Coronavirus II

[smokingman]

I think at this point I'd be really happy if we could get out of F.U.D. mode (Fear/Uncertainty/Doubt). I think we all have a case of FUD right now and it makes fact-finding vitally important so that we make the right decisions for ourselves and families. I think of that couple who drank the fish tank cleaner. That was a case of FUD-caused death. I think about the families who have had to live in the same home for days or weeks after a family member has died because no one had the courage to suit up and take care of it. That's FUD too.

Facts defeat FUD. And maybe the facts are elusive and hard to find when everyone is FUD-stricken. Or maybe the facts we have don't point to the conclusion you wanted, but it's not what you want that make facts what they are. Facts don't care about the reality you want to exist. I guess I'm urging people to care way more about what's real than what you want to be real. Reality, especially now, is more important than sides or ideologies or political parties. What is real? What is really happening? Why is it happening this way? Really. Not the convenient answer which feeds your worldview. What are all the facts that construct the reality around you? Is that perceived reality real?

Well said. I would add just because you have never experienced something does not mean it is not part of reality.
Would rep you if I could.

 

[BugI02]

I think at this point I'd be really happy if we could get out of F.U.D. mode (Fear/Uncertainty/Doubt). I think we all have a case of FUD right now and it makes fact-finding vitally important so that we make the right decisions for ourselves and families. I think of that couple who drank the fish tank cleaner. That was a case of FUD-caused death. I think about the families who have had to live in the same home for days or weeks after a family member has died because no one had the courage to suit up and take care of it. That's FUD too.

Facts defeat FUD. And maybe the facts are elusive and hard to find when everyone is FUD-stricken. Or maybe the facts we have don't point to the conclusion you wanted, but it's not what you want that make facts what they are. Facts don't care about the reality you want to exist. I guess I'm urging people to care way more about what's real than what you want to be real. Reality, especially now, is more important than sides or ideologies or political parties. What is real? What is really happening? Why is it happening this way? Really. Not the convenient answer which feeds your worldview. What are all the facts that construct the reality around you? Is that perceived reality real?

I have ample evidence before me to conclude that the Democrats in positions of power will stop at nothing and stoop to anything to regain power. I have ample evidence that federal and state governments can wield far too much power under the guise of an 'emergency'. I have evidence that those same Democrats would like even more government power over all aspects of our lives. I have evidence that while he is not perfect, Trump is a far better choice to wield that power than any other choice on offer; and I have evidence that when we are past this crisis reining in the power of government should be high on my list of priorities

IMO working with the Dems is akin to working with the Russians in The Two. We can accomplish some common goals against a common enemy, but I don't see us ever becoming friends. There are still teams, there is just a temporary truce. People who are nostalgic for 'working across the aisle' but were appalled at Pelosi and Schumer trying to get things they could never marshall the votes for, they don't remember that that is what 'working across the aisle' looked like

 

[chipbennett]

What? I didn’t say Trump only gets his information from such sources. I saw the press conference live. He had a an expert right there saying that it’s premature to claim those meds were effective. And Trump was right there saying they were. So he had an expert on the same stage, yet Trump couldn’t defer to the expert. Sometimes the people you respect are full of ****. It’s good to be able to admit when they are. Trump was full if ****. Not on everything. But in that he was full of **** for overriding an expert in the field with his own irrational beliefs.

I'm pretty sure people just hear what they want to hear, based on their own confirmation biases.

All Trump said, in the press conference I saw (that led to this whole, ridiculous fiasco), was that the treatment had shown some evidence that was promising, that "it might work, it might not work" (he explicitly said this, multiple times), but that he, personally, was hopeful.

Nothing Fauci said refuted anything that Trump said. Fauci was giving FDA-speak, which is probably appropriate for him and his position. (I know FDA-speak. I live in FDA-speak.)

 

[chipbennett]

Agreed

All a president needs to do in this crisis is show some leadership, admit that it's a crisis and he can't even do that. He was comparing this to the flu just last week on Twitter. Pence is a much better example: praises and defers to other people. Trump's ineptness is going to cost thousands more lives because so many people were following his lead when he tried to make this to be no big deal. In the end, it will also hurt the economy more than if we had dealt with it head on.

The briefings should now be given by Fauci or some other scientist, the way Schwarzkopf gave briefings during the Gulf War.

Counter-point: Trump closed the border to China in January, and took other, immediate actions, that will very likely save lives.

The same people who are now criticizing his allegedly late response? They were the ones calling him a racist for closing the border in January, and making ludicrous claims that his actions could actually lead to spreading the virus further.

 

[Ingomike]

I believe the scientist was sayng they do not have the data to difinately say it is effective as a cure or treatment. Trump was speaking about the positive outcomes they were seeing and was hopeful that it was going to eventually be labeled as a treatment and such. The scientist is following protocol, the same protocol that puts the USA behind other countries when it comes to released pharmicuticals and treatments. Trump is being optimistic and showing it. The scientist is being data driven but if you listen closely, he will say it seems to be working BUT they need data, a lot more data before they can make any official determination.

I'll stick with Trump on this one. Until otherwise proven ineffective or dangerous, it's the best we have at the moment and it is working in many patients accross the globe. I would ask for it in a heartbeat for any person in my family.

An exellent response.

 

[BugI02]

Well... yeah, there is that. :/

One of my assumptions is that whatever is happening in the under-reporting places is happening at the same rate as everywhere else. The numbers scale.

[Yes. While a systematic error can affect the accuracy of any given datum, comparisons of the data over time are still a valid and accurate trend indicator]

(And, I love zerohedge.)

I'm skeptical at any comparison to Italy. Different society, different health care, different response. I mean, valuable as a worst case, but IMHO we've already diverged from their model, so the comparison has less value.

I expect to see transfers of patients from hotspots to nearby treatment facilities with capacity. There's a huge risk of then extending the hotspot, but it is what it is. USian health care providers are not going to want to sit by and watch this happen.

Oh, and yeah, if medical workers start getting hit with this in statistically relevant numbers, we're kinda toast. That becomes a doubly-compounding problem.

*.*

 

[Ingomike]

The day I saw that press conference, I had just read about a study that compared outcomes of patients with COVID-19.This was not a clinical study. It was a statistical study comparing the outcomes of patients who took the drug and people who didn't. The study concluded that there was no statistical difference in outcomes, but deeper clinical research is needed.

I think Dr Fauci was trying to help Trump recover from trying to state wild-ass unsubstantiated claims. He did that job fairly well, saying that Trump was "optimistic" about the drug, while he was saying, let's prove it's a safe and effective treatment before we go giving people false hope. I'll put my faith in what the research says. At this point, i don't know if it's effective or safe for treating this COVID-19. I'm not putting my faith in a politician who has consistently demonstrated an inability to admit anything might be wrong in his own estimation of himself. At this point I want the president to be a leader, but also be able to recognize and admit everything that's true, everything that's not true, and especially be able to admit when we just don't know.

I mean WTFH? Dr Fauci just finishes saying that it's too early to tell if Chloroquine is a game changer or not, then Trump drags his dick into the conversation to say it is. AS IF HE KNOWS MORE THAN THAN THE SCIENTIST! Man, I get it that you like Trump. I'm not a hater. But c'mon. This is obvious stuff here. I hate the reputation dammage Trump does to himself with **** like this. Let's not give people hope in something before there's a clear reason to have hope. It just further chips away at his reputation. It's an unforced error. Now, if it turns out the statistical study was correct, and that Chloroquine isn't a game changer, people take note. But worse, the press will have a field day with this. And I suppose if that happens, Trumpers will be claiming that the press is hiding it's success. Because. You know. Trump can't possibly ever be wrong about anything. Jeez. WTF?

Apparently NY doesn't agree with this, they are ordering a million of doses...

 

[ljk]

[video=youtube;v2B198yMIM4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2B198yMIM4[/video]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2B198yMIM4

 

[Ingomike]

3.28 million new unemployed. Does not include data from the past week.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/unemployment-claims-hit-3-million-last-week-n1169266

These numbers are just "the tip of the iceberg," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, noting that these figures do not even include data from this week.

Thanks Mr. Obvious, I'd have never made the connection...

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

I have ample evidence before me to conclude that the Democrats in positions of power will stop at nothing and stoop to anything to regain power. I have ample evidence that federal and state governments can wield far too much power under the guise of an 'emergency'. I have evidence that those same Democrats would like even more government power over all aspects of our lives. I have evidence that while he is not perfect, Trump is a far better choice to wield that power than any other choice on offer; and I have evidence that when we are past this crisis reining in the power of government should be high on my list of priorities

IMO working with the Dems is akin to working with the Russians in The Two. We can accomplish some common goals against a common enemy, but I don't see us ever becoming friends. There are still teams, there is just a temporary truce. People who are nostalgic for 'working across the aisle' but were appalled at Pelosi and Schumer trying to get things they could never marshall the votes for, they don't remember that that is what 'working across the aisle' looked like

Since Trump has started talking about restarting the economy, you can tell by the questions asked in those pressers, the lines are being drawn. Every single person that dies after he makes the eventual announcement will be all his fault and would not have happened had we only continued choking the economy to death. It's coming.

 

[Ingomike]

What does "I'll take 'hopeful'" even mean? I mean in a practical way. I mean. It sounds more positive than, let's wait and see if it is effective. So if it's just about messaging, well, okay. But then we're still waiting for 18 months to have the drug approved for this use. And I'm not opposed to fast-tracking it. It's not like there's a shortage of people to try the stuff on. If they're about ready to breath their last, what's it gonna hurt, right? But, it's a false hope to claim much beyond let's wait and see how hopeful it actually is before we call it hopeful. Especially with the studies that are now suggesting that it's not all that hopeful.

No we are not waiting 18 months. I believe we will soon let those sick volunteer to "test" these drugs. Why otherwise would NY order a million doses?

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

No we are not waiting 18 months. I believe we will soon let those sick volunteer to "test" these drugs. Why otherwise would NY order a million doses?

I'd volunteer.

 

[chipbennett]

No. I didn't. We do know some things. We know people die from this at a few times the rate of the flu. We know from published, peer reviewed studies, that it can cause your immune system to attack the lungs, which is a serious condition. We know approximately what the mortality rates are by age group. We know it has a R0 of way higher than the flu so it spreads much quicker.

Of the things you listed, the only one that we know is that it can cause your immune system to attack the lungs.

We don't know the mortality rate. We don't know mortality rate by age group. We don't know the R0 value. We don't know these things, because we don't have the data to know those things. We simply can't compare novel coronavirus to the flu, because we don't yet do enough testing to know how many people are being infected. Only once we know how many people are/were/have been infected, can we know any of those things, much less, compare them with the flu.

We know that it can be very serious for those whom it infects - and particularly so for certain demographics. We can and should act on that information.

Whether that information, alone, is sufficient to scuttle the world's most massive economy, or to willingly cede civil liberties to the government, is a legitimate question.

 

[Snapdragon]

Thanks Mr. Obvious, I'd have never made the connection...

Wow, that was harsh.

 

[nonobaddog]

He said approximately.

 

[HoughMade]

I found it odd that the FDA approved hydroxychloroquine for "off label" use.

It's not illegal for a physician to prescribe a medication for a condition it is not approved for. Happens all the time. Manufacturers are not allowed to advertise or promote a drug for a condition it is not approved for, but there is no law against doctors prescribing "off label", subject, of course, to the medical standard of care.

I don't quite know what approving a drug for "off label" use does. Maybe it gives health systems and docs cover who have policies against prescribing drugs for "off label" use? I don't know.

 

[nonobaddog]

We have some data that gives us approximate values for this virus. When we have more data we will have better numbers that are approximate. When we have more data after that we will have even better numbers that are still approximate. ad nauseam

 

[T.Lex]

Wow, that was harsh.

Welcome to INGO, you must be new here.

 

[T.Lex]

.... ad nauseam

If you're not feeling well, be sure to self-quarantine.

 

[JettaKnight]

3.28 million new unemployed. Does not include data from the past week.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/unemployment-claims-hit-3-million-last-week-n1169266

These numbers are just "the tip of the iceberg," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, noting that these figures do not even include data from this week.

The real question is, how many people get back to working in one month.