Coronavirus II

[Ziggidy]

If you remember, that was the report that says there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They've adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment.

The problem is she does not understand why the data went from 500,000 deaths to 20,000. The model did not change. The RO did to adjust for people staying at home,and socially isolating.Then they go on to try and make claims about where the cases went.

Cases she does not understand did not change,the reality of the RO did.She is trying to explain what happened to cases in the model as if they disappeared,while at the same time not looking at WHY the numbers changed. The RO reduction.Personally I think they may be over estimating the stay at home orders impact on RO,I think they lowered the RO number by to much.
She goes on to say the model does not reflect reality on the ground...when it actually is doing a good job at that by taking into account measures taken to lower the RO. You can not dismiss a 20% infection rate(the low estimate with the new RO) because 20% of the population do not have covid-19 today,which is what she does.


Looking at it even more you can start to understand how she is perceiving the model.Statements like "
In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who a-asymptomatic, who never presented for any test to have the kind of numbers predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of a-symptomatics. " She clearly is stating looking at the data she thinks you have to have a large number of a-symtomatics to get to the original 500,000 figure.It is simply not true.You need a higher RO than the current model is using with people staying at home.

She does not understand how the model works. That is very clear to me.

I do my absolute best to not have a side. I look at what is presented by the science.

Trying to make this about sides is something I have criticized more than once. It is not left or right. Trying to make this about sides is not helping in any way,and I have pointed that out.

Putting yourself pretty high up on that pedestal?


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[OurDee]

[h=1]Track where cell phones on Florida beaches during Spring Break traveled as state lockdowns went into effect due to Coronavirus[/h]
https://9gag.com/gag/an5PDgb

 

[smokingman]

WTF? C'mon. Seriously? You guys are going to use that for...what?

It is in common use. Your Taco Bell and most restaurants without a high temperature dish washing machine use as the final rinse for dishes.
Camp Maumee in Indiana(boy scouts) was using it as part of the 3 sink method when I went there back in the 80s.
The US military uses it for the same purpose final rinse of dishes AND cleaning tables in mess halls.

It is not something to use without understanding one tablet is good to make a gallon of cleaner. It is not something you want a child to get.

It does what it was intended to do very well.

 

[smokingman]

Putting yourself pretty high up on that pedestal?


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**** you.

Done here.

You want information other than what you are fed. Find it yourself.

I am sick of this ****. Just because I understood the method they used,and pointed out the flaws they admitted in the study does not mean I was on a pedestal.

How much bull**** does someone trying to provide information have to put up with.

I will not longer be posting on INGO.

 

[jamil]

There’s this feature built into web browsers that is really handy for posts you don’t like. It’s called the scroll bar. You just move the arrow with your mouse, and it magically moves all that harmful information right out of sight. It’s like it never existed. And even better, those clever engineers figured out how to connect that scroll bar on your browser to the wheel on your mouse, or to the trackpad. So you can easily scroll past what you don’t want to see.

 

[ditcherman]

I want to make sure I am calculating this correctly. I want to first say I know there are cases that have not confirmed and are not put into this calculation. The number of cases doubles approximately every 6 days and it takes approximately 24 to 30 days for the virus to run its course from the date of infection (death vs. recovery). If there are currently 104,463 confirmed cases and 1,702 deaths, we cannot use the 104,463 number to calculate the case fatality rate because most of those numbers come from cases that have not run its course.

Then using the 6 day doubling rate, 6 days ago there was 52,232 cases. 12 days ago, there were 26,116 cases, 18 days ago there was 13,058 cases, and 24 days ago there was 6,529 cases. The deaths, 1,702 actually come from the people infected 24+ days ago, the 6,529 confirmed cases. Using that number, it would be a 26.1% death rate of the confirmed cases. Would this be a correct analysis? Again, this is only of the confirmed cases, we do not know how many unconfirmed cases there are that would be in this pool and that would drop the death rate by whatever that number is.

Using qwerty's google sheet pubhtml it looks like to me the cases double every 2.5 to 3 days. I also don't believe that it takes 24 days to get to death/recovery, I believe it is more like 14 days, and hoosierdoc posted upthread that he believes getting to symptomatic is more like 5 to 7.

Not sure how this effects your final outcome concerning death rate, but I remember a calendar page we had that stated something like "you don't even want to try to use correct logic, because the likelihood of being wrong at least once is so high. Use incorrect logic and as long as you're wrong more than once you have a chance at being right".

You're close.

 

[nonobaddog]

**** you.

Done here.

You want information other than what you are fed. Find it yourself.

I am sick of this ****. Just because I understood the method they used,and pointed out the flaws they admitted in the study does not mean I was on a pedestal.

How much bull**** does someone trying to provide information have to put up with.

I will not longer be posting on INGO.

No Dammit! Your information is a big addition to all of our cumulative knowledge about this pandemic. Please don't go because of a couple disagreeing people.

People disagree with me all the time - I just consider them to be underinformed - they have that right no matter how wrong they are.

 

[nonobaddog]

Minnesota just started a two week stay-at-home period yesterday. I went to fill up my truck with gas before it started and there were quite a few people out and about. I hope they take it seriously, I am going to. We only have 4 deaths and 34 in the hospital with COVID-19 statewide as reported yesterday so we haven't felt any heavy blows yet. This might make people complacent and setup for a bigger fall.

 

[ditcherman]

Putting yourself pretty high up on that pedestal?


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I thought we had kind of worked through this. Water off a ducks back and so on. Why are you so offended by him? Because he doesn't post what you want to hear? Thats what it seems to me. IF that's the case that's a sign of a small intellect. Not calling names, I said if. If you can't agree just move on, read over it, at the most extreme ignore (but what would this thread be if people ignored those they don't agree with? What would life be? Preacher, meet choir.)

We are all reading things from our own point of view, our own bias.

There are so many different ways to read things. Sometimes I think this is worse than any virus. People really do read what they want into stuff. Personally I thought the way this lady phrased stuff it was obvious her first priority was to keep people from panicking, to keep the herd contained, not to speak the truth.

Whether smokingman stays gone or not, I'm thankful for his time here.

 

[qwerty]

I created a new sheet that is low-balling the asymptomatic and mild cases which have been from 70-85% of cases. I figured using the lower end will account for those that received testing that probably had an "in" like politicians, sports player, etc. My gut says that number would be higher just by looking at some granular data on a county by county area but 70% is what I chose.

I posted it before, but a good resource on testing is https://covidtracking.com/data/ They are just compiling state data, but is interesting to see how many people that meet the testing criteria are not positive.

 

[KG1]

I thought we had kind of worked through this. Water off a ducks back and so on. Why are you so offended by him? Because he doesn't post what you want to hear? Thats what it seems to me. IF that's the case that's a sign of a small intellect. Not calling names, I said if. If you can't agree just move on, read over it, at the most extreme ignore (but what would this thread be if people ignored those they don't agree with? What would life be? Preacher, meet choir.)

We are all reading things from our own point of view, our own bias.

There are so many different ways to read things. Sometimes I think this is worse than any virus. People really do read what they want into stuff. Personally I thought the way this lady phrased stuff it was obvious her first priority was to keep people from panicking, to keep the herd contained, not to speak the truth.

Whether smokingman stays gone or not, I'm thankful for his time here.

On the flip side of that if everything was framed in a WCS constantly then it would tend to induce mass panic and mess with everyone’s abilities to cope.

There has to be some sort of balance.

 

[jamil]

I still think it’s an inability to operate the scroll bar. People post stuff. You can glance over it. If you find it interesting you can read further. If not, scroll on. But no. Can’t possibly do that. Can’t not read it. Can’t not concoct some sinister motive for all the posts I don’t like.

 

[Tryin']

And just like that, a ton of potential information was lost.

Whether you thought it good, bad, or irrelevant, smokingman put more into collecting, disseminating, and discussing information about this pandemic than anyone on the board. Information that helped me make decisions that put my family and others ahead of the curve for this event.

For me, I say thank you sir, enjoy your time in Minnesota. May we all come out of this more prepared, more able, and more willing to cooperatively work together in times of trial.

 

[Doug]

Gee, it seems staying home is making some people short tempered.

Expected response: "I am NOT short tempered and you quit saying that."

It is sad that some feel they have to attack everyone who doesn't agree with them and some feel they have to react every time they feel disrespected.

Please, take a chill pill and/or adopt an adult perspective.

 

[Vigilant]

Gee, it seems staying home is making some people short tempered.

Expected response: "I am NOT short tempered and you quit saying that."

It is sad that some feel they have to attack everyone who doesn't agree with them and some feel they have to react every time they feel disrespected.

Please, take a chill pill and/or adopt an adult perspective.

This IS the interwebz you know?

 

[jedi]

Reinfection even deadlier per chinese doctor at ground zero

https://nypost.com/2020/02/19/whistleblower-doctors-say-coronavirus-reinfection-even-deadlier/

 

[ditcherman]

On the flip side of that if everything was framed in a WCS constantly then it would tend to induce mass panic and mess with everyone’s abilities to cope.

There has to be some sort of balance.

I believe that the truth is that balance.

Quotes from Dr CT Bergstrom, that smokingman posted here...
Because I've spent this pandemic at the interface of the research and scientific communication domains, I haven't been able to do that. And it's exhausting. It's demoralizing. I feel genuine sorrow over the way our society has become so polarized.

What is so terrible about the politicization of this pandemic is this: what people believe impacts how they behave, and it impacts the ability of our governments to muster the political will to enact the measures we need to slow and ultimately stop the spread of the virus.

We may not act like we're all in this together, but in a pandemic, like it or not, we are .

It's worth reading the Dr's entire quote IMO as he laments trying to get to the truth. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom

If peoples abilities to cope are messed with, well that's just too bad. I mean, I think we've kinda crossed that bridge already in a lot of ways.

I'm certainly not advocating the WCS be all that we see. And it's not, most of the general public aren't seeing much of that at all. WCS is not the truth, we're speculating here in large part. People need to understand that. Speculation hasn't happened yet, but we do owe it to ourselves to consider all reasonable alternatives. Did the banks close, as was speculated? No, and no harm really came from it because it was speculated. It was generally ignored, partly because of logic and partly because of normalcy bias. There are other examples of this, but where would we (individuals on here) be without that push to see the extreme? We wouldn't take this as seriously as we are, no matter where you are on that scale. This is just coming from a guy who has tried to keep his mouth mostly shut (fail!) but been watching many change their minds on this, in a large part because of the push to consider the extreme side.

I also just want to add that some of smokingmans posts are hard to read because of the back and forth between what he is quoting from twitter or an article and what he is actually saying. Don't know if this has led to some's confusion or not.

 

[Super Bee]

I still think it’s an inability to operate the scroll bar. People post stuff. You can glance over it. If you find it interesting you can read further. If not, scroll on. But no. Can’t possibly do that. Can’t not read it. Can’t not concoct some sinister motive for all the posts I don’t like.

Not trying to start a fight, just asking a simple question. What is the difference between some calling him out on certain statements he has made and you calling out Kut on one of his many post? You two have been going around and around for years, you could simply take your own advice and skip right by his post but there are times where you feel the need to call him out.

I do not post much around here, I keep to myself and read mostly. However, when I do read what I consider to be outlandish statements I may feel compelled to say something. I really do not see anything wrong with that as long as it it done in a civil way. So far I have not seen one person just unload on this member. To be honest, he was the one who, on his way out the door felt the need to swear and curse at anyone who had disagreed with him.

 

[nonobaddog]

I would rather be well informed than not - especially if some piece of that information could save my life.
So I value the contributions made by smokingman and I want him back.

If you read this, please consider it.

 

[JettaKnight]

Not trying to start a fight, just asking a simple question. What is the difference between some calling him out on certain statements he has made and you calling out Kut on one of his many post? You two have been going around and around for years, you could simply take your own advice and skip right by his post but there are times where you feel the need to call him out.

I do not post much around here, I keep to myself and read mostly. However, when I do read what I consider to be outlandish statements I may feel compelled to say something.

You kind of expect a lot of jabbing in the political threads, and Kut certainly doesn't have thin skin...


But here's a case a guy just posting good information and has been repeatedly pooped on by another member who hasn't come even close to level of "quality post" that smokingman has.