Coronavirus II

[smokingman]

Then there's this.



https://thelibertarianrepublic.com/...o8TQNAeGrkBZBE-IiidzEJyO7wR6TEZMcByp4roubGUs0

When confronted with a problem, saying that someone should do something about the problem, that someone might be you.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

I think the people who come in and die within hours would be the people who just thought it was the flu and didn't go in until it was more advanced.

It's not apocalyptic, IMHO, but the part that makes it seem like it is, is that in some communities hospitals are overwhelmed. Conditions may not be overwhelming in Indy. Hopefully, they won't be. But it sounds like in some of the harder hit areas, they are. Denying that seems to be bias on the other side.

I don't think we should predispose ourselves for positive or negative news. We shouldn't make predictions and then become attached to them such that we won't accept information that tends to discount the prediction. I don't care, as far as what I'm willing to believe, if all the facts available are negative or positive. That attribute does not contribute to them being true or false. If all the knowable facts are doom and gloom, or peaches and roses, it is what it is. I think that's the best statement we can make about this is that it is what it is, regardless of what we'd like it to be.

If the glass contains 50% of capacity, it's not half full; it's not half empty. It contains 50% of capacity. It is what it is. We don't need to make value judgements about facts. They're just true and relevant or not.

What's bothered me of late is that you're either a doom-and-gloomer or you're a denier. There's apparently no room for the in-between. There's room for both here, in my opinion. This can be worse, much worse, than a typical flu bug while not necessarily so bad as having to choke off our economy until this thing dies out (because it won't).

 

[smokingman]

I think the people who come in and die within hours would be the people who just thought it was the flu and didn't go in until it was more advanced.

It's not apocalyptic, IMHO, but the part that makes it seem like it is, is that in some communities hospitals are overwhelmed. Conditions may not be overwhelming in Indy. Hopefully, they won't be. But it sounds like in some of the harder hit areas, they are. Denying that seems to be bias on the other side.

I don't think we should predispose ourselves for positive or negative news. We shouldn't make predictions and then become attached to them such that we won't accept information that tends to discount the prediction. I don't care, as far as what I'm willing to believe, if all the facts available are negative or positive. That attribute does not contribute to them being true or false. If all the knowable facts are doom and gloom, or peaches and roses, it is what it is. I think that's the best statement we can make about this is that it is what it is, regardless of what we'd like it to be.

If the glass contains 50% of capacity, it's not half full; it's not half empty. It contains 50% of capacity. It is what it is. We don't need to make value judgements about facts. They're just true and relevant or not.

I can not rep you. But I agree.

It is a glass with water in it. What is in the water(camp 3 shout out).

 

[Doug]

AFAIK, the only treatment for Coronavirus is to treat the symptoms; drink fluids, reduce fever, pain relievers, and oxygen for those who have trouble breathing.
I'm guessing some people either have underlying conditions or genetic predispositions to being unable to fight it off.
Underlying conditions might include high carbohydrate diet (rice in China and pasta in Italy).

 

[Snapdragon]

Dyson Designed and Built a Ventilator in 10 Days to Help Fight Coronavirus

But it costs $20,000

 

[jamil]

^^^ Exactly

Way to much doom and gloom. This study, that study, that study proves this study wrong, false data being reported, debunked data found, scientist lied, scientist didnot lie, we'ree all gonna die soon. ER packed to the hilt, local ER slow with much supply. Not enough testing, only test when screeningis positive, only test when medical treatment could change, percent of deaths not calculated right, more people are gonna die, the wave is coming, run for the hills. More studies from here, and there, and far all different. Which model are you following, which is correct, which one is data based - evidence based. How can that be, china lied, Spain passes Italy but records differently, data is flawed.

I can go on and on. And people get angry when Trump feels good about the potential treatment drug for this virus. Data collected to date (very little) does not deny that possibility; YET....in spite of all the bogus reports and posting, people refuse to hold on to something that may be positive.

It's like some people thrive on the doom and gloom.

Here's another positive. It is being reported that more people are coming to know Christ in this difficult time. More churches have been forced to seek out technological means to reach people and it is working. This crisis is actually growing the Kingdom of God! All glory to Him.

I have decreased my time in this thread because of the never ending posting of negative posts that link to all kinds of reports that in some cases contradict other reports.
You know the author of confusion? Deception? Can anyone actually look at this entire thread and go away feeling good?

I think you're wrong about that. Like I've been saying it is what it is regardless of what any of us wants it to be. There's a lot of conflicting information going on and it's hard to sift through it all to figure out what's real and what isn't. What I think I know, is that it's not nothing. It's not just the flu. It does seem to have a profound impact on the medical infrastructure in some communities. It's not Armageddon either. Somewhere around 80% of the cases are mild.

The real problem appears to be capacity of healthcare infrastructure. In the places where it's been really bad, like China, and Italy, they haven't had the capacity to treat all the people in serious or critical condition, and so they have to triage, and then let some people go untreated, and many of those die. And that's why they've been trying the "flatten the curve" approach here. To keep the capacity from being overburdened.

I don't believe I've said anything here that is incorrect given the information available now. It is what it is. And it's also possible that people refuse to believe something that may be negative. As I've been saying, whether it's positive or negative shouldn't enter the process for deciding what to believe.

 

[nonobaddog]

If the glass contains 50% of capacity, it's not half full; it's not half empty. It contains 50% of capacity. It is what it is. We don't need to make value judgements about facts. They're just true and relevant or not.

That glass is obviously over-spec'ed and over-built. That is a capital offense in china.

 

[nonobaddog]

101-year-old Italian man released from hospital after recovering from coronavirus
We need to take this guy and the 90 year old great-great grandmother apart and see what they're made of.

Yes, they must be probed.

 

[HoughMade]

I think the people who come in and die within hours would be the people who just thought it was the flu and didn't go in until it was more advanced.

It's not apocalyptic, IMHO, but the part that makes it seem like it is, is that in some communities hospitals are overwhelmed. Conditions may not be overwhelming in Indy. Hopefully, they won't be. But it sounds like in some of the harder hit areas, they are. Denying that seems to be bias on the other side.

I don't think we should predispose ourselves for positive or negative news. We shouldn't make predictions and then become attached to them such that we won't accept information that tends to discount the prediction. I don't care, as far as what I'm willing to believe, if all the facts available are negative or positive. That attribute does not contribute to them being true or false. If all the knowable facts are doom and gloom, or peaches and roses, it is what it is. I think that's the best statement we can make about this is that it is what it is, regardless of what we'd like it to be.

If the glass contains 50% of capacity, it's not half full; it's not half empty. It contains 50% of capacity. It is what it is. We don't need to make value judgements about facts. They're just true and relevant or not.

Just some thoughts.

-There is no incentive for the media to downplay the severity of this disease and every incentive to (assuming proper motives) report it as severe as it "actually" is in order to reinforce the need to follow the guidelines. Not assuming proper motive, horror stories get more eyes.

-There are those who take half-truth and rumors are report them as a first-hand account and can be quite believable. They even may think they are doing the right thing to try to motivate following the guidelines.

-Some people will report one thing they have seen and be so overwhelmed and panicky that they will present it as a common occurrence. See above.

-Some people are narcissists, more eyes on them.

-Some people will flat out lie "for the greater good". Some will flat-out lie because they are narcissists.

....and this is why I don't believe things I see on social media about this which are not reported in legitimate media...and I mean first-hand accounts, not reporting on what is on social media, which is a horrible practice.

I don't have a position or bias about how "bad" this is. I want good information. If it is well sourced and verified, I will have a tendency to believe it. If it seems outlandish and just tickles my "BS" antenna, which frequently happens with things that are only on social media, I won't.

 

[jamil]

Smokingman and I are yin and yang on that.

I'm waiting for yesterday's INGO-official numbers, but it looks like there will be support for an inference that the death curve is flattening. That is, the increase in deaths is not as steep as it had been; we are coming in under the average increase. Still a new record high potentially, but not by a 1.5x kind of number. The doubling might be shifting from 2-3 days to 3-4 days (hopefully on its way to longer periods).

Now, a couple caveats to that:
- We are always 1 day away from a reporting spike as the different jurisdictions formalize reporting. Italy has had spikes that throw off any sense of getting control. I'm just going by the reported numbers.
- It is worth reminding people that "flattening the curve" does not necessarily mean "fewer dead people." The goal is to spare the medical system from being overwhelmed. There's an assumption that fewer people die, but that is no guarantee. You can have 100k people die in a week, or 100k people die in a month. You still have 100k dead people, but the latter scenario is less of a strain on the infrastructure.

Color me cautiously optimistic, but still cynical that we're getting real numbers.

I'll disagree with that a little. I think it's more accurate to say "flattening the curve" does not necessarily mean "fewer people that get Covid." Italy and Iran has shown us that not getting the appropriate medical treatment for the serious cases makes the death rate much higher. In Iran, they just didn't know what the **** they were doing, and weren't anywhere near prepared, and there's just no flattening that curve.

In Italy though, they didn't implement "curve flattening" soon enough, and they overtaxed their capacity. And a lot of people died because they couldn't get the treatment they needed to stay alive long enough to beat it. Same thing happened in China. If the curve is indeed flattening, and we can keep spreading out the impact of people who will become infected, then I think the death rate will be much lower, because more people can receive the treatment they need.

 

[smokingman]

I think you're wrong about that. Like I've been saying it is what it is regardless of what any of us wants it to be. There's a lot of conflicting information going on and it's hard to sift through it all to figure out what's real and what isn't. What I think I know, is that it's not nothing. It's not just the flu. It does seem to have a profound impact on the medical infrastructure in some communities. It's not Armageddon either. Somewhere around 80% of the cases are mild.

The real problem appears to be capacity of healthcare infrastructure. In the places where it's been really bad, like China, and Italy, they haven't had the capacity to treat all the people in serious or critical condition, and so they have to triage, and then let some people go untreated, and many of those die. And that's why they've been trying the "flatten the curve" approach here. To keep the capacity from being overburdened.

I don't believe I've said anything here that is incorrect given the information available now. It is what it is. And it's also possible that people refuse to believe something that may be negative. As I've been saying, whether it's positive or negative shouldn't enter the process for deciding what to believe.

The sad part. We have less hospital beds and less ICU capacity per 1000 people than Italy at 3.4 per 1000.
Comparing us to Germany it is much worse. They have 8.3 beds per 1000.
USA has less than 2.9(2013,and we have actually lost beds since then).
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/sh.med.beds.zs?most_recent_value_desc=true

It may also explain how south Korea is doing so well with 13.2 per 1000.

 

[HoughMade]

Neither are static numbers.

 

[Snapdragon]

Good info here from (IMO) a trusted source.

[video=youtube_share;8A3jiM2FNR8]https://youtu.be/8A3jiM2FNR8[/video]

 

[ArcadiaGP]

 

[nonobaddog]

Get mail out of box with tongs. Sort with tongs and dispose of spam and lay out keepable while spraying with alcohol. Hang tongs back on hook by trash can.

Update - I tried dedicated gloves and that is not so hot. Can't pull the second glove on without contaminating the cuff and probably me. I even tried hockey gloves since you can put them on by just sliding your hands in but they hamper your dexterity too much.

Your tongs method is far superior. I sort the mail in the garage and throw 95% of it in the trash and store any keepers for several days on a shelf.

They should really stop all the trash mail for the duration of this pandemic or better yet forever.

 

[T.Lex]

I'll disagree with that a little. I think it's more accurate to say "flattening the curve" does not necessarily mean "fewer people that get Covid." Italy and Iran has shown us that not getting the appropriate medical treatment for the serious cases makes the death rate much higher. In Iran, they just didn't know what the **** they were doing, and weren't anywhere near prepared, and there's just no flattening that curve.

In Italy though, they didn't implement "curve flattening" soon enough, and they overtaxed their capacity. And a lot of people died because they couldn't get the treatment they needed to stay alive long enough to beat it. Same thing happened in China. If the curve is indeed flattening, and we can keep spreading out the impact of people who will become infected, then I think the death rate will be much lower, because more people can receive the treatment they need.

This is just me reflexively disagreeing with you. (NO peach schnapps for YOU!)

I think it is more complicated than that.

First let's agree that there's deathRatePerceived and deathRateActual (this is a test to see if JettaKnight is still reading). We don't know the deathRateActual in China, Italy, or here.

So, we're stuck with deathRatePerceived. That can be stilted by many things, including the prioritization of testing. In Italy, I suspect they are doing the most testing on the people who are sick, and REALLY sick. I don't know. I haven't read up on that. But, it makes sense from both practical and policy standpoints. So, their deathRatePerceived is so high because they are testing the people most likely to die - mostly those who are already sick.

In a way, we are both right. Eventually, most (all?) of the population of the US will be exposed to this. Flattening the curve doesn't change that at all, to your point. I stand by my point, though, that we may end up with the same number of COVID-19 related deaths as we would've if we've done nothing. I don't think that is likely, but it is possible.

I think that's kinda smokingman's point, too. There could still be a BIG number of deaths.

 

[nonobaddog]

If the people and the economy could stand it, we could isolate until there is a vaccine of a very effective treatment. So flattening could save lives if it extends the curve to that point.

 

[Denny347]

But I'm curious as to what makes this information so unbelievable? Just because it was posted on Facebook and some people are Facebook snobs?

I find it hard to believe that these hospitals are maxed out and one of Indy's busiest hospitals is super quiet, waiting for this to ramp up. I guess it's possible but not likely.

 

[HoughMade]

Good info here from (IMO) a trusted source.

[video=youtube_share;8A3jiM2FNR8]https://youtu.be/8A3jiM2FNR8[/video]

That's a really good interview.

Thanks for posting.

 

[Alpo]

I heard a few minutes ago that a friend of my wife passed in Rhode Island. Showed some of the signs of Covid, but not all. Was told to return home. Died within 24 hours. Age: 73. Female. Generally good health.