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Coronavirus II
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No bunks in camp 3(social distancing),but we have lots of room for tents.
Please remember to fully extinguish all fires.
Did anybody watch the live papal blessing from the Vatican yesterday? It was surreal to think about how much of the world probably came to a standstill during that hour. It was pretty heavy, but I really needed it. I think a lot of us did.
New COVID-19 Forecasts: US Hospitals Could Be Overwhelmed in the Second Week of April by Demand for ICU Beds, and US Deaths Could Total 81,000 by July | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Indiana specifically.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
No model is perfect,but this information was requested. It uses the best available data.
How the model was created.
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/def...rticles/2020/COVID-forecasting-03252020_4.pdf
I am going to say one thing about it from my perspective.
I do not agree with all methods used in the model(Gaussian error function),it is why it shows flat after the decline in peak.
That said it is probably a useful tool for the next month,as long as stay at home orders stay in place.
Some limits they mention.
Our models explicitly take into account variation in age-structure, which is a key driver of all-age mortality. But these efforts at quantification do not take into account many other factors that may influence the epidemic trajectory: the prevalence of chronic lung disease, the prevalence of multi-morbidity, population density, use of public transport, and other factors that may influence the immune response.
We also have not explicitly incorporated the effect of reduced quality of care due to stressed and overloaded health systems beyond what is captured in the data. For example, the higher mortality rate in Italy is likely in part due to policies around restricting invasive ventilation in the elderly. The model ensemble used does suggest that locations with faster increases in the death rate are likely to have more peak case load and cumulative deaths, but our uncertainty intervals are appropriately large
On an unrelated note.
18 USC §604 makes it a federal crime to knowingly take political contributions from someone receiving relief benefits made possible by an act of congress.
....laws will change in 3....2..
https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/USCODE-2017-title18/USCODE-2017-title18-partI-chap29-sec604
[h=1]Some people will die, that's life': Bolsonaro questions Covid-19 crisis, says deaths in Brazil hyped by the media.[/h][FONT="]Rio de Janeiro Governor Wilson Witzel, another former ally of Bolsonaro, said in the video conference that he won't heed the President's call to loosen social distancing protocols.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Last week, the Governor announced he would shut down airports and interstate roads, which Bolsonaro annulled by decree contending that only the federal Government can adopt such measures. By the time the President took to the airwaves yesterday, a Supreme Court justice had ruled in favour of Witzel and the governors.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Two days earlier Brazil's top court issued another ruling allowing Sao Paulo state to stop repaying federal Government debt amounting to US$400 million so that it can beef up its health sector. The decision may set a precedent for other states.[/FONT]
[FONT="]As of today, Brazil had about 2400 confirmed coronavirus cases and 57 deaths related to the outbreak.
He told reporters in the capital, Brasilia, that he has listened to his US counterpart, Donald Trump, and found their perspectives to be rather similar.
Brazil is seeing something unique, an insurrection of governors
This will become a new topic in political science: checks and balances by governors in a Federal System
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12320088
[/FONT]
Indiana specifically.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
No model is perfect,but this information was requested. It uses the best available data.
How the model was created.
http://www.healthdata.org/sites/def...rticles/2020/COVID-forecasting-03252020_4.pdf
I am going to say one thing about it from my perspective.
I do not agree with all methods used in the model(Gaussian error function),it is why it shows flat after the decline in peak.
That said it is probably a useful tool for the next month,as long as stay at home orders stay in place.
Some limits they mention.
Our models explicitly take into account variation in age-structure, which is a key driver of all-age mortality. But these efforts at quantification do not take into account many other factors that may influence the epidemic trajectory: the prevalence of chronic lung disease, the prevalence of multi-morbidity, population density, use of public transport, and other factors that may influence the immune response.
We also have not explicitly incorporated the effect of reduced quality of care due to stressed and overloaded health systems beyond what is captured in the data. For example, the higher mortality rate in Italy is likely in part due to policies around restricting invasive ventilation in the elderly. The model ensemble used does suggest that locations with faster increases in the death rate are likely to have more peak case load and cumulative deaths, but our uncertainty intervals are appropriately large
On an unrelated note.
18 USC §604 makes it a federal crime to knowingly take political contributions from someone receiving relief benefits made possible by an act of congress.
....laws will change in 3....2..
https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/USCODE-2017-title18/USCODE-2017-title18-partI-chap29-sec604
[h=1]Some people will die, that's life': Bolsonaro questions Covid-19 crisis, says deaths in Brazil hyped by the media.[/h][FONT="]Rio de Janeiro Governor Wilson Witzel, another former ally of Bolsonaro, said in the video conference that he won't heed the President's call to loosen social distancing protocols.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Last week, the Governor announced he would shut down airports and interstate roads, which Bolsonaro annulled by decree contending that only the federal Government can adopt such measures. By the time the President took to the airwaves yesterday, a Supreme Court justice had ruled in favour of Witzel and the governors.[/FONT]
[FONT="]Two days earlier Brazil's top court issued another ruling allowing Sao Paulo state to stop repaying federal Government debt amounting to US$400 million so that it can beef up its health sector. The decision may set a precedent for other states.[/FONT]
[FONT="]As of today, Brazil had about 2400 confirmed coronavirus cases and 57 deaths related to the outbreak.
He told reporters in the capital, Brasilia, that he has listened to his US counterpart, Donald Trump, and found their perspectives to be rather similar.
Brazil is seeing something unique, an insurrection of governors
This will become a new topic in political science: checks and balances by governors in a Federal System
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12320088
[/FONT]
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I commented on this up thread, so at the risk of repeating myself: The UAW had practically walked out when GM announced they were ceasing operations. Say what you want about unions (and as far as I’m concerned, they deserve all the criticism they get) but there’s a lot of good people who are members. I wouldn’t be surprised it might have taken a bit of nudging to get those that were willing to come in and work and help out the necessary permissions and union (and GM) red tape cut to allow them to do so.
Yes, I would say this photo proves she does indeed have it.
I hope that warmer weather does help. I don't think it'll knock it out. But maybe it'll help. South Pacific doesn't seem to be hit as hard. Singapore is very warm and humid, and they seem to have a pretty flat curve. Australia is ramping up though, so I dunno.
SheepDog4Life
Natural Gray Man
Checking back in on this thread and glad I did... thanks Vigilant/Route.
This looks perfect for frequent wipe down of kitchen and bathroom surfaces and hard floor surfaces. Added a pill chopper to my Amazon order to be able to half/quarter the tabs as appropriate, hopefully they'll chop decently.
Plan on still using bleach spray (1/2 cup per gallon) for disinfecting incoming items in the garage... but was looking for an inside the house solution if/when our commercial products run low.
Mucho gracias!
Sheepdog, if the pill chopper does not work, a single edged razor blade works fine (or a double edged blade with duct tape over one edge, or a utility knife blade without the knife).
Singapore has a non weather related advantage.
They wear masks. It is actually considered rude and disrespectful to not wear one when in public.
Every infectious disease expert in the country pushed for every single citizen to wear them.
It works.
In the (CZECH REPUBLIC masks where unheard of before covid-19. In 3 days they went from no one wearing a mask to 100% wearing them in public(the original large boost in supplies came from China when planes landed bringing millions of respirators and masks).
It is now against the law to not wear one when in public. Fairly certain they will not have the huge spike in cases where masks are not worn.
They started making so many masks so quickly they are provide huge numbers of them to European countries(it took them only three weeks to be making almost 40 million masks a day).
Japan has a well known history of wearing masks in public,and over half of the spike in new cases they had today(their time)where imported.
This official disinformation about masks being somehow bad for average people,but required for medical people (in the US and UK mainly)hits a nerve.
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PLEASE read up on the useage of this product as posted by nonobaddogg: https://www.drugs.com/vet/steramine.html
This is going to require some special handling.
Requires surfaces remain wet for 10m.
Not to be used without gloves/eye-pro.
Not to be used where it can contaminate food.
This is some nasty ****, that can be used responsibly.
As with other dangerous ****, read up on how to stay alive!
No. Glad you found comfort in it.
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