Coronavirus II

[nonobaddog]

Looking at deaths, Indiana might even be hitting the plateau.

I would even say past the plateau and past the peak. The deaths for the last two days are the lowest since March 20th.

 

[T.Lex]

Hey doc- while you're here, can you offer an explanation why the mortality rate is climbing steadily?

We're testing more people, and getting more positives, but that does not appear to be increasing the percentage of hospitalizations. But, the people that are hospitalized (ostensibly from the virus) are dying more often than previously. But, this doesn't appear to be related to testing more people in hospitals, because most of the people getting tested do not appear to be in hospitals.

The virus should have a X value lethality (absent some mutation). That value should be consistent overall, even if it does hit certain demographics harder.

 

[nonobaddog]

That's correct. Until we started to get numbers back that were post-shutdown, there was no way to know what effect that would have. With more information comes better estimates.

Exactly - however this concept seems unusually difficult to grasp.

 

[T.Lex]

I would even say past the plateau and past the peak. The deaths for the last two days are the lowest since March 20th.

The only reason I'm reluctant to agree with that is because the ISDH has been known to "update" numbers somewhat significantly. Those (current) "last two days" are subject to change.

 

[CountryBoy1981]

I think in Seattle and New Orleans, it was/is close. But certainly not every metropolitan area was hit like NYC.

The million dollar (or should I say trillions of dollars) question is was this due to the stay at home orders being issued so that people did not spread it as fast or does this have to do with population density or the virus not being as deadly or contagious as predicted?

 

[BigRed]

It's beginning to look like the monster is just state making a shadow on the wall.

Now comes the real damage.

 

[T.Lex]

The million dollar (or should I say trillions of dollars) question is was this due to the stay at home orders being issued so that people did not spread it as fast or does this have to do with population density or the virus not being as deadly or contagious as predicted?

Well, I personally look at 3/13 as a kind of waypoint. Before that we weren't doing very much at all. After that, we did a whole lot.

The "run" of the virus is about 2 weeks. That is, from the time you got it to the time the case is resolved (recovery or otherwise) is about that. So, there's a lag. If someone was infected on 3/13, we won't actually know how to count that until about 3/27. So, if 3/13 is waypoint 1, then waypoint 2 would be 3/27.

I don't really think it is much of a coincidence that it was on 3/28 that (again, this is just my own unfrozen caveman observation) the exponential growth shifted to more linear. There were still spikes and "bad days." But, by 3/31, the daily deaths had kinda reached softer incline that looked much like a plateau.

That's at least circumstantial evidence that our social changes positively impacted the growth rate. Err... negatively impacted? Improved the situation.

I've seen no evidence that it is not as contagious as was predicted. In fact, there's some evidence that it is more contagious in the sense that many people who carry it can be asymptomatic. And in terms of being deadly, the mortality rate continues to climb. That could be due to several factors though.

 

[printcraft]

Nurse my nurse sister knows had a family member die...

Her pacemaker implant surgery for arrthyhmia was put on hold because of the covid priority.

 

[BigRed]

Nurse my nurse sister knows had a family member die...

Her pacemaker implant surgery for arrthyhmia was put on hold because of the covid priority.

Another "covid related" death.

 

[hoosierdoc]

Nurse my nurse sister knows had a family member die...

Her pacemaker implant surgery for arrthyhmia was put on hold because of the covid priority.

are you saying covid led to her death? this is so sad. a TON of this happening right now, or at least the seed being planted for it

if the only thing that matters is saving a life than we would still be part of England

 

[printcraft]

are you saying covid led to her death? this is so sad. a TON of this happening right now, or at least the seed being planted for it

Yes, she was not covid infected.
Just not a priority surgery. They "thought" she had time.

 

[Snapdragon]

Yes, she was not covid infected.
Just not a priority surgery. They "thought" she had time.

I don't understand which COVID-related surgeries would take precedence?

 

[drillsgt]

Again, 2009 H1N1 and regular, seasonal flu result in about 300K hospitalizations. COVID19 is at 15,000.

And I don't recall any narrative during H1N1, much less, annually during seasonal flu season, about our healthcare system capacity being overwhelmed. (In other words, there's no reason to believe that even 300K is the upper bound of healthcare system capacity.)

There was no narrative then, the Obama friendly media made sure of that.

 

[jamil]

I think there's a good chance I've already had it. My wife thinks the same thing about herself and our girls.

On a regular basis, I travel literally coast to coast. In the weeks leading up to the forced shutdowns, my travel included: San Francisco, Washington state (Spokane, including SEA airport), and Washington, DC (including LGA airport). There is a very high likelihood that I was exposed to a carrier during that period. Though, we suspect that it actually made its way through central Indiana a couple months earlier, and that we were among the mild/asymptomatic.

Obviously, pure speculation.

I go back on the road next week. I'm helping coordinate a team of more than 20 people to help a CMO site in Cleveland manufacture Remdesivir. Nearly everyone is driving (including from Texas and New Mexico). I've coordinated a hotel to provide us a dedicated floor, so that we can minimize contact/exposure, both to, and from, our group. The project is expected to be 10 weeks long, and we are planning for the possibility/likelihood that we will not have interim travel home for the duration. (Typically, at most we work 10-4 rotations with home travel every 2 weeks.)

So, yeah, for the most part, I'll be out doing my job, mostly like normal, but with some precautions. I will take those precautions (and not seeing my family for 10 weeks is a precaution, though I view it more as a sacrifice), but I choose not to fear a virus, or fear catching it. Living in such fear is absolutely no way to live life.

Around the end of 2019 my son got some kind weird illness where his only symptoms were coughing and occasionally a mild fever. Lasted maybe a month. Maybe a couple of weeks latermy wife came down with the same symptoms. Days later I had something that was really mild, but not a lot of coughing or fever, but definitely was something. He works for a delivery service and handles packages from around the world. He thought maybe he had pertussis. But I've been suspicious that he and my wife, at least, might have had it. Neither of them had any of the other symptoms you normally get with pertussis. But, it could have been some other virus infection that they had. I'm not sure what I had. But, I think it's possible that we all might have had it already. Would sure be nice to know for certain so I wouldn't have to worry about where I go.

 

[chipbennett]

you are thinking nationally with those numbers. this is a regional problem. NYV absoljtrky overwhelmed and short of ICU beds. 98% of rest of the country is absolutely fine with bored medical staff and low census hospitals

(And responding to T. Lex, too)

You and I are in agreement here, I think. Two thoughts:

1. The public policy arguments to shut down the economy were based on national numbers, not regional. Thus, it is appropriate to respond in terms of national healthcare system capacity.

2. To say that this is even a regional problem, instead of isolated based on areas of mass population density (possibly combined with overall health status of that population) is analogous to saying that firearm-related murders is a regional problem, when in reality 50% of all firearm-related murders happen in 2% of counties.

 

[T.Lex]

(And responding to T. Lex, too)

You and I are in agreement here, I think. Two thoughts:

1. The public policy arguments to shut down the economy were based on national numbers, not regional. Thus, it is appropriate to respond in terms of national healthcare system capacity.

2. To say that this is even a regional problem, instead of isolated based on areas of mass population density (possibly combined with overall health status of that population) is analogous to saying that firearm-related murders is a regional problem, when in reality 50% of all firearm-related murders happen in 2% of counties.

And this is another place we probably bend toward common ground - this pandemic here in the US would be (and would have been) best responded to at a local level. And, I think for the most part, that's been done - at least as between the feds and the states.

Things like the NCAA tournament, which is both a national event (people from all over the country) and a private event, were best left to the organizers with... let's say... compelling arguments delivered by medical authorities.

The feds should support hard-hit areas, just like any other natural disaster.

 

[chipbennett]

Another "covid related" death.

By Shannon Watts methodology, absolutely.

 

[printcraft]

I don't understand which COVID-related surgeries would take precedence?

"elective" surgeries are being pushed back to make room for covid patients etc, it's happening all over.

The surgery would have saved her life. She was told she had to wait because of the current panic guidelines.

 

[chipbennett]

And this is another place we probably bend toward common ground - this pandemic here in the US would be (and would have been) best responded to at a local level. And, I think for the most part, that's been done - at least as between the feds and the states.

Things like the NCAA tournament, which is both a national event (people from all over the country) and a private event, were best left to the organizers with... let's say... compelling arguments delivered by medical authorities.

The feds should support hard-hit areas, just like any other natural disaster.

There is some appropriate middle ground with respect to public policy decisions. There is a difference between, say, shutting down mass sports gatherings (major league sports, NCAA, etc.) nationally, while making local (especially, SMB) business decisions at the local level.

 

[T.Lex]

There is some appropriate middle ground with respect to public policy decisions. There is a difference between, say, shutting down mass sports gatherings (major league sports, NCAA, etc.) nationally, while making local (especially, SMB) business decisions at the local level.

Yeah, that brings up another permutation to this.

I am very familiar with one local business that absolutely relies on foot traffic. For the safety of guests and staff, they were on the forefront of observably cleaning stuff and then shut down before the governor's order. Based purely on the scientific reports of what was happening.

It seems like there was alot of that going on, in that some businesses (can't tell you how many, but a non-zero percentage) were going to shift to WFH or remote work regardless of any .gov actions.

Some of that would've happened, but it is impossible to know if it would've been enough.