Coronavirus II

[maxwelhse]

He was getting tired.
'Who wants to volunteer to get rid of outdated ammo? Nobody? '

He just got punched by a 12 gauge 200 times in about half as many seconds. Even with the low brass he was running, that's no joke.

I remember when he made that video he was like "Best $200 I ever spent", or how ever much it cost at the time. Pretty funny.

 

[Sylvain]

We had a few reports of doctors and nurses in France who had their cars broken into.

Most of them have a card a a sticker with a caduceus on them with the mention "physician" or "nurse" on them.
Some keep special parking badges from their hospital on the windshield too.

Apparently people are looking for masks, gloves and handsanitizer in those vehicles, often also stealing the card to avoid controls at police checkpoints, since healthcare professionals don't have travel restrictions.

Not sure if it's a thing in the US too?

It's a good reminded to not keep any sticker or clues that could give away what's in your car (NRA stickers etc).

Medical kits, guns, ammo etc ... You can guess what's in a vehicle based on many things.


We had people trying to break into our local fire station as well, also to steal masks from first responders.

 

[maxwelhse]

I haven't heard of anything like that here. The only medical ID on cars I've ever noticed is parking lots badges and vanity plates and I've never heard of any of those cars being specifically targeted before. It probably helps that we're also not on an actual "lock down".

I strongly agree with you that you shouldn't have a bunch of stickers all over your car advertising your political beliefs. You're just asking for trouble and violating the "gray man" doctrine.

 

[qwerty]

Fake it 'till you make it.

When I read this, "While the estimate draws on hospitalisation rates in Italy...." that's where I see an issue. Italy's rates are/were really bad. No way to explain how or quantify by how much. But, that alone tends to make this like a worst-case scenario planning strategy. Which is totally fine, if that's what the task is. But that should not be presented as a middling or conservative estimate. It isn't.

There's also a shade of "we need this to support the gov't lockdown." That's probably fine from a policy perspective, but more than a little misleading.

Thank you. I am sorry for not being clear, but I was wondering about your opinion on the Oxford Study and their modeling. The link for that was on the first page of that PDF from Financial Times. The quote you mentioned was from the Imperial Study which I agree with your assessment.

 

[MCgrease08]

I now have a co-worker who is in isolation.

Apparently one of her friends works for Lilly and was part of a test group that volunteered to try out their new test kits and she (the Lilly employee) showed as positive. She had been experiencing a runny nose and itchy eyes that she attributed to normal springtime allergy symptoms. Other than that, no symptoms.

But apparently my co-worker had this person over to her house a few times over the past two weeks, so now they are both in isolation.

 

[Sigblitz]

We had a few reports of doctors and nurses in France who had their cars broken into.

Most of them have a card a a sticker with a caduceus on them with the mention "physician" or "nurse" on them.
Some keep special parking badges from their hospital on the windshield too.

Apparently people are looking for masks, gloves and handsanitizer in those vehicles, often also stealing the card to avoid controls at police checkpoints, since healthcare professionals don't have travel restrictions.

Not sure if it's a thing in the US too?

It's a good reminded to not keep any sticker or clues that could give away what's in your car (NRA stickers etc).

Medical kits, guns, ammo etc ... You can guess what's in a vehicle based on many things.


We had people trying to break into our local fire station as well, also to steal masks from first responders.

We're low on masks. I'm wearing one every day and my wife washes them somehow. Most states here have closed nonessential business and travel, but they're not pulling people over. Stores, liquor stores, carry out restaurants are still open but with new temporary hours. Our ban started today and there is more people out today than yesterday. I think some were staying home from work hoping they wouldn't be allowed to go today, but the McDonald's drive through worker is an essential employee.

 

[chezuki]

I heard sudden loss of smell sometimes precedes symptoms.

Anyone know if erectile dysfunction means anything with corona virus? Asking for a friend. If you don't want to post publicly just message Tactically Fat

“Tactically Flaccid”

 

[ghuns]

...And the mass exodus from infected areas is going to spread it. New York is just the ones making the headlines...

190 direct flights from NY to Florida, just on Monday.

New Yorkers visiting Florida must self-quarantine for two weeks, governor orders

And I'd imagine a non zero number are just driving their happy arses.

 

[T.Lex]

Thank you. I am sorry for not being clear, but I was wondering about your opinion on the Oxford Study and their modeling. The link for that was on the first page of that PDF from Financial Times. The quote you mentioned was from the Imperial Study which I agree with your assessment.

Ah, right - I missed that my first time through that FT article.

First, this is where my amateur status is revealed. The Oxford study gets into some variables and nomenclature I haven't seen, let alone used, for 30 years. I'd suspect theirs is pretty darn good.

Second, though, they are still reliant on Italy, at least for validation of the methodology. So, to the extent that is true, I still believe it is modeling something near the worst-case scenario. Granted, they use the "15 days after 1st reported death" in order to remove any variability based on precautionary measures. I find that fascinating, in part, because it is a bit of a tacit recognition that few countries recognized and addressed the severity of the issue in anything less than 2 weeks.

Finally, ultimately it supports the idea that a significant portion of the population has it and doesn't know it. I'm not sure we're far enough along to quantify how big that is, but it is significant.

 

[smokingman]

Thank you. I am sorry for not being clear, but I was wondering about your opinion on the Oxford Study and their modeling. The link for that was on the first page of that PDF from Financial Times. The quote you mentioned was from the Imperial Study which I agree with your assessment.

Here is the actual study you are talking about.It is a draft model,and a totally non reviewed study.

If you read it you will quickly see the flaw in the study. They are assuming 1% of the population has any comorbitities. IE diabetes,heart disease,age,obesity,existing lung issues.
Do you think that is in any way an actual picture of the British population where the leading cause of death is heart disease?
It shows right in table 1.b that they expect it to quickly fall below 1% susceptibilities that would require hospitalization.

It is junk science with shinny numbers some politicians and businesses in Great Britain asked for. It is by no means a legitimate model or study based on the model.
I guarantee no journal on earth would publish it and no real scientist would use a model based admittedly on less than 1% of the population having any risk from covid-19
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf?dl=0

 

[ghitch75]

Wuhan Virus

 

[T.Lex]

Here is the actual study you are talking about.It is a draft model,and a totally non reviewed study.

If you read it you will quickly see the flaw in the study. They are assuming 1% of the population has any comorbitities. IE diabetes,heart disease,age,obesity,existing lung issues.
Do you think that is in any way an actual picture of the British population where the leading cause of death is heart disease?
It shows right in table 1.b that they expect it to quickly fall below 1% susceptibilities that would require hospitalization.

It is junk science with shinny numbers some politicians and businesses in Great Britain asked for. It is by no means a legitimate model or study based on the model.
I guarantee no journal on earth would publish it and no real scientist would use a model based admittedly on less than 1% of the population having any risk from covid-19
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf?dl=0

I wouldn't call it junk science, yet. As you (and they) note, it is a draft model that isn't peer reviewed. It is a step towards something more robust. That's also basically why they need to validate it with something, so they use the worst case Europe has to offer - Italy.

The point about the 1% comorbidities - at least they way I took it - was to have that as a placeholder. Change that number, and the results change.

Another inference is that there's alot they still don't know about how to model this. We just don't have reliable numbers. Well, the most reliable numbers we have from Europe are pretty bleak.

 

[Sigblitz]

190 direct flights from NY to Florida, just on Monday.

New Yorkers visiting Florida must self-quarantine for two weeks, governor orders

And I'd imagine a non zero number are just driving their happy arses.

Why would anybody want to leave New York?

 

[maxwelhse]

Why would anybody want to leave New York?

You fishing for another Snake Pliskin reference in this thread?

 

[maxwelhse]

I now have a co-worker who is in isolation.

Apparently one of her friends works for Lilly and was part of a test group that volunteered to try out their new test kits and she (the Lilly employee) showed as positive. She had been experiencing a runny nose and itchy eyes that she attributed to normal springtime allergy symptoms. Other than that, no symptoms.

But apparently my co-worker had this person over to her house a few times over the past two weeks, so now they are both in isolation.

I've felt exactly like that for the last 1.5 weeks. Allergy symptoms that get better some days, worse others, but have not at all progressed into anything flu like. No temp, no cough.

I'm pretty sure it's allergies (and I'm doing my social distancing and staying home as much as possible and all of that), but those kind of reports concern me...

 

[Sigblitz]

You fishing for another Snake Pliskin reference in this thread?

ISWYDT

But I never fish for snakes.

 

[nonobaddog]

Here is the actual study you are talking about.It is a draft model,and a totally non reviewed study.

If you read it you will quickly see the flaw in the study. They are assuming 1% of the population has any comorbitities. IE diabetes,heart disease,age,obesity,existing lung issues.
Do you think that is in any way an actual picture of the British population where the leading cause of death is heart disease?
It shows right in table 1.b that they expect it to quickly fall below 1% susceptibilities that would require hospitalization.

It is junk science with shinny numbers some politicians and businesses in Great Britain asked for. It is by no means a legitimate model or study based on the model.
I guarantee no journal on earth would publish it and no real scientist would use a model based admittedly on less than 1% of the population having any risk from covid-19
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf?dl=0

They just wanted to publish something even though it is not ready for prime time - or any time for that matter.

 

[Sigblitz]

I walk around in a cloud with 2 cans of Lysol.

 

[Sigblitz]

Well, half of that is true.

 

[MarkC]

Why would anybody want to leave New York?

As noted over and over across INGO and other blogs/message boards with a more conservative membership-after they have jacked up their liberal paradises, they migrate to other areas not yet suffering from the miasma their policies bring. For example, Californians invading Colorado.

So, when their hyper-dense living and lack of individual amenities (like no individual vehicle, no washer and dryer) turn out to be sub-optimal for appropriate social distancing, they flee, bringing their unrealistic values with them.

I know Sig's post was in snark, but it identifies the point. They're cool with living like that, until they're not.