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Coronavirus II
- Thread starter churchmouse
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And we aren't playing Bergamo in the soccer finals. If we are, I'm not going.
We should pass China before the end of the night.
Of course their numbers are garbage and lies.
US,we just have the CDC telling California,NY,and Washington to stop testing(along with I am sure most states in the USA).
Never mind it took less than 5 minutes as states are reporting. We are number one in covid-19 cases.
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
Ut oh, Spaghettios!
You guys remember me commenting a few days ago that my Doc's office made me go through a fair amount of work to reschedule an appointment that was supposed to be for tomorrow out to May 1st?
Well, they just called to cancel that appointment and reschedule an in-person visit out to JULY!
Apparently I can also just have a phone consultation instead, which is what I intend to do. They said they'd also keep refilling my meds without trouble, which is the only thing I'm actually concerned about.
So.... This is fun! No routine medical care for the next 4 months.
You guys remember me commenting a few days ago that my Doc's office made me go through a fair amount of work to reschedule an appointment that was supposed to be for tomorrow out to May 1st?
Well, they just called to cancel that appointment and reschedule an in-person visit out to JULY!
Apparently I can also just have a phone consultation instead, which is what I intend to do. They said they'd also keep refilling my meds without trouble, which is the only thing I'm actually concerned about.
So.... This is fun! No routine medical care for the next 4 months.
My model ignores them.
Well, we can back into that number by using the total identified infections and taking 80% of that.
For me, this is an exercise in granular, day-to-day forecasting. Professional meteorologists look at highs and lows and high altitude currents to project 3-4 days.
I'm the guy in his back yard looking at the horizon to try and tell what the weather will be for the next hour.
Seriously, my assumptions are that the increase in reported dead people in the relatively recent past can indicate in the relatively near future how many dead people there will be.
(It was also a bit in response to people saying, "This can't be that bad." so as to illustrate exponential growth.)
Really, I only look at the dead people stat, then somewhat cross-check that against the total number of infections. That's part of the reason I think deaths are under-reported.
So, now really thinking outside the box.... what is the difference in what you are modeling with what is being reported? If you then push the time earlier, what date would make it flatten out? Hope that makes sense...but I am in the group that this has been out and about the US population more that what is normally being assumed.
Not the finals. Those were just the round of 16. The finals would've had people from all over the world (but mostly Liverpool and Paris, since they'd be playing).
[Ok, technically it would've depended on the draws after the group play.]
Oh, I totally believe that this has been spreading since January or so.
For me, I basically start with 3/13 for the numbers. Early on, the numbers jump so much because the values are so small.
What people are reporting on are sophisticate models that use weighted averages and parameters based on other countries and things like "days since 100th death" and all sorts of things that I don't have the time to figure out.
If an authority figure was in a room and asked, "How many dead people are there going to be tomorrow, the day after, and the day after that?" Well, my approach would probably be close.
For policy purposes, if that authority asked, "How many dead will there be a week from now?" I'm not the guy to answer that. (I'm not sure that guy is out there.)
I think chipbennett made the point that we don't really know how far along the graph we are. At some point, there's a peak. If you start out very close to the peak, then it comes quickly and looks like it flattens out quickly. If you start out further down from the peak, it looks like it is a long time coming.
We don't know where we are on that upslope. IHME thinks we're about 3 weeks away.
Might be right. Might not. I'll only be able to observe that once we hit it. That is, when all of my model's predictions are too high (and the daily increase is lower than the day before), then we'll know we're flattening the curve.
Once we are safely past the peak I can tell when it was.
Until the second wave comes from prematurely ending precautions.
Until the second wave comes from prematurely ending precautions.
President to speak soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4o7nryuJao
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4o7nryuJao
I usually just do the Vulcan wave thing. I aint shaking anyone's hand. I'm not sure I can get back to not caring about germs. I think about what I touch: gas nozzle. products in the store. cart. Even things at home. I think of all the ways the thing I'm touching might have been infected. And it makes me want to wash my hands.
Yes, I even worry about getting the mail.
Spain, Europe's worst-hit country after Italy, says coronavirus tests it bought from China are failing to detect positive cases
https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...id-tests-sent-from-china-missing-cases-2020-3
https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...id-tests-sent-from-china-missing-cases-2020-3
I thought I read somewhere that china even said their test does not catch all positives.
It's my understanding that the R0 is an estimate based on the factors that contribute to spreading it, like how long it's contagious overall, how long it's contagious before symptoms appear, how one moves about in society infecting people. So I would expect R0 to become more accurate as researchers learn more about those factors.
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