Coronavirus II

[OurDee]

"In my mind, if we can get 3 days in a row of decreasing deaths by at least 20%, then that's a trend. (One is a fluke, 2 is luck, 3 is a pattern.) If we can get a week of decreasing deaths, and then a static level of hospitalizations/deaths, then I think we can start to unwind a bit. That will allow us to focus on the hotspots."

3 will work, but I prefer 5.

 

[hoosierdoc]

I heard sudden loss of smell sometimes precedes symptoms.

Anyone know if erectile dysfunction means anything with corona virus? Asking for a friend. If you don't want to post publicly just message Tactically Fat

 

[CampingJosh]

Anyone know if erectile dysfunction means anything with corona virus? Asking for a friend. If you don't want to post publicly just message Tactically Fat

 

[smokingman]

I heard sudden loss of smell sometimes precedes symptoms.

Anyone know if erectile dysfunction means anything with corona virus? Asking for a friend. If you don't want to post publicly just message Tactically Fat

https://t.co/AYuBuabSvM?amp=1

Loss of smell is a sign sars-cov-2 has invaded the nervous system.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-...-covid-19-can-target-the-nervous-system-67312


Implications of neurological infection by SARS-CoV-2

[FONT=&amp]Mannan emphasizes that the neurological data on SARS-CoV-2, though preliminary, could be important for doctors deciding how to treat patients. Asking about neurological symptoms—loss of taste or smell, twitching, seizures—could factor into who might go into acute respiratory failure, or at least who might suffer from it soonest, and allow for more efficient triaging of patients, with a close eye kept on those with neurological symptoms. “It is important to screen the patients for neurological signs early and late in the course of COVID-19,” he says, “as this could be life-saving in our fight against COVID-19 pandemic.”


[/FONT] Once within the milieu of the neuronal tissues, its interaction with ACE2 receptors (Figure 1C, D) expressed in neurons(2) can initiate a cycle of viral budding accompanied by neuronal damage without substantial inflammation as has been seen with cases of SARS-CoV(3) in the past. It is important to mention here that, long before the proposed anticipated neuronal damages occur, the endothelial ruptures in cerebral capillaries accompanied by bleeding within the cerebral tissue can have fatal consequences in patients with COVID-19 infections. The movement of the COVID-19 virus to the brain via the cribriform plate close to the olfactory bulb can be an additional pathway that could enable the virus to reach and affect the brain. Additionally, the findings like an altered sense of smell or hyposmia in an uncomplicated early stage COVID-19 patient should be investigated thoroughly for CNS involvement.

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acschemneuro.0c00122

 

[T.Lex]

I have updated the spreadsheet with the updated numbers. There were some corrections to the US figures going back about 7 days so there will be some difference in past numbers, although not much.

Yeah, I'm not changing mine. The total is caught up, and that's mostly what matters.

The Oxford Study is interesting and although someone said it was just an "Apple advertising blog", the "blog" was just referring to the article published to the Financial Times, not publishing it themselves. For those interested who do not have a subscription, I burned off a PDF here: https://app.box.com/s/wq9tedclfsh5i2e1572owa3jzba9frtk The links work to the actual Model that the Oxford Study is using.

@T.Lex if you could provide some input on their model that would be awesome, you seem to have your stuff together.

Fake it 'till you make it.

When I read this, "While the estimate draws on hospitalisation rates in Italy...." that's where I see an issue. Italy's rates are/were really bad. No way to explain how or quantify by how much. But, that alone tends to make this like a worst-case scenario planning strategy. Which is totally fine, if that's what the task is. But that should not be presented as a middling or conservative estimate. It isn't.

There's also a shade of "we need this to support the gov't lockdown." That's probably fine from a policy perspective, but more than a little misleading.

 

[smokingman]

Indiana
Positive cases 477
Deaths 14
Total tested 3,356 (not sure why it is so low).
https://coronavirus.in.gov/

Minnesota
Positive cases 262
deaths 1
total tests 5812
https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html

 

[T.Lex]

The 14 deaths for 477 positive cases is about 3% mortality, which is in line with France and Spain.

Playing with the numbers, and indulging some cynicism, there's a good chance our national numbers are artificially low - both positive cases and deaths. And if that's the case, then the disconnect makes sense between what the expert epidemiologists are saying (about the crush on the system) and what the objective numbers suggest.

If - intentionally or unintentionally - the reported numbers are an order of magnitude off, that's unconscionable.

 

[maxwelhse]

And for the record, there is NO overthowing your monkey overlords.

Challenge accepted!

(not me... but... I'm a disciple of the AK shotgun)

[video=youtube;Pw7TcP9zXU4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pw7TcP9zXU4[/video]

 

[HoughMade]

 

[maxwelhse]

I see the RV/trailer makers are still working this morning. The usual traffic seems to be heading in to the factory area.

I can you for sure that is not universally true...

 

[smokingman]

The 14 deaths for 477 positive cases is about 3% mortality, which is in line with France and Spain.

Playing with the numbers, and indulging some cynicism, there's a good chance our national numbers are artificially low - both positive cases and deaths. And if that's the case, then the disconnect makes sense between what the expert epidemiologists are saying (about the crush on the system) and what the objective numbers suggest.

If - intentionally or unintentionally - the reported numbers are an order of magnitude off, that's unconscionable.

I still remember February 5th,2020 when the CDC sent test kits out to 100 labs only to then tell them not to use them. As of Tuesday March 24th 82 labs in the USA could perform tests. That is not what I would call a decent response time. It is almost like someone does not want us testing honestly.

Consider this Haiti was doing a swab test of EVERY arrival via air flight to the country last week. After the second case was detected they shut down incoming flights.3/22/2020
https://www.pressherald.com/2020/03/22/haitians-rush-for-supplies-after-first-covid-19-cases-found/

Countries 1/20th our size have done more testing than we have.

Per 1000 citizens we have lower testing rates than any country in Europe or Asia(less India,Pakistan,and Vietnam)
South Africa has tested more per 1000 than we have,and they started testing more than a month after we did.

Something is not right.

 

[T.Lex]

More fun with numbers.

Since 3/15 the reported deaths have been doubling every 3 days, pretty consistently.

Based on reported positive cases, that extrapolates from ~2,700 to ~5,000 critical patients, focused in the hotspots. That's ICU beds. I haven't seen reported numbers on that, but I am aware anecdotally that presumptive COVID patients are in ICUs in counties that do not reflect those cases. That is, there is under-reporting of positives, and those un-reported cases are severe.

Italy has had no more than 2 days in a row of decreasing deaths, with their record high being set last week. They may be on a downward trend, but it is not smooth. If we are 7 days behind them (statistically), our peak might come in the next couple days.

 

[T.Lex]

I still remember February 5th,2020 when the CDC sent test kits out to 100 labs only to then tell them not to use them. As of Tuesday March 24th 82 labs in the USA could perform tests. That is not what I would call a decent response time. It is almost like someone does not want us testing honestly.

Consider this Haiti was doing a swab test of EVERY arrival via air flight to the country last week. After the second case was detected they shut down incoming flights.3/22/2020
https://www.pressherald.com/2020/03/22/haitians-rush-for-supplies-after-first-covid-19-cases-found/

Countries 1/20th our size have done more testing than we have.

Per 1000 citizens we have lower testing rates than any country in Europe or Asia.
South Africa has tested more per 1000 than we have,and they started testing more than a month after we did.

Something is not right.

Indeed. I don't even look at ROK numbers. They tested the **** out of their population, so they could isolate and catch any rebound cases. They knew (pretty closely) the universe of 1st generation (or close 2d) patients and could deal with it.

That was a symptom of unpreparedness on our part. I can accept that those "early" numbers, probably up to this week, are off. We may see a "correction" very soon, with a big jump. Frankly, I would welcome that. It would look terrible, but the reality is that it would be helpful for everyone to understand what's going on and make informed decisions.

 

[smokingman]

More fun with numbers.

Since 3/15 the reported deaths have been doubling every 3 days, pretty consistently.

Based on reported positive cases, that extrapolates from ~2,700 to ~5,000 critical patients, focused in the hotspots. That's ICU beds. I haven't seen reported numbers on that, but I am aware anecdotally that presumptive COVID patients are in ICUs in counties that do not reflect those cases. That is, there is under-reporting of positives, and those un-reported cases are severe.

Italy has had no more than 2 days in a row of decreasing deaths, with their record high being set last week. They may be on a downward trend, but it is not smooth. If we are 7 days behind them (statistically), our peak might come in the next couple days.

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-...e-remaining-hospital-capacity-across-america/

Given our response our peak will not be in 2 days. Most places have not had any kind of stay at home order for more than a few days.

And the mass exodus from infected areas is going to spread it. New York is just the ones making the headlines. My mom went out yesterday(she wanted to do one more grocery trip) and called me to tell me she saw 3 NJ plates in the parking lot in Franklin Indiana.
I am sure California,Washington State have had those who fled as well.

Heck here in little Two Harbors Minnesota plenty have showed up at second homes from all over the country(many multi million dollar homes on lake Superior).

 

[nonobaddog]

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-...e-remaining-hospital-capacity-across-america/

Given our response our peak will not be in 2 days. Most places have not had any kind of stay at home order for more than a few days.

Right - there is no way in hell we will have our peak in 2 days.

 

[T.Lex]

https://www.nationalreview.com/the-...e-remaining-hospital-capacity-across-america/

Given our response our peak will not be in 2 days. Most places have not had any kind of stay at home order for more than a few days.

And the mass exodus from infected areas is going to spread it. New York is just the ones making the headlines. My mom went out yesterday(she wanted to do one more grocery trip) and called me to tell me she saw 3 NJ plates in the parking lot in Franklin Indiana.
I am sure California,Washington State have had those who fled as well.

Heck here in little Two Harbors Minnesota plenty have showed up at second homes from all over the country(many multi million dollar homes on lake Superior).

ha A close friend of the family, he and his wife would be in the high risk group, have a place up there. They're not going, though, because even the trip would pose dangers of interactions.

I continue to use 3/13 as the anchor date for USian... soft lockdown. Canceling the NCAA tourney/NBA games/etc. was huge. That minimized interactions significantly. These more recent lockdowns are pretty much stating the obvious: people should stay home. At least that's they way I view it here in the heartland.

Look, if the peak doesn't come by the end of the month, AND we start getting reliable data, then the worst case scenarios are going to be closer to reality. And you'll be able to block quote some of your own posts on the matter.

 

[KittySlayer]

I heard sudden loss of smell sometimes precedes symptoms.

How will I know if I am maintaining the proper distance?

 

[maxwelhse]

How will I know if I am maintaining the proper distance?

I've cleared some pretty good size rooms before... Challenge accepted!

 

[ArcadiaGP]

SJW take:

Reality:

 

[Sigblitz]

Challenge accepted!

(not me... but... I'm a disciple of the AK shotgun)

[video=youtube;Pw7TcP9zXU4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pw7TcP9zXU4[/video]

He was getting tired.
'Who wants to volunteer to get rid of outdated ammo? Nobody? '