Coronavirus II

[T.Lex]

Trump wanted to shut down his entire economy so he would lose the election in November!

Not the craziest thing I've heard this week.

 

[HoughMade]

Not the craziest thing I've heard this week.

I can decide whether you think this is plausible, or whether you've been listening to some crazy ass stuff.

 

[foszoe]

CoVid is shorthand for Corona Virus Disease, it refers to the illness not the origins of the virus.
Et tu, foszté? The term of concealment you're looking for is SARS-CoV 2

I thought the 19 referred to year of discovery. If so it could be subject to a 2000 in 2100.

 

[T.Lex]

I can decide whether you think this is plausible, or whether you've been listening to some crazy ass stuff.

Welcome to INGO....

 

[CountryBoy1981]

Not the craziest thing I've heard this week.

Sorry I should have put it in purple but that would have to be the logic of people who think this is a hoax.

 

[foszoe]

That explains why he never signed the constitution!

Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

- Benjamin Franklin

 

[Alpo]

In case you were wondering, my credentials as a statistical epidemiologist consist of having been buried in ice for thousands of years, only to be unfrozen in this confusing modern era.

And we give those credentials about as much value as an extra ice cube in a vodka martini on the rocks. It would have been better for both of us if you were an olive.

 

[T.Lex]

And we give those credentials about as much value as an extra ice cube in a vodka martini on the rocks. It would have been better for both of us if you were an olive.

You can call me Rob Roy.

 

[Sigblitz]

I'm caught up. I finally got some exercise getting the lawn up to standards.

We have freedom to travel, but can get a ticket for being out if nonessential. Restrictions for public health and safety.
Churches have the right to assemble, but only in groups of 10. Restrictions for public health and safety.
Saying that religious organizations are above this is like saying they're immune because they're covered in Jesus's blood. Restrictions apply to everyone. Churches aren't above the law and have no special immunity.

 

[Alpo]

I continue to believe that this lack of freedom (self-imposed, for the most part) will remind people of how important freedom is (along with liberty). Once we get through this, people will look for all sorts of reasons to exercise their freedoms.

And I also think they will look suspiciously at any efforts to put more teeth in the pre-existing public health and safety laws. The existing laws seem to be sufficient, so I'm not sure what the impetus would be to take on more power.

We'll see, but I think those efforts would be resisted.

[video=youtube_share;jl0hMfqNQ-g]http://youtu.be/jl0hMfqNQ-g[/video]

 

[Alpo]

And lots of cheap **** that breaks right away.

That's what my dad used to say about Japan....until they kicked our ass in the auto and electronics markets.

Never underestimate an enemy. Didn't you read Sun Tzu?

 

[jsharmon7]

In case you were wondering, my credentials as a statistical epidemiologist consist of having been buried in ice for thousands of years, only to be unfrozen in this confusing modern era.

Opinions on warning shots aside, I think you’ve been on it in terms of numbers.

Updated models show just over 1,000 more deaths in Indiana over the next 10 days. Given that we had 34 new deaths, does 100 deaths a day until peak seem reasonable to you?

 

[hoosierdoc]

Deaths are a lagging indicator of disease spread. Anyone who claims COVID is worsening by showing daily deaths instead of new cases is trying to keep you frightened.

you need to wonder why

what else is amazing is people are dying with COVID so therefore it's a COVID death. never mind they were 90 and on hospice for metastatic lung CA.

mortality figures for cancer, pneumonia, and heart disease are going to plummet these months because it's all blamed on COVID

 

[KG1]

I don't seem to find an "unless the state claims infringement is required in response to a pandemic" exception in the text of the first amendment.

That said, I'll play along, and pretend that "strict scrutiny" is a constitutionally valid method of determining when the state can act in otherwise unconstitutional ways. Please justify the state compelling the prohibition of religious gatherings, under strict scrutiny.

Pretty sure this particular poster you quoted has a bias and would give a thumbs up to any reason for prohibiting religious gatherings based on previous posts in other religious discussions.

 

[BugI02]

How do we judge the integrity or quality of anonymous posts on the internet? And via the wayback machine?

I'm sorry, but I'd like some more information before labeling that article "excellent" or even "trustworthy."

smokingman posted an online paper upthread that indicated the same mechanism in CoVid 19 infection, the results were derived from computer modeling of the molecules involved - no in vitro or in vivo work as yet. Chinese researchers

 

[Alpo]

Pretty sure this particular poster you quoted has a bias and would give a thumbs up to any reason for prohibiting religious gatherings based on previous posts in other religious discussions.

 

[T.Lex]

Opinions on warning shots aside, I think you’ve been on it in terms of numbers.

Updated models show just over 1,000 more deaths in Indiana over the next 10 days. Given that we had 34 new deaths, does 100 deaths a day until peak seem reasonable to you?

Well, I come at it a bit differently. We have 173 now (allegedly). Doubling every 3 days (which is where we were nationally towards the end of March), would mean 346 on April 10 and ~700 by April 13 and ~1,400 by April 16. So... yeah... using the worst case doubling factor.

Indiana has always been "better" than that average. Today at 173 means we've doubled in 10 days to get to here (88 on 3/28). Our numbers are still pretty small, though, so it is hard to really judge.

Instead of labeling it "reasonable," I'd say that it would reflect a worst-case-scenario.

Importantly, we don't have (that I know of) data on critical cases. If we're sitting on 2,000 critical cases across the state, then yeah - probably 1,500 of them will die in the next 10 days.

Deaths are a lagging indicator of disease spread. Anyone who claims COVID is worsening by showing daily deaths instead of new cases is trying to keep you frightened.

you need to wonder why

What about those saying that the number of deaths per day may actual signal improving conditions.

On a related note, at some point, the "new" diagnoses will reflect more contact tracing than active cases right? I mean, once someone is in the hospital with a positive coronavirus test, that number gets tallied. No need to really test them again - we kinda know what's wrong.

That will be another major inflection point. When the number of tests given produce a fewer percentage of "new" diagnoses.

Oh, and I'm still watching the increasing mortality rate.

 

[JettaKnight]

I'm caught up. I finally got some exercise getting the lawn up to standards.

We have freedom to travel, but can get a ticket for being out if nonessential. Restrictions for public health and safety.
Churches have the right to assemble, but only in groups of 10. Restrictions for public health and safety.
Saying that religious organizations are above this is like saying they're immune because they're covered in Jesus's blood. Restrictions apply to everyone. Churches aren't above the law and have no special immunity.

Well, there is (wonder working) power in the blood.

 

[BugI02]

In South Korea they found only 3% of those tested were positive, with a 1.9% death rate. I believe South Korea has the highest percentage of population tested sick or not so far. If I'm wrong let me know. I'm trying to patch together the little information I'm finding from SK. I think they would be a better country to get a percentage sample from.

Taiwan did an excellent job, also and likely would be a good source of reliable information. It seems living next to a hostile, psychopathic neighbor has a positive effect on readiness

 

[femurphy77]

Godzilla?


[Yeah yeah yeah, I know, but it is a funny callback.]