Coronavirus II

[jamil]

I'm only playing devil's advocate here, but when the majority of the 6% are already approaching life's exit, they're probably not boosting the economy much to begin with by way of consumer spending. Most old folks are lucky to get by at all.

That is not intended to be a pro/con "kill the old folks" thing... Just saying that if the death toll gets that high, it may not have the impact you think it would. Now if that 6% was concentrated at mid-lifers who are in the peak of their earning and spending years, yes, that would be a problem.

Who would they market the clapper to? Who will buy Depends? Who will buy "pocket catheters"? Who will buy up the large supply of white walking shoes with velcro straps?

 

[maxwelhse]

Who would they market the clapper to? Who will buy Depends? Who will buy "pocket catheters"? Who will buy up the large supply of white walking shoes with velcro straps?

I could actually use about 85% of those things right now...

 

[actaeon277]

He song was mildly funny. Not as offensive as I'd expected.
I love how you make a joke, and everyone starts talking about if I "were ever in any real danger, I'd cry like a baby".


Not pointing fingers here.
Just my white bread civilian office workers that think dangerous is running out of toner.

 

[actaeon277]

Would it have killed you to just run with the joke? A couple of days ago your boat had boobs! C'mon man!

A boat with boobs, is a joke.
You're gonna have to work harder at it.

 

[jamil]

I have a hard time believing that 6% would have impacted the economy as severely as shutting down all of our service industries. I do believe it would have an impact, but nothing to this level.

That's probably true.

Who is willing to rejoin society, get back to work, and just sweat this virus out? I imagine there are some people who would.

 

[chipbennett]

We know that the rates for some countries approximately track the rates that other countries are seeing. We don't know the numbers down to a fraction. But as far as mortality rates, and by age groups, and the R0 value, we have a range, where the lower limit is derived from the statistics, and the upper limit is a guess based on models. Because we aren't testing everyone, what we know from the statistics is that these numbers a minimum. And what that tells us is that this isn't the ***damn flu. Is it worth shutting the economy down over? I don't know. It's a discussion worth having. Maybe we're shutting down too much. Or maybe in 3 or 4 weeks we'll all be thinking we didn't shut down enough. I think NY right now doesn't think they shut down enough early enough.

It appears that you're reading the statistics exactly upside down. We are testing the most severely symptomatic, and the most at-risk. That means that the numbers are worst-case. Testing more people can only make the rates go down.

That means that, whatever the ranges for mortality and R0 are, we are looking at the upper, not the lower, limits.

 

[Alpo]

Who would they market the clapper to? Who will buy Depends? Who will buy "pocket catheters"? Who will buy up the large supply of white walking shoes with velcro straps?

The clapper? C'mon man. It's "hey google, turn out the lights".

 

[jamil]

Last I checked, the average age of the cruise market was in the range of 40-50 years old.

That doesn't mean it doesn't have a significant upper tail.

 

[maxwelhse]

He song was mildly funny. Not as offensive as I'd expected.
I love how you make a joke, and everyone starts talking about if I "were ever in any real danger, I'd cry like a baby".


Not pointing fingers here.
Just my white bread civilian office workers that think dangerous is running out of toner.

If you're gonna directly call me out like that, let me explain...

You listen to the whining 64 year old woman, who is the only person in the office that actually prints anything, whine non-stop for 3 days because we're out of toner. Especially if it happens to be for the printer she demanded be placed on her desk instead of walking all the way over there to the regular printer for everybody else.

I have the suicide hotline on speed dial when toner shortages arise.

 

[maxwelhse]

A boat with boobs, is a joke.
You're gonna have to work harder at it.

Fair enough!

 

[jamil]

The clapper? C'mon man. It's "hey google, turn out the lights".

No man. I just saw a clapper commercial over the weekend. I was like, WTF? But then I realized that my 80+ mother in law is definitely "clapper" speed. She has to ask for help changing the channel on her "smart" TV, for crying out loud. She could probably handle clapping.

 

[jamil]

2 months? Do we expect businesses that have had to shut their doors for two months will all start right back up like nothing happened? Some might, but not all. And 3.3M filing unemployment and counting... what % of the workforce is that, and how many will be back to work in 2 months? not all, I'm sure. Not to mention impact to people's retirement accounts, impacts on things like new home construction, tourism (spring break would have started this week for our kids), etc. Heck, my wife and I were talking about upgrading our camper and that spending is at least on hold for a while, meanwhile I hear right here on INGO the place we would have bought from may be closing. People that have savings to live off of will have to rebuild their nest egg. This is not a two month impact, even if the quarantines end and life goes back to normal 1 April.

-rvb

Hey. It's okay. The senate passed a $2T coronoavirus stimulus bill, That'll bail everyone out. We're saved.

 

[Alpo]

I cannot give my wife any controller that has buttons. She will not read instructions and she can't see very well (cataract surgery soon). She punches buttons at random and for quite awhile. There is no muscle memory with X(rand). "Hey Google" is a must.

I suppose she could clap her hands, but that is so 1990. And Roku doesn't clap. She does yell at the Roku controller while punching the wrong button. Funny if you are drinking...but I don't really drink much any more.

 

[jamil]

WOW!
So, how many dead loved ones thrown in a pile would make you guys happy?
Make the best of what you've been dealt.



Remember.... We are all in this together. Just separately.

In groups of no more than 10 and spaced at least 6 ft apart.

 

[jamil]

Interesting thing. A couple of years ago, I ranged my neighborhood. My wife thought I was nuts.

Not so much any more....

No ****?

 

[T.Lex]

New modeling from the University of Washington.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Still reviewing it, but looks pretty solid.

ETA:
Interestingly, their modeling actually under-forecast the deaths the last couple days.

 

[maxwelhse]

I cannot give my wife any controller that has buttons. She will not read instructions and she can't see very well (cataract surgery soon). She punches buttons at random and for quite awhile. There is no muscle memory with X(rand). "Hey Google" is a must.

I suppose she could clap her hands, but that is so 1990. And Roku doesn't clap. She does yell at the Roku controller while punching the wrong button. Funny if you are drinking...but I don't really drink much any more.

You're basically describing a British sitcom to me... You need to start a livestream.

 

[jamil]

I cannot give my wife any controller that has buttons. She will not read instructions and she can't see very well (cataract surgery soon). She punches buttons at random and for quite awhile. There is no muscle memory with X(rand). "Hey Google" is a must.

I suppose she could clap her hands, but that is so 1990. And Roku doesn't clap. She does yell at the Roku controller while punching the wrong button. Funny if you are drinking...but I don't really drink much any more.

My MIL gets really frustrated at Roku. She doesn't understand it at all. She wants a "clicker" with an up down arrow so she can flip through the channels. I told her those days are gone. Every time I think she's getting the hang of it she asks a question that convinces me she has no idea.

 

[smokingman]

New modeling from the University of Washington.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Still reviewing it, but looks pretty solid.

ETA:
Interestingly, their modeling actually under-forecast the deaths the last couple days.

What happens with their model on June 1st? When it shows no gain or loss for the next two months. No change up or down. I find that a bit odd.
I also find the model a bit insulting.

Saying we will need 215k hospital beds needed at the peak but we already have almost double the needed at 468k....what is wrong with that picture?


Maybe everyone trying to set up emergency hospitals already? Maybe New York city alone saying they need almost 100k new beds?California is saying it needs 50k.
They are setting up the stadiums here in Minnesota as hospitals,have already started doing. At least 6 states now have mobile hospitals going up.

Model assumes peak in 16 days. I would like to see that data,RO,and estimated numbers they are using to make that guess.The kicker of their model. It assumes nothing is ever shut down. Not schools,business or travel.

Going to add one more question. How or why do they assume the "peak" of deaths country wide will be April 14th at 2341 a day. I do not think that is anywhere near reality.
To say it is optimistic is an understatement!

 

[qwerty]

I knew someone would be along saying the model is not grim enough.