine some words.

Your "just a bad flu season" formulation suggests it would still be within the bounds of "bad flu season" and certainly not the worst ever.

Since it is unprofitable and inefficient to have excess capacity, wouldn't it stand to reason that infrastructure issues would occur when the event is worse than norm or the worst?

Hospitals have the data for flu season. They generally know how many to expect, even in a "bad" year. This event appears to have exceeded those bounds, at least in some places in the last few months.

 

[Ingomike]

Only if we're going to redefine some words.

Your "just a bad flu season" formulation suggests it would still be within the bounds of "bad flu season" and certainly not the worst ever.


Hospitals have the data for flu season. They generally know how many to expect, even in a "bad" year. This event appears to have exceeded those bounds, at least in some places in the last few months.

Unless exponentially worse, the worst flu season is still just a "bad flu season" in my book.

I have read that the flu data is not that accurate and is created by some mathematical formula from data at some hospitals. What is not clear is that instead of rounding the results of the flu data, they present it as a specific number, like 48,698, as if that is the exact number of deaths.

 

[foszoe]

its like 1 to the 10th power worse than the flu season, that's exponential! I expect a concession speech

Unless exponentially worse, the worst flu season is still just a "bad flu season" in my book.

I have read that the flu data is not that accurate and is created by some mathematical formula from data at some hospitals. What is not clear is that instead of rounding the results of the flu data, they present it as a specific number, like 48,698, as if that is the exact number of deaths.

 

[JettaKnight]

To the contrary, I would be fascinated by accurate data if it existed. There is no data that exists that has not been corrupted by financial incentives and politics.

That's all data, everywhere.


It sure seems like you want data that confirms your bias.

 

[johny5]

This is crap of using morgue and hospital beds as a measure is just silly.

It is especially silly when on considers all the energy and focus that was lavished on ventilators. The screeching about them was absolutely deafening, and suddenly we are not hearing a peep.

What happened? We have an enormous excess of ventilators. So, it is no longer useful to the narrative. No problem, just start showing pictures of air conditioned tuck trailers.

Makes one wonder though - are these pictures relevant? I recall a story not so long ago where pictures were shown of children 'locked in cages by the evil orange man!'. Then someone looked at the metadata on the photos and discovered that it was from the Obama days. Oops.

 

[T.Lex]

It is especially silly when on considers all the energy and focus that was lavished on ventilators. The screeching about them was absolutely deafening, and suddenly we are not hearing a peep.

What happened? We have an enormous excess of ventilators. So, it is no longer useful to the narrative. No problem, just start showing pictures of air conditioned tuck trailers.

Actually, maybe the good doctor can express his perspective, but I think there was an evolution on what the proper treatment of COVID patients was. Prior to this, the idea was that if someone was having severe problems breathing (in layman's terms) then it was appropriate to put them on a vent. For this, it appears that the vents didn't necessarily help over the long term. Rather, other treatments were/are exhausted before someone with COVID goes on a vent. That's part of the reason we may be having more acute COVID patients, but using fewer vents.

Just my own speculation on that narrow part of your post.

 

[JettaKnight]

Industry in the capitalist world was able to quickly ramp up production of ventilators in the face of a new global pandemic, while supply lines were being disrupted.

The medical practice soon discovered that ventilators weren't always the right treatment, so we're left with a glut of them.




I really don't think that's a situation to complain about.

 

[Ingomike]

That's all data, everywhere.


It sure seems like you want data that confirms your bias.

What would it take beyond the hundreds of articles linked in these threads showing all the mistakes, miscounts, policies promoting over counting, and financial incentives to overcount make the numbers junk, unusable for anything beyond a political cudgel?

 

[Doug]

Industry in the capitalist world was able to quickly ramp up production of ventilators in the face of a new global pandemic, while supply lines were being disrupted.

The medical practice soon discovered that ventilators weren't always the right treatment, so we're left with a glut of them.




I really don't think that's a situation to complain about.

Agreed, but if one patient couldn't get a ventilator, whether a Covid patient or not, Nancy Pelosi would demand Trump be charged with murder.

 

[johny5]

Agreed, but if one patient couldn't get a ventilator, whether a Covid patient or not, Nancy Pelosi would demand Trump be charged with murder.

Exactly right!

 

[T.Lex]

Agreed, but if one patient couldn't get a ventilator, whether a Covid patient or not, Nancy Pelosi would demand Trump be charged with murder.

Ok, but that wouldn't even be the craziest thing she's said.

 

[Doug]

Ok, but that wouldn't even be the craziest thing she's said.

You mean like when she said she didn't hate Trump?

 

[foszoe]

It is especially silly when on considers all the energy and focus that was lavished on ventilators. The screeching about them was absolutely deafening, and suddenly we are not hearing a peep.

What happened? We have an enormous excess of ventilators. So, it is no longer useful to the narrative. No problem, just start showing pictures of air conditioned tuck trailers.

Makes one wonder though - are these pictures relevant? I recall a story not so long ago where pictures were shown of children 'locked in cages by the evil orange man!'. Then someone looked at the metadata on the photos and discovered that it was from the Obama days. Oops.

So Trump wasted our tax dollars on building more ventilators?

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Would have just been a bad flu season.

We are well on our way to 200,000 dead... and that's with lock downs, distancing, hand washing like never before, masks... please point me to the bad flu season that matches this.

And that's just counting the dead... as far as I know, flu does attack other organs. COVID attack via the ACE surface of the cells... the lungs have the highest concentration of ACE... second is the heart. They are now seeing heart damage in those who survive EVEN MILD CASES.

Never heard of people with the flu having strokes due to massive blood clotting. Yeah, even the young'uns that survive, but are impaired due to strokes.

This ain't the flu.

This is crap of using morgue and hospital beds as a measure is just silly. Like we build excess capacity in either just in case the Chinese unleash a nasty virus on us. We have just what we need for normal, excess capacity is expensive. So therefore it is largely irrelevant if capacity is exceeded, it is only indicative of the situation being above normal. The new normal is that the wuho flu is here and some will have bad reactions to it.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

We would not have noticed to the point of panic folks live with now.

If NY, and NJ were a country they would have the worst outcome for wuhu flu than any country in the world so I have read. They would have noticed the "bad flu season" but without their quarantine restrictions they would have adapted more efficiently. Part of the backup of bodies was families could not have funerals. I posted recently that the average length of stay in a nursing home at the end of life is 5 months.

Please re-post that link with the data... I cannot find it. Knowing people that work in long term care (LTC), I'm skeptical. Keep in mind that LTC includes hospice care (true end of life), continuous healthcare required (the old nursing home nomenclature), assisted living and independent living. Not to mention that an individual often transitions from one to the other with a fairly typical progression being independent living -> assisted living -> nursing home -> hospice.

These folks were dying, covid sped it up.

I believe if we had done nothing (and the media did not fan the flames) in Indy it would have gone down as a "bad flu season".

 

[SheepDog4Life]

In other numbers, the nationwide stats remain pretty favorable.

One area of interest - reportedMortality rate. (That's for you, Jetta.) It peaked at ~6% in mid-May. That was still pretty early and the medical consensus appeared to favor mechanical ventilators. From then, it stayed in the 5% range for ~42 days until June 26. From then, it was only in the 4% range for 16 days, which also generally coincided with testing-at-will. So, with greater testing, we also got more negatives in the mix to dilute the mortality rate.

From then, we've spent 42 days in the 3% range and still aren't done. The decrease has also slowed. My sense is that there's been less at-will testing recently.

Another interesting number is that we're almost at 100 days to "double" the deaths. And it keeps extending.

Part of the earlier high mortality rate was overwhelmed facilities in places like NYC and NJ. Another part of it was murderous diktats to send elderly COVID patients to long term care facilities, again in NY state and NJ.

Part of the now lower mortality rate is the prevalence of younger patients (40% <30 years old). IMO, another part is that while we don't have a lot of tools in treating it, we have some. I do think there is a lot of observational stuff going on with HCQ for early onset. There is also a lot of work with steroids to reduce inflammation of those hospitalized with severe cases, which antibiotics work, dosages, etc. Also, some who would have earlier been put on ventilators are now being put on CPACs and other less severe positive pressure devices.

So in the whole "everyone will get it sooner or later" scenario, later is better.

 

[T.Lex]

So in the whole "everyone will get it sooner or later" scenario, later is better.

Same-y same.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Same-y same.

I'll take "Later" for $1000 please, Alex.