Coronavirus II

[smokingman]

smokingman needs to sell merch.

I put that on a t-shirt,but the factory making them in India needs cloth from China. They should arrive in the USA around 2023 as long as the pandemic is over...but I think they are just guessing on a time frame now.

 

[maxwelhse]

Pres is on...

 

[nonobaddog]

It's my understanding that the R0 is an estimate based on the factors that contribute to spreading it, like how long it's contagious overall, how long it's contagious before symptoms appear, how one moves about in society infecting people. So I would expect R0 to become more accurate as researchers learn more about those factors.

Well, it starts out as a complete unknown so the first approximation has to be some function of the number of infected out of the potential population with lots of refining parameters like you mentioned added in as discovered.

 

[jamil]

My model ignores them.

Well, we can back into that number by using the total identified infections and taking 80% of that.

For me, this is an exercise in granular, day-to-day forecasting. Professional meteorologists look at highs and lows and high altitude currents to project 3-4 days.

I'm the guy in his back yard looking at the horizon to try and tell what the weather will be for the next hour.

Seriously, my assumptions are that the increase in reported dead people in the relatively recent past can indicate in the relatively near future how many dead people there will be.

(It was also a bit in response to people saying, "This can't be that bad." so as to illustrate exponential growth.)

Really, I only look at the dead people stat, then somewhat cross-check that against the total number of infections. That's part of the reason I think deaths are under-reported.

So you think the deaths are significantly under-reported? We know the denominator is under-reported, I would say by a much higher factor than the numerator. And about deaths, without an autopsy, it's probably not all that representative to say they died, and they had covid-19, therefore they died from covid-19. Maybe it hastened the process. But if you had terminal cancer, and a compromised immune system, and you had covid-19, and you died. Did you really die from covid-19? I think that's the way they're tallying it, and I'm not sure it's accurate.

 

[jamil]

I put that on a t-shirt,but the factory making them in India needs cloth from China. They should arrive in the USA around 2023 as long as the pandemic is over...but I think they are just guessing on a time frame now.

Well, at least the virus on the box the t-shirt comes in should be dead by then.

 

[smokingman]

Well, at least the virus on the box the t-shirt comes in should be dead by then.

I ordered 100k of them. Pre-order now for one can of food,or get 2 for a roll of tp.
If you do not take advantage of this pre-order offer prices may well follow the rate of inflation.

 

[Alpo]

I put that on a t-shirt,but the factory making them in India needs cloth from China. They should arrive in the USA around 2023 as long as the pandemic is over...but I think they are just guessing on a time frame now.

You owe me one then! X Large.

 

[maxwelhse]

Sounds like the stimulus bill has limitations on companies doing buy backs and somehow limiting executive bonuses. It will be entertaining to see how they figure out how to cheat that.

 

[Alpo]

Have the execs count off 1-2-1-2. Fire all the 2's. Give the 1's 1/12th of the 2's annual salary.

Problem solved.

 

[Route 45]

smokingman needs to sell merch.

I think the domain DeathClockCrier.com is available.

 

[maxwelhse]

Have the execs count off 1-2-1-2. Fire all the 2's. Give the 1's 1/12th of the 2's annual salary.

Problem solved.

I sense a 2400% rise in executive salaries shortly before implementing your plan.

I know we're joking, but that's exactly the type of crap I expect to happen to cheat the system.

 

[Alpo]

I sense a 2400% rise in executive salaries shortly before implementing your plan.

I know we're joking, but that's exactly the type of crap I expect to happen to cheat the system.

Nah. I figure they will reprice all the stock options at the market low and issue shares in lieu of a cash bonus.

 

[smokingman]

I think the domain DeathClockCrier.com is available.

I still hope I am wrong. That this is not nearly as lethal as I think by following the science.
I have read everything from a 33% ICU rate to a .07% ICU rate. It is not easy to sift through what is real and what is opinion.

My worst case is bad. My best case is bad. The reality is well bad.

Maybe we come up with an effective treatment and this becomes nothing. One can hope,but not survive on it.

 

[nonobaddog]

So you think the deaths are significantly under-reported? We know the denominator is under-reported, I would say by a much higher factor than the numerator. And about deaths, without an autopsy, it's probably not all that representative to say they died, and they had covid-19, therefore they died from covid-19. Maybe it hastened the process. But if you had terminal cancer, and a compromised immune system, and you had covid-19, and you died. Did you really die from covid-19? I think that's the way they're tallying it, and I'm not sure it's accurate.

This is an ongoing issue. People want a single disease to blame. The real cause could be something like 'respiratory failure' with potentially more than one major contributing factor like COVID-19, lung cancer and pneumonia.

 

[maxwelhse]

Nah. I figure they will reprice all the stock options at the market low and issue shares in lieu of a cash bonus.

Nothing a reverse split right before payment can't fix!

...and I'm not even a professional scumbag.

 

[maxwelhse]

Reporters asking Trump about restaurants going out of business... You know, the hard hitting questions you need to press a pres on during a pandemic.

I hate the media.

 

[nonobaddog]

It must be tough being in an ER right now. Say some people come in, one broken arm, one stab wound and two coughing with fevers. What do they do?

 

[chocktaw2]

This is an ongoing issue. People want a single disease to blame. The real cause could be something like 'respiratory failure' with potentially more than one major contributing factor like COVID-19, lung cancer and pneumonia.

As it has always been, "dead is dead". Nothing more, nothing less.

 

[maxwelhse]

It must be tough being in an ER right now. Say some people come in, one broken arm, one stab wound and two coughing with fevers. What do they do?

Well... Let's try a test run with socialized medicine. Everybody gets stabbed, arms broken, and death virused...

 

[Snapdragon]

It must be tough being in an ER right now. Say some people come in, one broken arm, one stab wound and two coughing with fevers. What do they do?

I have a friend who is an attending ER doc in PA. She said the other night a young-ish man came in at 2:30 am with shoulder pain that had been going on for 7 years because he was curious to see how many sick people there were in there. She was juggling this clown and two real patients who were in respiratory distress and probably had corona virus.