Idaho surprised me. Last poll I could see had Trump +11 (~2x the MOE). That could end up a precursor to a beltline strategy that Cruz uses in flyover country. The field (mostly Rubio) has enough delegates to play spoiler and cause a brokered convention, if Cruz can win most of the rest of the middle of the country.
Florida and Ohio still hold the keys, though.
I suspect that Idaho has more to do with the heavy Mormon population in that state, and that population's response to Romney's idiotic speech. The heavily-Mormon precincts in Idaho went heavily Cruz last night.
I suspect that Idaho has more to do with the heavy Mormon population in that state, and that population's response to Romney's idiotic speech. The heavily-Mormon precincts in Idaho went heavily Cruz last night.
I don't see a path to 1,237 for Cruz. He would have to be able to win at least one of the large winner take all delegate states. Which one? I don't see him taking Florida, Ohio, New York, Illinois, or California.
Has it occurred to you that Trump may not be as popular as some of his victories imply? This is yet another closed primary state that didn't go for Trump. By a lot. Trump wins when Democrats get to vote for Republicans. Again I'll ask, do you really think all those democrats voting for republicans will vote for the republican in the general election?
Has it occurred to you that Trump may not be as popular as some of his victories imply? This is yet another closed primary state that didn't go for Trump. By a lot. Trump wins when Democrats get to vote for Republicans. Again I'll ask, do you really think all those democrats voting for republicans will vote for the republican in the general election?
But, I think it is clear that Trump is attracting cross-overs. And not the Limbaugh Operation Chaos (or whatever he called it) cross-overs - people who genuinely think Trump is a good candidate. Perhaps he's getting people who were not otherwise registered, like Obama did in 2008.
I think this is already turning out to be a singularly bad year for polling. Cruz's upsets would be Exhibit A.
Just ask Thomas Dewey.Polling is certainly not reliable, but it is never THAT bad, all in the same direction. (And polling in caucus/closed primary states does attempt to control for the closed nature of the election.)
At some point, someone will look at the probability of a single candidate out-performing polling by 15-20%, in a particular type of election, and realize that chances that it is happening randomly are quite slim. Oklahoma and Kansas, in particular, do not pass the smell test. (And if Cruz hadn't pulled his dirty trick against Carson in Iowa, Trump would have won that state.)
Regardless, I don't see Cruz having the right connections or infrastructure to commit mass fraud. Remember - he is not liked by the GOPe.
Ted Cruz IS Establishment. He's a product of the Bush machine.
Even Trump says Cruz is hated universally by his colleagues in the Senate. I don't recall any other Senators ever declaring their party leader a liar from he well of the Senate.Well, I'm just saying that a whole bunch of people in the GOPe REALLY don't like him.