Running some quick numbers:
- there are 1,134 delegates still remaining
- Trump: 621, Cruz: 396; the Spoilers' Total: 327
- magic number = 1,237
Most of the next round (and really, the remaining) are either winner-take-all or winner-take-most. So, Cruz will have to actually win some states to keep apace. If they split the remaining delegates, Trump only ends up with ~1,200.
IMHO, Utah and Arizona on March 22 are really litmus tests. Those total 98 delegates (AZ = winner take all, UT = winner take most), but will be much more meaningful than that. Cruz will have to win that day to prove that he can win the middle of the country.
After that, the primaries take an East Coast swing and I fully expect Trump to run the table. Cruz will have to seriously overachieve to make a dent there.
Same concepts expressed here:
Trump risks falling short of delegate count for nomination | TheHill
- there are 1,134 delegates still remaining
- Trump: 621, Cruz: 396; the Spoilers' Total: 327
- magic number = 1,237
Most of the next round (and really, the remaining) are either winner-take-all or winner-take-most. So, Cruz will have to actually win some states to keep apace. If they split the remaining delegates, Trump only ends up with ~1,200.
IMHO, Utah and Arizona on March 22 are really litmus tests. Those total 98 delegates (AZ = winner take all, UT = winner take most), but will be much more meaningful than that. Cruz will have to win that day to prove that he can win the middle of the country.
After that, the primaries take an East Coast swing and I fully expect Trump to run the table. Cruz will have to seriously overachieve to make a dent there.
Same concepts expressed here:
Trump risks falling short of delegate count for nomination | TheHill