Someone above said: well, multiply the number by 12. That isn't how exponential curves work.
I am not likely to die if you have malaria, drink a bourbon sitting next to me, etc. etc.
And I don't know how likely it is that the best estimates to date are any better than a delphi approach. We need time and more data. How much time? April. We ought to be much more informed in a month.
If it has peaked, or a drug becomes available that works, great. If not, we'll have to decide what risks to take. Unfortunately, a good portion of the work force is 55 and over. If they decide not to go back to work, I'm not how we turn the curve upward on the economy.
I am not likely to die if you have malaria, drink a bourbon sitting next to me, etc. etc.
And I don't know how likely it is that the best estimates to date are any better than a delphi approach. We need time and more data. How much time? April. We ought to be much more informed in a month.
If it has peaked, or a drug becomes available that works, great. If not, we'll have to decide what risks to take. Unfortunately, a good portion of the work force is 55 and over. If they decide not to go back to work, I'm not how we turn the curve upward on the economy.