The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[Alpo]

Popular? Just look at all the states he's won.

But seriously (a little), Trump is the most popular, and not exactly young. That youth thing was my own opinion of what the GOP needs, not an endorsement of any current candidate. I think Mitch Daniels is more connected with a youthful perspective, although not objectively young.

I think any discussion of Bernie's chances is academic....if it's not, I reserve judgement. BUT, I think Bernie does well in NY, FL, OH and CA against almost any republican nominee. Clinton will have trouble with OH and FL and perhaps CA.

 

[T.Lex]

BUT, I think Bernie does well in NY, FL, OH and CA against almost any republican nominee.

Way to go out on a limb speculating that a socialist will do well in 2 of the most socialist states in the union (NY and CA).

As most modern presidential cycles go, FL and OH will be key.

I've got enough trouble tracking the Republican race, there's no way I can pay that much attention to the Dems at this point.

I did skim the raw primary totals, and it is hard for me to sort out the Trump Effect. If he is the nominee, how many voters for the field will stay home? If he isn't, how many of his voters will stay home? Are the Dems in the middle of their own identity crisis that will suppress turnout?

Is gonna be a crazy summer.

 

[Alpo]

CNN announced polling data showing Trump with 40% and Rubio with 19% in FL. Rubio is toast.

It is probably as true as ever that as California and NY go, so go the national trends. Holds true for cultural issues, style, language, art, education, etc. Grab and hold on to the 20th century as much as you like. Things are changing. Doesn't mean I agree with it, but I'm so old that it doesn't matter to me. It's someone else's century.

 

[T.Lex]

Did some more playing with RCP's delegate counter. Even conceding FL and OH to Trump, if Cruz can bridge the midwest/western states from TX to ID and east to Indiana (sacrificing Illinois to Trump), he can still stymie Trump's majority.

There's very little margin for error, though. And it isn't very pretty.

ETA:
If Indiana goes Trump in the trending ratio, then that would give him the majority - not at the time, but it would be the right number of delegates.

 

[BugI02]

Even Trump says Cruz is hated universally by his colleagues in the Senate. I don't recall any other Senators ever declaring their party leader a liar from he well of the Senate.

I believe he has not received any endorsement from a sitting senator, either

 

[ArcadiaGP]

From Ben Shapiro

Should An Open Convention Stop Trump? Hell Yes. | Daily Wire

 

[Landon]

Did some more playing with RCP's delegate counter. Even conceding FL and OH to Trump, if Cruz can bridge the midwest/western states from TX to ID and east to Indiana (sacrificing Illinois to Trump), he can still stymie Trump's majority.

There's very little margin for error, though. And it isn't very pretty.

ETA:
If Indiana goes Trump in the trending ratio, then that would give him the majority - not at the time, but it would be the right number of delegates.

You got a link to the RCP delegate counter you speak of?

 

[T.Lex]

You got a link to the RCP delegate counter you speak of?

RealClearPolitics - RCP Republican Delegate Calculator

It is not intuitive. Once you enter the percentages, click on one of the state buttons to "enter" them. It'll sort out the delegates. If it doesn't work, look under the state buttons for a message that may or may not help figure out what the problem is. It also doesn't appear to have the most recent results baked in yet.

 

[BugI02]

I respect cynicism.

But, I also know that your use of GOPe, then, is WAY too broad. In effect, whenever I read your references to it, I will translate it to "elected Republican." Particularly given that you associate it with the Tea Party folks.

And, for full disclosure, part of what informs my opinion on GOPe is familiarity. At least at the state and local level, I know quite a few elected Republicans and people who work for them. In my mind, there is a GOPe, but there are also huge swaths of people in government who are GOP and not part of the GOPe. People who, if they become part of the GOPe, will work (and are working) to change it.

But, I also recognize that, from the outside, it may be hard to tell the difference.

Lex, when you see the lightning the GOPe and the Donor Class have called down on Trump, do you think any of those people you know in politics who would work to change the GOPe could not be made to toe the line - any line. Even at the contender level, an attack of the voltage level being used on Trump would shatter a Cruz or a Rubio or a Kasich. Could lesser lights withstand it any better? Even if they fail to stop Trump I believe their little demonstration of power will deter most others from crossing them

 

[ArcadiaGP]

ABC reporting and confirming that Jeb Bush to meet individually with Rubio, Cruz and Kasich today and tomorrow.

 

[T.Lex]

Lex, when you see the lightning the GOPe and the Donor Class have called down on Trump, do you think any of those people you know in politics who would work to change the GOPe could not be made to toe the line - any line. Even at the contender level, an attack of the voltage level being used on Trump would shatter a Cruz or a Rubio or a Kasich. Could lesser lights withstand it any better? Even if they fail to stop Trump I believe their little demonstration of power will deter most others from crossing them

That's part of why I'm concerned that this whole thing has been an exercise in metamorphosis. The GOP has been in a chrysalis for at least 2 presidential cycles, and the GWB 2nd cycle might've been the start of it.

We either have to change or die.

I feel like there has been a group - mostly GenXers - who have been trying to basically infiltrate the GOPe and spread new ideas. Kinda more libertarian, but mostly just conservative politically. Socially, probably moderate. A reflection of Mitch Daniels' "truce" on social issues.

Unfortunately, it may have come too late.

To put it briefly, the GOP must change from within. I do think it is possible. Well, I did before Trump won so convincingly.

 

[BugI02]

Popular? Just look at all the states he's won.

But seriously (a little), Trump is the most popular, and not exactly young. That youth thing was my own opinion of what the GOP needs, not an endorsement of any current candidate. I think Mitch Daniels is more connected with a youthful perspective, although not objectively young.

Rand Paul is only 53, Gen X

 

[Tombs]

ABC reporting and confirming that Jeb Bush to meet individually with Rubio, Cruz and Kasich today and tomorrow.

As comic relief? Yes.

As a serious candidate? Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

 

[T.Lex]

Rand Paul is only 53, Gen X

And I like his principles and policies. If he keeps building his network, I think he'll be a catalyst for moving the right (as in correct) direction.

 

[BugI02]

"Now, let us stop and smell the perversity. Left parties the world over were founded to advance the fortunes of working people. But our left party in America – one of our two monopoly parties – chose long ago to turn its back on these people’s concerns, making itself instead into the tribune of the enlightened professional class, a “creative class” that makes innovative things like derivative securities and smartphone apps. The working people that the party used to care about, Democrats figured, had nowhere else to go, in the famous Clinton-era expression. The party just didn’t need to listen to them any longer.


What Lewandowski and Nussbaum are saying, then, should be obvious to anyone who’s dipped a toe outside the prosperous enclaves on the two coasts. Ill-considered trade deals and generous bank bailouts and guaranteed profits for insurance companies but no recovery for average people, ever – these policies have taken their toll. As Trump says, “we have rebuilt China and yet our country is falling apart. Our infrastructure is falling apart … Our airports are, like, Third World.”


Trump’s words articulate the populist backlash against liberalism that has been building slowly for decades and may very well occupy the White House itself, whereupon the entire world will be required to take seriously its demented ideas.


Yet still we cannot bring ourselves to look the thing in the eyes. We cannot admit that we liberals bear some of the blame for its emergence, for the frustration of the working-class millions, for their blighted cities and their downward spiraling lives. So much easier to scold them for their twisted racist souls, to close our eyes to the obvious reality of which Trumpism is just a crude and ugly expression: that neoliberalism has well and truly failed."

Thomas Frank in The Guardian
Millions of ordinary Americans support Donald Trump. Here's why | Thomas Frank | Opinion | The Guardian

 

[chipbennett]

Maybe Ohio won't be as close/interesting as I thought.

Poll: Donald Trump widens lead over John Kasich in Ohio Republican primary | cleveland.com

The poll of likely Ohio Republican primary voters found Trump leading Kasich 38 percent to 32 percent. That's compared to Trump's 31 percent to 26 percent lead in the university's last poll, released on Feb. 23.


Compared to two weeks ago, the new survey shows Trump and Kasich more or less splitting voters as Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz lost ground. Rubio's support dropped from 13 percent to 9 percent, and Cruz's support dropped from 21 percent to 16 percent. The new poll also omits retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson who had polled at 5 percent in February, but who has since suspended his campaign.

 

[Route 45]

The only polls I even look at are based on poll accuracy provided by Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight. WSJ/NBC are actually rated high by them (A-).
FiveThirtyEight?s Pollster Ratings | FiveThirtyEight

Yeah, Nate missed it big time with the Michigan Democratic primary polls. Hillary Clinton was rated at 99% chance of winning. She lost.

What The Stunning Bernie Sanders Win In Michigan Means | FiveThirtyEight

Polls, schmolls. Something new is going on this year.

 

[miguel]

¡No we don't, ya dickhead!

 

[AmmoManAaron]

What do you guys think would happen if:
Cruz and Kasich cut a deal, with Kasich as VP. Cruz wins Ohio's delegates, Cruz wins the western states and most of the states as far east as Indiana, but Trump wins Illinois, FL, NY, and CA?

Cruz/Kasich could be a winning ticket nationally. Principled conservative leadership backed up by a pragmatist that appeals to the centrists. I'm thinking of it as a Reagan/Bush type of appeal.

 

[AmmoManAaron]

Nope! I'm still pleased he is out of the race and do NOT want to see him as a VP to anyone.