The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[Spear Dane]

I think this is already turning out to be a singularly bad year for polling. Cruz's upsets would be Exhibit A.

I would say the poll that had Hillary up 30+ in MI on Monday is exhibit A.

 

[chipbennett]

Well, I'm just saying that a whole bunch of people in the GOPe REALLY don't like him.

Even Trump says Cruz is hated universally by his colleagues in the Senate. I don't recall any other Senators ever declaring their party leader a liar from he well of the Senate.

Cruz has a role to play in this primary, and has played it well. His role was not as a legitimate contender, but rather as a vote/delegate splitter. The original "splitter" plan was designed to result in a Jeb Bush nomination. Once that plan became non-viable, the modified plan was to ensure a brokered convention. So, either way, Ted Cruz winning states/primaries helps the GOPe, because it hinders Trump.

 

[chipbennett]

I would say the poll that had Hillary up 30+ in MI on Monday is exhibit A.

Case in point for why I don't believe any of the polls at any of the extremes (Trump up 20 in Florida, Kasich leading in Ohio, for example).

 

[chipbennett]

[Odd double-post]

 

[ArmedProgrammer]

I suspect that Idaho has more to do with the heavy Mormon population in that state, and that population's response to Romney's idiotic speech. The heavily-Mormon precincts in Idaho went heavily Cruz last night.

Has it ever occurred to you that it was NOT a response to "Romney's idiotic speech" but rather that Mormons , by and large have a BIG problem with TRUMP's idiotic mouth??? As a culture - we have very valid historical reasons to distrust people who start popping off about people of certain religions and how they ought to be put into databases, etc. Historically we've seen the results of populist idiocy, and we tend to take that crap a little personally. We don't do it to others, and we don't expect it to be done to us. Not saying it's universal, but a large percentage of Mormons are GOING to take note of that. I know Mormons that LOVE Trump. I also know a lot that distrust him for the EXACT reason I've laid out above. Romney - again, a Mormon, may have a problem with that too - heck, I DON'T KNOW. I didn't listen to his speech. I'm not a big fan of his.

My thread on the subject was started BEFORE Romney announced his speech. By a couple of days or more.

So my thread COULDN'T have had anything to do with Romney's speech.

Please forgive my frustration - but kindly consider the cultural and historical reasons why groups of people might have for liking or disliking a candidate before suggesting that they are all robots following Romney. In this case, it is demonstrably not the case.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Carly Fiorina Just Endorsed Ted Cruz: Consolidation Begins | The Resurgent

 

[chipbennett]

Please forgive my frustration - but kindly consider the cultural and historical reasons why groups of people might have for liking or disliking a candidate before suggesting that they are all robots following Romney. In this case, it is demonstrably not the case.

I never claimed any such thing; rather, I said that I suspected that the Mormon population of Idaho responded to Romney's speech, and the results reflected that response.

 

[Alpo]

For all of Romney's faults, he's the only viable GOP candidate acceptable to most of the centrist voters. Cruz and Trump have scared the independents straight. And Rubio will be gone by Sunday.

 

[chipbennett]

For all of Romney's faults, he's the only viable GOP candidate acceptable to most of the centrist voters. Cruz and Trump have scared the independents straight. And Rubio will be gone by Sunday.

Romney crashed and burned with the centrist voters in 2012. Trump is pulling in independents in droves. And Rubio, for reasons known only to him, will stick through at least until Florida on 15 March.

 

[ArmedProgrammer]

I never claimed any such thing; rather, I said that I suspected that the Mormon population of Idaho responded to Romney's speech, and the results reflected that response.

And I'm saying that Romney's speech may well have REFLECTED the concerns of the Mormon community , rather than causing a RESPONSE in the Mormon community. I know for a fact that the concerns were already there. I don't know that anyone did any polling, and it likely doesn't matter, but I KNOW that I heard an immediate groundswell of "it had better not be Trump" after Trump opened his mouth in late 2015 on the topic. And then, as Trump started winning - guys like me started looking for a third party. And that was reflected in the other thread. A lot of folks were conflicted (as I was ) due to Trump's flapping his gums.

Words mean things...

 

[Alpo]

Romney didn't do well 4 years ago...but that was 4 years ago. With the group of crazies now running for the GOP nomination, Romney looks pretty good to a lot of people.

And since you don't believe the polls, it's hard to see where you derive that opinion from.

 

[chipbennett]

Romney didn't do well 4 years ago...but that was 4 years ago. With the group of crazies now running for the GOP nomination, Romney looks pretty good to a lot of people.

What changed in the past four years that will suddenly cause the electorate to warm up to Mitt Romney? A Romney nomination = a democrat in the White House.

And since you don't believe the polls, it's hard to see where you derive that opinion from.

Look at the turnout numbers for the elections already held. Compare them to 2008. Where are all those new voters coming from?

 

[chipbennett]

Carly Fiorina Just Endorsed Ted Cruz: Consolidation Begins | The Resurgent

Huh. Who would've figured?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-cruz-super-pac-is-donating-to-carly-fiorina/

 

[miguel]

Carly Fiorina Just Endorsed Ted Cruz: Consolidation Begins | The Resurgent

There's a ****ing game changer!

 

[Alpo]

What changed in the past four years that will suddenly cause the electorate to warm up to Mitt Romney? A Romney nomination = a democrat in the White House.



Look at the turnout numbers for the elections already held. Compare them to 2008. Where are all those new voters coming from?

A lot of democrats don't like Hillary and don't want to see her (or Bill) in charge. Bernie is a great human being, but he isn't likely to do much better than pull in the Gene McCarthy/Adlai Stevenson folks from the boomers and the kids. Hillary will get the nomination barring arrest by the FBI.

That leaves a sizable percentage of voters looking for a sane, centrist poilitician. A RINO. That's Romney. Or Huntsman. I think Mitt can win if he's learned anything from his prior run.

ps. I'll say it here because the truth isn't edited out on this forum; A sizable block of voters want a WHITE, MALE candidate with government experience. Trump never hit their radar. Romney is a serious man, with strong spiritual credentials (as viewed by most), good business experience and a governor of one of the most liberal states. Almost an ideal candidate in this field of uber-clowns.

 

[chipbennett]

A lot of democrats don't like Hillary and don't want to see her (or Bill) in charge. Bernie is a great human being, but he isn't likely to do much better than pull in the Gene McCarthy/Adlai Stevenson folks from the boomers and the kids. Hillary will get the nomination barring arrest by the FBI.

That leaves a sizable percentage of voters looking for a sane, centrist poilitician. A RINO. That's Romney. Or Huntsman. I think Mitt can win if he's learned anything from his prior run.

In my lifetime, I've held my nose to vote for big-government/centrist/RINOs Bob Dole, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. Every single one lost, and lost badly.

The electorate does not want, has never wanted, a RINO/centrist.

Trump is not a RINO/centrist; he is a populist. He's clearly connecting with a considerable amount of the electorate, in a way that RINO/centrists never will.

 

[Alpo]

Sorry. Trump is scary. Dr. Strangelove. The uneducated love the 3-ring thrill of the circus, but his negatives are way too high to get elected.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

WSJ/NBC poll: Two-thirds of voters say they couldn’t support Trump, 56% say they couldn't vote for Clinton

WSJ/NBC Poll: Tenor of Campaign Takes a Toll - WSJ

 

[chipbennett]

Sorry. Trump is scary. Dr. Strangelove. The uneducated love the 3-ring thrill of the circus, but his negatives are way too high to get elected.

Hey, I have my own reservations about Trump.

I have none about Hilary Clinton. I would vote for Satan to prevent her from winning the White House.

 

[chipbennett]

WSJ/NBC poll: Two-thirds of voters say they couldn’t support Trump, 56% say they couldn't vote for Clinton

WSJ/NBC Poll: Tenor of Campaign Takes a Toll - WSJ

You realize that WSJ/NBC poll has proven itself to be the single, most laughably outlying poll in a campaign cycle fraught with inaccurate polls, right? It is conducted by a PR firm, not a polling firm. It's an agenda poll; nothing more.