Stocks, Gold, Silver, and the printing press.

[Stschil]

Def keep up the good work smokingman.

Whats the current price of physical silver now?

You can follow Gold and Silver spot prices at KITCO.com

 

[ultraspec]

You can follow Gold and Silver spot prices at KITCO.com

Thanks Ill go check it now

 

[Brown]

Just bought another 1/2 dozen ASE from my supplier here in BBurg. I am seeing the same thing. Silver looks pretty good right now.

 

[teddy12b]

Here's another article you all may enjoy reading:

The World Will Run Out of Silver in Nine Years

Silver may be running out, as it is consumed and not just reshaped.

 

[rambone]

I have created my own new inflation index.
Lets call it the Campbell's soup index.
I did some research and went back quite a bit.I will post a monthly update if I remember from now on.
All prices are for campbells condensed tomato soup.

1950:10 cents
1960:15 cents
1970:17 cents
1980:21 cents
1990:33 cents
2007:39 cents
2008:40 cents
2009:45 cents
2010:51 cents
201111-28-2011)60 cents

How did you find that info? Can you source it?

 

[smokingman]

Def keep up the good work smokingman.

Whats the current price of physical silver now?

$32.31

The paper market is a joke though.I would not advise ever touching the paper market.We will see if the CFTC really does follow through with the new limits in January or if the head of the CFTC is replaced.

The S&P just put the whole EU on credit watch negative.What that means short term is the US dollar will gain.Markets,commodities,and everything under the sun go down as the dollar gains.This will be short lived.

The giant elephant in the room is the Federal Reserve note and our unsustainable deficits being propped up by the Federal Reserve printing.

In any view longer than a month I have a very negative view of of our currency.Inflation will be at best harsh.Currently we are at 3.6% "officially",the reality is probably closer to our 30 year average of 6-7%. Next year I fully expect the "official" number to be at least 5%,while they tell us there is no inflation,but from there it could get MUCH worse very quickly.

As always.Prep.Preserve what wealth you have.

12/5/2011

 

[smokingman]

How did you find that info? Can you source it?

I did not rely on one source.I used at least 3 sources per year if I could find them.Here are some of the sources.
1950′s Prices « Nostalgia and Now

Food Groceries and Toiletries in the 1950's prices 50 examples from The People History Site

The Consumer Price Index

The Food Timeline--historic food prices

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

I took the average of the sources I could find.I was rather shocked at the 70s data.It is probably a little rough,but close enough.

 

[smokingman]

You can follow Gold and Silver spot prices at KITCO.com

Live real time charts. Gold Price Chart - LIVE REAL TIME

 

[teddy12b]

I have a family member who as a part of his job must stay on top of what's happening with the raw materials the company he works for uses. He has a pretty big time job so I'm assuming that he's good at what he does. Last night we talked and he was saying that we should be looking for a dip into the $29 an oz. range late next week and then we'll be seeing silver run up until next march.

I'm waiting for that dip below $30 an ounce.

 

[smokingman]

Guest Post: Start Thinking in Terms of Gold Price | ZeroHedge

Start Thinking in Terms of Gold Price
A young woman – let's call her Andrea – inherited some money from her father in late 1997. She was only nineteen at the time. Not knowing the first thing about investing, she kept the money in stocks and bonds as her father had, wanting to hold on to it until she really needed it. She played it "safe."
She got married last year and so began to withdraw the money. She was pleased to see a chart from the broker that showed her portfolio was up about 20%. While admittedly not a great return over 12 years, her account had nevertheless survived both the 2000 tech crash and the 2008 market meltdown. She knew not all investors could not say the same thing.
Andrea began spending the money, thankful that she'd saved the money to start a family. But a cruel reality slowly began to set in: the money didn't seem to be going very far. She couldn't quite put her finger on why, but it all clicked when she saw the lofty price of a new SUV she wanted. She remembered her Dad's favorite vehicle back in the day – a Ford Ranger pickup – and recalled him boasting that he paid only $8,500 for it in 1992. A comparable vehicle today costs more than twice as much.
It hit her like a slap in the face. While the number of dollars in her portfolio was greater than what she inherited, they bought less stuff. It was such a revelation that she actually uttered the words out loud…
"My investments didn’t keep up with inflation… I LOST money!"
Gold Is the Benchmark
Whether they realize it or not, the same thing is happening to most people's investments. Over time, real returns are diluted because of inflation. The only reliable way to measure the value of investments is in terms of a financial intermediary that cannot be inflated: gold. That way, investors can tell how they're doing in real terms.
This has practical ramifications for all of us. Someday, we (or our heirs) are going to spend some of the wealth we are accumulating. How much we can actually buy with our gains will directly depend on how hard inflation has hit whatever our investments are denominated in. A 15% gain in dollars is only 9% in real terms if USD inflation was 6% during that time frame. A money-market return of 1% is a losing investment if denominated in something inflating at 3%. In Andrea's case, by keeping all her funds in dollars, her 20% gain turned into a 16% loss in purchasing power.


Rest at the source.

 

[teddy12b]

Guest Post: Start Thinking in Terms of Gold Price | ZeroHedge

Start Thinking in Terms of Gold Price
A young woman – let's call her Andrea – inherited some money from her father in late 1997. She was only nineteen at the time. Not knowing the first thing about investing, she kept the money in stocks and bonds as her father had, wanting to hold on to it until she really needed it. She played it "safe."
She got married last year and so began to withdraw the money. She was pleased to see a chart from the broker that showed her portfolio was up about 20%. While admittedly not a great return over 12 years, her account had nevertheless survived both the 2000 tech crash and the 2008 market meltdown. She knew not all investors could not say the same thing.
Andrea began spending the money, thankful that she'd saved the money to start a family. But a cruel reality slowly began to set in: the money didn't seem to be going very far. She couldn't quite put her finger on why, but it all clicked when she saw the lofty price of a new SUV she wanted. She remembered her Dad's favorite vehicle back in the day – a Ford Ranger pickup – and recalled him boasting that he paid only $8,500 for it in 1992. A comparable vehicle today costs more than twice as much.
It hit her like a slap in the face. While the number of dollars in her portfolio was greater than what she inherited, they bought less stuff. It was such a revelation that she actually uttered the words out loud…
"My investments didn’t keep up with inflation… I LOST money!"
Gold Is the Benchmark
Whether they realize it or not, the same thing is happening to most people's investments. Over time, real returns are diluted because of inflation. The only reliable way to measure the value of investments is in terms of a financial intermediary that cannot be inflated: gold. That way, investors can tell how they're doing in real terms.
This has practical ramifications for all of us. Someday, we (or our heirs) are going to spend some of the wealth we are accumulating. How much we can actually buy with our gains will directly depend on how hard inflation has hit whatever our investments are denominated in. A 15% gain in dollars is only 9% in real terms if USD inflation was 6% during that time frame. A money-market return of 1% is a losing investment if denominated in something inflating at 3%. In Andrea's case, by keeping all her funds in dollars, her 20% gain turned into a 16% loss in purchasing power.


Rest at the source.

Forecast of what's to come in January with QE3.

 

[EvilBlackGun]

Those who won't read ....

.... are no better off than those who CANNOT read. Re-format it yourself; it's good reading.

I am sure some intelligent things were said in the original post, but its lack of formatting plays with my eyes and I cant muster the effort to read it.

So, geniuses, what's a guy who is in the " .22 carbine, a 9mm pistol and a 12ga shot-gun" as his arsenal, to do in this current situation? IOW, Can you egg-heads suggest a plan for Joe The Plumber?

 

[smokingman]

.... are no better off than those who CANNOT read. Re-format it yourself; it's good reading.

So, geniuses, what's a guy who is in the " .22 carbine, a 9mm pistol and a 12ga shot-gun" as his arsenal, to do in this current situation? IOW, Can you egg-heads suggest a plan for Joe The Plumber?

Stock up on things you use daily.Things you know you will need to purchase anyway. Soap,TP,Shaving supplies,food,water(a way to purify and store it),tools,oil,and so on.Write down every single item you use on a normal basis.Include things like an oil change for your car.If there is never hyperinflation or a collapse you will still benefit.Stocking up on those things while they are on sale and buying in bulk will save you money,and inflation as monetary policy assures the prices will only increase over time.

Maintaining what you have will be important.Learning things like gardening and canning will be invaluable.

Our grand parents and great grand parents survived the great depression.Then 60+% of Americans lived in "rural" settings.Now it is the opposite with 60% living in urban areas.They also had the advantage of already knowing many of the skills they needed to survive.Most had a garden and knew how to preserve food,it was already a matter of survival before the depression.For most of us we need to learn these skills as we have become dependent on a just in time supply system that is very fragile(as the 70s oil crisis proved with shortages of various goods).

In short prep and think about ways to preserve your life style in an environment where your money is constantly losing purchasing power.

 

[smokingman]

News Headlines

Realtors: We Over counted Home Sales for Five Years


"All the sales and inventory data that have been reported since January 2007 are being downwardly revised. Sales were weaker than people thought," NAR spokesman Walter Malony told Reuters.

Rest at the source.

30 Year $13 Billion Reopening Prices At Record Low Yield, Highest Bid To Cover In 11 Years | ZeroHedge

As Negative Gold Lease Rates Collapse, The Gold Sell Off Is Likely Coming To An End | ZeroHedge

Jesse's Café Américain: The LIBOR-Gold Forwards Pain Index - Gold Lease Rates Plunged - More Than Meets the Eye

Gold Lease Rate Slides to Lowest on Record as European Banks Seek Dollars - Bloomberg

In short central bankers are leasing gold and silver at a loss,paying banks to take it to suppress the price.

Will not last much longer,they can not print physical.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...arclays-default-ratings-reduced-by-fitch.html
Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Barclays Plc (BARC) were among lenders who had their issuer default ratings cut by Fitch Ratings today.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-report-pd20111215-PKPQ7?OpenDocument&src=hp4
With the European debt crisis in focus, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has ordered Australian banks to conduct stress tests on their ability to withstand a sharp spike in unemployment, a collapse of property prices and a broader recession, according to a report by the Australian Financial Review.



http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2011/12/14/turbulent-treasuries/
The U.S. Treasury bond market may be in for a bit of a rollercoaster ride over the near term as each new day seems to bring another deluge of debt, with the government trying to clear out all it can before the holidays. The Treasury on Wednesday sold $13 billion of reopened 30-year bonds, and investors dove in to scoop up the debt even though yields are hovering near record lows. Wednesday’s sale was the third of seven debt sales over an eight-session period, in which the Treasury is expected to move a total of $177 billion of paper. The rush of paper could give Treasuries a shaking.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices extended gains on Wednesday, pushing 10-year yields further below 2%, after the government received strong demand for its longest-term bonds even at the lower yields on record.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-10-year-yields-fall-further-under-2-2011-12-14?dist=afterbell

Long-term issuer default ratings for Bank of America, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs were cut to A from A+, according to the statement. Barclays, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse were downgraded to A from AA-, while BNP Paribas (BNP) fell to A+ from AA-. Lower credit ratings can raise borrowing costs for banks and in some cases can force them to put up billions of dollars in collateral to cover derivative contracts. Standard & Poor’s cut long-term credit grades on Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup last month.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...arclays-default-ratings-reduced-by-fitch.html

 

[smokingman]

Alabama’s Jefferson County Declares Biggest Municipal Bankruptcy

Alabama’s Jefferson County Declares Biggest Municipal Bankruptcy - Businessweek


Did The Fed Quietly Bail Out A Bank On Tuesday?



Did The Fed Quietly Bail Out A Bank On Tuesday? | ZeroHedge






“You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand

 

[smokingman]

I have created my own new inflation index.
Lets call it the Campbell's soup index.
I did some research and went back quite a bit.I will post a monthly update if I remember from now on.
All prices are for campbells condensed tomato soup.

1950:10 cents
1960:15 cents
1970:17 cents
1980:21 cents
1990:33 cents
2007:39 cents
2008:40 cents
2009:45 cents
2010:51 cents
201111-28-2011)60 cents

January 1,2012
84 cents per can(walmart) 89 cents per can(Kroger).

On a side note.Stokely's corn at walmart on "sale" on the end cap(Franklin) $1.68 per can.

 

[smokingman]

2011 in review.
Stock unchanged(.06% on the DOW) from January 1,2011-January 1,2012.

Most commodities up.Energy the top performer.Up roughly 27%

QE1,1.5,QE2,operation twist,and a low rate at the discount window.Over 6 trillion pumped into the system and we end up where we started,with out actually fixing anything.

When I get some charts and solid figures I will update this thread.

 

[John Galt]

Don't forget that the US federal government, the most corrupt entity in the history of man, is fudging their numbers. I believe we are actually closer to the edge than most people think. Constant monthly "revisions" of relative economic numbers, not counting people that have dropped out of the workforce when calculating unemployment, manipulating the inflation index, letting the Fed run rampant (note the recent "discovery" of trillions of Fed dollars being handed out like crack). Social Security (The Great Ponzi) is going to be greatly underfunded again with the payroll tax "holiday" ("allowing" people to keep more of their own money is now a "holiday") and 10,000 Baby Boomers are retiring EACH DAY for the next 19 years (think SS and Medicare here) Interest rates are being kept artificially low, destroying savings and we are buying our own debt. Nobody is being investigated/prosecuted (it's been 3 years!) for their role in the sub-prime housing crime against humanity, where AAA ratings were applied to absolute criminal junk, costing God only knows how many trillions to bail out the banks. What is worse than that, those trillions printed and stolen from future generations have not made the system better. The TooBigToFail banks that received all of those trillions are even bigger, yet their stock prices are horrible (Bank of America is around $5 share) and getting worse. The government only temporarily propped up a corrupt system that will need even more support to "survive". When we hear that we have to raise the debt ceiling to "save the system", keep in mind the kind of system they want to save. Given the magnitude of our debt, future financial obligations, a meaningless debt ceiling (constant "emergency" revisions make it meaningless) and a privately-held Federal Reserve that is printing money, draw your own conclusions ......

God Bless America, we need Him now more than ever!

 

[teddy12b]

Don't forget that the US federal government, the most corrupt entity in the history of man, is fudging their numbers. I believe we are actually closer to the edge than most people think. Constant monthly "revisions" of relative economic numbers, not counting people that have dropped out of the workforce when calculating unemployment, manipulating the inflation index, letting the Fed run rampant (note the recent "discovery" of trillions of Fed dollars being handed out like crack). Social Security (The Great Ponzi) is going to be greatly underfunded again with the payroll tax "holiday" ("allowing" people to keep more of their own money is now a "holiday") and 10,000 Baby Boomers are retiring EACH DAY for the next 19 years (think SS and Medicare here) Interest rates are being kept artificially low, destroying savings and we are buying our own debt. Nobody is being investigated/prosecuted (it's been 3 years!) for their role in the sub-prime housing crime against humanity, where AAA ratings were applied to absolute criminal junk, costing God only knows how many trillions to bail out the banks. What is worse than that, those trillions printed and stolen from future generations have not made the system better. The TooBigToFail banks that received all of those trillions are even bigger, yet their stock prices are horrible (Bank of America is around $5 share) and getting worse. The government only temporarily propped up a corrupt system that will need even more support to "survive". When we hear that we have to raise the debt ceiling to "save the system", keep in mind the kind of system they want to save. Given the magnitude of our debt, future financial obligations, a meaningless debt ceiling (constant "emergency" revisions make it meaningless) and a privately-held Federal Reserve that is printing money, draw your own conclusions ......

God Bless America, we need Him now more than ever!

Well, all that is pretty depressing, but only because that's dead on accurate.

 

[smokingman]

Well JP Morgan reported a minor loss last week missing earnings and all estimates.
Citigroup not to be out done just released the following.

• Fourth Quarter Revenues of $17.2 Billion Down 7% from the Prior Year Period
• Fourth Quarter Net Credit Losses Declined 40% from the Prior Year Period to $4.1 Billion
• Full Year 2011 Net Income of $11.3 Billion up 6% from $10.6 Billion in 2010
• Full Year 2011 Revenues of $78.4 Billion Compared to $86.6 Billion in 2010 Driven by $6.4 Billion Decline in Citi Holdings Revenues
• Citicorp Loans of $465.4 Billion Grew 14% versus Prior Year
• Citi Holdings Loans of $181.8 Billion Declined 25% versus Prior Year
• Full Year 2011 Net Credit Losses of $20.0 Billion Compared to $30.9 Billion in 2010
• Loan Loss Reserve Release of $1.5 Billion in Fourth Quarter, Down 35% from the Prior Year Period
• Tier 1 Common of $115.1 Billion, Tier 1 Common Ratio Increased to 11.8%
• Year-over-Year, Book Value Per Share up 8% to $60.78, Tangible Book Value Per Share(2) up 12% to $49.81

absent a $1.5 billion in loan loss reserve releases, the bank would have reported negative net income, which was $1.364 billion pretax. Yet there is no way to explain the absolute bloodbath in the Securities and Banking group, which saw revenues implode by 53% from $6.7 billion to $3.2 billion Y/Y, and down 10% Q/Q. Notably, Lending revenues down 84% from $1 billion to $164 million. RIP Carry Trade.

Citigroup Misses Big On Top And Bottom Line: Earnings Negative Absent Loan Loss Release | ZeroHedge

Citigroup Profit Falls as Trading Revenue Slumps - Bloomberg

Trading declines mirrored results at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which said last week that revenue in every investment-banking business fell from a year earlier. Citigroup’s profit drop capped a year for Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit, 55, in which the shares slid 44 percent amid concern troubled European countries would default. Pandit said last month the bank would eliminate 4,500 workers at a pretax cost of $400 million.