I want to make sure I am calculating this correctly. I want to first say I know there are cases that have not confirmed and are not put into this calculation. The number of cases doubles approximately every 6 days and it takes approximately 24 to 30 days for the virus to run its course from the date of infection (death vs. recovery). If there are currently 104,463 confirmed cases and 1,702 deaths, we cannot use the 104,463 number to calculate the case fatality rate because most of those numbers come from cases that have not run its course.
Then using the 6 day doubling rate, 6 days ago there was 52,232 cases. 12 days ago, there were 26,116 cases, 18 days ago there was 13,058 cases, and 24 days ago there was 6,529 cases. The deaths, 1,702 actually come from the people infected 24+ days ago, the 6,529 confirmed cases. Using that number, it would be a 26.1% death rate of the confirmed cases. Would this be a correct analysis? Again, this is only of the confirmed cases, we do not know how many unconfirmed cases there are that would be in this pool and that would drop the death rate by whatever that number is.
Then using the 6 day doubling rate, 6 days ago there was 52,232 cases. 12 days ago, there were 26,116 cases, 18 days ago there was 13,058 cases, and 24 days ago there was 6,529 cases. The deaths, 1,702 actually come from the people infected 24+ days ago, the 6,529 confirmed cases. Using that number, it would be a 26.1% death rate of the confirmed cases. Would this be a correct analysis? Again, this is only of the confirmed cases, we do not know how many unconfirmed cases there are that would be in this pool and that would drop the death rate by whatever that number is.