Coronavirus II

[smokingman]

Amazon warehouses are facing a growing tide of coronavirus cases with at least 11 facilities hit so far(was 8 yesterday).

That case marks the second to affect Amazon warehouses in New York. It comes a week after the first reported case at any US Amazon facility, in Queens, NY. The company also confirmed a case at a facility in Joliet, Ill. and at an Edison, NJ facility Wednesday. Other positive cases have been reported at Amazon facilities in Moreno Valley, Calif.; Jacksonville, Fla.; Shepherdsville, Ky.; Brownstown, Mich.; Oklahoma City, Okla.; Katy, Texas; and Wallingford, Conn.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/tech/amazon-workers-coronavirus/index.html

 

[jamil]

for all you in the mass hysteria bubble if these unemployment numbers don't jolt you out of it, nothing will.

Bubble? Who's in the bubble?

A bubble is idea isolation, as a result of selective information intake. Dude, I'm trying to take it all in to make as much sense of this as I can. I'm aware of the impact it has on the economy. This is going to be far worse than the 2008 housing bubble market crash.

If this is all a hoax, it's not the badness of the coming economic crisis that makes it a hoax. Your statement implies that the unemployment numbers is what makes this a hoax. Yes. People are self-isolating. Many businesses are shut down. Many people don't have an income. Those facts have no bearing on the truthfulness of what is happening with the virus. Those facts stand on their own without a causal link from the economy to the virus. The reciprocal is not true however. The virus is definitely impacting the economy. And maybe the reason why you want to think the virus is a hoax is because the economy is really hurting you or your loved ones. And if that's the case, I'm sorry about that. Everyone is impacted financially, or if they're not at the moment, they will be eventually.

A better question than "is this a hoax" (since the facts point it being real), is this: is the economic cost worth potentially saving the lives of people who would otherwise be lost due to this pandemic? If you want to discuss that question, I think it's reasonable. But, if the question remains, is this real, we probably can't have a productive conversation about it, because I think if you can't be moved by the stories close to home, you may be unwilling to entertain the possibility that it's not a hoax.

 

[T.Lex]

By the way, in terms of looking at the numbers, I realized that today may be "the day" this demonstrably starts to flatten. Technically, it might've been yesterday, but still - there could be a statistical glimmer of hope.

In an exponential growth model, there's downward pressure. That is, no (terrestrial) resource is infinite. Whatever is being measured is limited by its environment.

Yesterday, while we still probably hit a new record in deaths, the curve was flatter than the previous days'. The increases are becoming shallower.

That fits with the anecdotal logic that the people who are dying now were likely hospitalized before or early in the national work-from-home strategy (which I count as starting 3/13). We are still going to see increasing deaths, but they can't (I'm hoping) be on the order of exponential growth.

So, the numbers.

The daily increases have been running from 1.5x (of the prior day's total) to the average of about 1.4x (since 3/13). My best case 1.25x has been low most days.

But here's the deal, yesterday's deaths were in the range of about 250. At the average (1.4x) that would require about 400 deaths today. Today. That would blow the current "high" out of the water. The 1.25x would predict another day of about 250 deaths.

So, if we can expect the increase to be below the 1.4x average, then that suggests we are beating the curve. We are coming in below the average would mean that we are reducing the death rate. Flattening the curve.

Now, that's not exactly reason to celebrate - not until we are able to reduce the number of deaths.

I'm just saying that we might be getting this thing under (limited) control.

Of course, if deaths grow by 400, then I'm just an unfrozen caveman amateur statistician.

 

[smokingman]

By the way, in terms of looking at the numbers, I realized that today may be "the day" this demonstrably starts to flatten. Technically, it might've been yesterday, but still - there could be a statistical glimmer of hope.

In an exponential growth model, there's downward pressure. That is, no (terrestrial) resource is infinite. Whatever is being measured is limited by its environment.

Yesterday, while we still probably hit a new record in deaths, the curve was flatter than the previous days'. The increases are becoming shallower.

That fits with the anecdotal logic that the people who are dying now were likely hospitalized before or early in the national work-from-home strategy (which I count as starting 3/13). We are still going to see increasing deaths, but they can't (I'm hoping) be on the order of exponential growth.

So, the numbers.

The daily increases have been running from 1.5x (of the prior day) to the average of about 1.4x (since 3/13). My best case 1.25x has been low most days.

But here's the deal, yesterday's deaths were in the range of about 250. At the average (1.4x) that would require about 400 deaths today. Today. That would blow the current "high" out of the water. The 1.25x would predict another day of about 250 deaths.

So, if we can expect the increase to be below the 1.4x average, then that suggests we are beating the curve. We are coming in below the average would mean that we are reducing the death rate. Flattening the curve.

Now, that's not exactly reason to celebrate - not until we are able to reduce the number of deaths.

I'm just saying that we might be getting this thing under (limited) control.

Of course, if deaths grow by 400, then I'm just an unfrozen caveman amateur statistician.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...ration-new-cases-dashing-hopes-outbreaks-peak
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...hs-apocalyptic-surge-rocks-new-york-hospitals

Just a underestimating.
You have done well.
I also know you are using provided numbers,and we both know those are gross underestimates.

The USA still has 15 states or territories with zero reported deaths either. Does not seem very likely to me.

 

[jamil]

No one here is in a mass hysteria bubble.

For those in denial about this, I would only ask if you understand exponential growth.

A visual illustration. Let's say the number doubles every 3 days, which seems to be about the rate at which the number of covid-19 infections double. So each row represents 3 days.

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A word picture: For the purpose of illustration, if the number of infections double every 3 days, let's say today 100% of the population has been infected. How many days ago was only 1/4 the population infected?

Answer: only last week.


That's how exponential growth works.


[EDIT: Not sure why those spaces show up. They're not present while editing.]

 

[T.Lex]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...ration-new-cases-dashing-hopes-outbreaks-peak
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...hs-apocalyptic-surge-rocks-new-york-hospitals

Just a underestimating.
You have done well.
I also know you are using provided numbers,and we both know those are gross underestimates.

The USA still has 15 states or territories with zero reported deaths either. Does not seem very likely to me.

Well... yeah, there is that. :/

One of my assumptions is that whatever is happening in the under-reporting places is happening at the same rate as everywhere else. The numbers scale.

(And, I love zerohedge.)

I'm skeptical at any comparison to Italy. Different society, different health care, different response. I mean, valuable as a worst case, but IMHO we've already diverged from their model, so the comparison has less value.

I expect to see transfers of patients from hotspots to nearby treatment facilities with capacity. There's a huge risk of then extending the hotspot, but it is what it is. USian health care providers are not going to want to sit by and watch this happen.

Oh, and yeah, if medical workers start getting hit with this in statistically relevant numbers, we're kinda toast. That becomes a doubly-compounding problem.

 

[smokingman]

Well... yeah, there is that. :/

One of my assumptions is that whatever is happening in the under-reporting places is happening at the same rate as everywhere else. The numbers scale.

(And, I love zerohedge.)

I'm skeptical at any comparison to Italy. Different society, different health care, different response. I mean, valuable as a worst case, but IMHO we've already diverged from their model, so the comparison has less value.

I expect to see transfers of patients from hotspots to nearby treatment facilities with capacity. There's a huge risk of then extending the hotspot, but it is what it is. USian health care providers are not going to want to sit by and watch this happen.

Oh, and yeah, if medical workers start getting hit with this in statistically relevant numbers, we're kinda toast. That becomes a doubly-compounding problem.

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/boston-hospital-employees-positive-coronavirus/2097296/

Sorry. But medical workers are getting infected at a high rate.

Happening right now, @IndStatePolice
Troopers and @INDOT
employees are staging at Stout Field in Indianapolis preparing to assist our partners @INGuardsman
distribute medical supplies across the state

https://twitter.com/ISPIndianapolis/status/1243163965015961600

 

[T.Lex]

A visual illustration. Let's say the number doubles every 3 days, which seems to be about the rate at which the number of covid-19 infections double. So each row represents 3 days.

[EDIT: Not sure why those spaces show up. They're not present while editing.]

Try using the "code" tag?

Also, to refute my optimistic post earlier (leave me alone, its what I do), yesterday's total deaths will net out at about 1,030. Day before yesterday, we were at about 550. That's awfully close to doubling every 2 days. Call it 2.5. That's faster than the pretty regular 3 day doubling that had been happening.

 

[jamil]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...ration-new-cases-dashing-hopes-outbreaks-peak
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...hs-apocalyptic-surge-rocks-new-york-hospitals

Just a underestimating.
You have done well.
I also know you are using provided numbers,and we both know those are gross underestimates.

The USA still has 15 states or territories with zero reported deaths either. Does not seem very likely to me.

I can believe that there are states with no deaths from this yet. People are pretty isolated in some states. Small population centers. Not a lot of movement in or out of the state. Possibly the biggest vector into the state is package shipment.

 

[Ziggidy]

What does "I'll take 'hopeful'" even mean? I mean in a practical way. I mean. It sounds more positive than, let's wait and see if it is effective. So if it's just about messaging, well, okay. But then we're still waiting for 18 months to have the drug approved for this use. And I'm not opposed to fast-tracking it. It's not like there's a shortage of people to try the stuff on. If they're about ready to breath their last, what's it gonna hurt, right? But, it's a false hope to claim much beyond let's wait and see how hopeful it actually is before we call it hopeful. Especially with the studies that are now suggesting that it's not all that hopeful.

We'll just have to disagree on this. I am hopeful for many things. I hope I am right, I hope Trrump is right, I hope the scientist is able to gather the date he wants quickly. I like being hopeful and looking for every possible positive we can find in such a negative place we have evolved into.

Yes, I do find that there are false hopes out there. Magic potions, colloidal silver....yada yada yada. That is not the kind of hope I have.

 

[T.Lex]

https://www.nbcboston.com/news/coronavirus/boston-hospital-employees-positive-coronavirus/2097296/

Sorry. But medical workers are getting infected at a high rate.

Ok, Buzz Killington.

Yeah, if that scales across the country, things will get worse. Way worse.

 

[jsharmon7]

Ok, Buzz Killington.

Yeah, if that scales across the country, things will get worse. Way worse.

Interesting that the article states hospital officials don’t believe the employees contracted it at work. What a convenient position. That could get expensive as a work comp claim.

 

[jamil]

We'll just have to disagree on this. I am hopeful for many things. I hope I am right, I hope Trrump is right, I hope the scientist is able to gather the date he wants quickly. I like being hopeful and looking for every possible positive we can find in such a negative place we have evolved into.

Yes, I do find that there are false hopes out there. Magic potions, colloidal silver....yada yada yada. That is not the kind of hope I have.

Okay. That's fair enough. If it's just, I want to be hopeful, awesome. The glass is half full. But I'm more of the mind that the glass contains what it contains. I want an accurate number. "The glass is at 52.735 percent capacity" contains way more useful information than the glass is half full or the glass is half empty.

 

[T.Lex]

Interesting that the article states hospital officials don’t believe the employees contracted it at work. What a convenient position. That could get expensive as a work comp claim.

Yeah, with the complete lack of meaningful contact tracing (as far as I can tell), that kind of statement barely even registers with me.

We don't know and it kinda doesn't matter. :/

(BTW, part of what makes contact tracing difficult is that the incubation period for this can be so long. With things like the flu and ebola, you know pretty soon if you have it.)

 

[HoughMade]

Yeah, with the complete lack of meaningful contact tracing (as far as I can tell), that kind of statement barely even registers with me.

We don't know and it kinda doesn't matter. :/

(BTW, part of what makes contact tracing difficult is that the incubation period for this can be so long. With things like the flu and ebola, you know pretty soon if you have it.)

All I know is that it's been well over 2 weeks since I've been in the same place as a friend who has it. In about 3 days, it will be 2 weeks since I've been around anyone who was around him....and I haven't been around anyone else from our social group in those same 10+ days. So chances are, when I get it, it will be from some other route.

 

[jwamplerusa]

Interesting daily updates here -> https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

Today's report here, telling graphic on page 9 -> https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0325-sitrep-65-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=ce13061b_2
Personally I don't believe the orange columns as I believe it is dominated by China, for which reporting is highly suspect.

 

[T.Lex]

So, Indiana just tallied 3 more deaths, and 168 cases. That puts us at 17/645. About 2.5% mortality (with a small sample size), which is more in line with European (non-Italy) numbers than the overall US reported numbers.

Quick sidenote about that. If we assume the actual US rate is more like 3%, then the actual deaths in the US is roughly double what is being reported (2,046).


Bonus stat: based on the reported number of US infections and the stated rate of critical cases, there's about 3.5k critical cases in the US. Those will occupy an ICU bed for 10-14 days.

And thanks to qwerty for updating the official INGO numbers.

 

[jamil]

I think at this point I'd be really happy if we could get out of F.U.D. mode (Fear/Uncertainty/Doubt). I think we all have a case of FUD right now and it makes fact-finding vitally important so that we make the right decisions for ourselves and families. I think of that couple who drank the fish tank cleaner. That was a case of FUD-caused death. I think about the families who have had to live in the same home for days or weeks after a family member has died because no one had the courage to suit up and take care of it. That's FUD too.

Facts defeat FUD. And maybe the facts are elusive and hard to find when everyone is FUD-stricken. Or maybe the facts we have don't point to the conclusion you wanted, but it's not what you want that make facts what they are. Facts don't care about the reality you want to exist. I guess I'm urging people to care way more about what's real than what you want to be real. Reality, especially now, is more important than sides or ideologies or political parties. What is real? What is really happening? Why is it happening this way? Really. Not the convenient answer which feeds your worldview. What are all the facts that construct the reality around you? Is that perceived reality real?

 

[nonobaddog]

What? I didn’t say Trump only gets his information from such sources. I saw the press conference live. He had a an expert right there saying that it’s premature to claim those meds were effective. And Trump was right there saying they were. So he had an expert on the same stage, yet Trump couldn’t defer to the expert. Sometimes the people you respect are full of ****. It’s good to be able to admit when they are. Trump was full if ****. Not on everything. But in that he was full of **** for overriding an expert in the field with his own irrational beliefs.

I'm afraid you did say exactly that.

I mean, he has zero domain knowledge other than what he reads on distastefully bright-colored websites that peddle bull****.

Everybody knows you know better, but..

 

[Ziggidy]

What are all the facts that construct the reality around you? Is that perceived reality real?

I’ll agree but also state that when we just focus on facts and data, we lose creativity. We fail to think outside the box where real discoveries take place. It is more than a numbers game.


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