Coronavirus II

[Alpo]

In the words of Ronnie RayGuns:

Trust, but verify.

The information we get today is no more reliable than the information pre-internet. There is just more of it. Underneath it all, someone, somewhere might have the truth. With search engines, some wannabe historian will find that nugget of clarity....but generally, months AFTER the fact, and say "See, I told you."

There were early signs that this might be a significant world-wide event from a lot of sources. And some of those sources were right on. But, even those sources put out a lot of **** at the same time they put out good info. No one has been perfect. A similar crisis and warning existed in 2008. I remember thinking that the Bay Area might possibly end up like the slums of Rio de Janeiro and cautioned friends in that area to prep. I was wrong, and I'm certainly glad I was.

In the end, the words don't mean as much as the data. We know that most of what we read isn't correct....even when coming from our side of the fence. The data? It is under-reported, over-reported, misrepresented, etc. But, the numbers at least provide a basis upon which to develop an action plan.

 

[jedi]

Yeah, well I know what that means.

REPORTED!!!

Just ignore him.

Is there information about miniature horses? This may be my chance.

I'm not sure about horses.
I've seen the articles about that dog and a cat (location unknown) plus a possible 2nd dog in china but that report fell off the radar.

 

[HoughMade]

I'm going to need more cover than a couple of stray reports from overseas.

 

[ghuns]

...plus a possible 2nd dog in china but that report fell off the radar.

Somebody got hungry?

 

[tbhausen]

Cuomo is pretty much handling this in a no bull**** way. Now is not the time for bull****.

 

[T.Lex]

Cuomo is pretty much handling this in a no bull**** way. Now is not the time for bull****.

Yeah, but when you say that, I think people here are going to agree with more than when I say it.

 

[nonobaddog]

Don't forget about the thousands of ventilators that were discovered in a cuomo warehouse... just sitting there. Before he begged for 30,000 more from the gubmint.
Either he knew they were there and he is an butt or he didn't know they were there and he is an incompetent butt.

 

[tbhausen]

We know these people rely on their staff members. Can’t expect him to know where everything is. Pretty hard to argue with the guy who’s right at the very center of this **** storm right now. He’s in a really, really bad spot… I’m willing to cut him a bit of slack right now.

 

[jedi]

I'm going to need more cover than a couple of stray reports from overseas.

I'm not sure if experts are testing/looking at this right now.
I dont own pets or livestock so it's not a concern for me.
So long as pigs and cows are good to eat I am a happy camper.

 

[HoughMade]

Don't forget about the thousands of ventilators that were discovered in a cuomo warehouse... just sitting there. Before he begged for 30,000 more from the gubmint.
Either he knew they were there and he is an butt or he didn't know they were there and he is an incompetent butt.

Well, I'm going to grant a little leeway that the Governor himself is probably not out counting ventilators or checking the inventories down at the warehouse.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

 

[jedi]

So the blue is the infected and it's looking just like any other exponential graph. How come the deaths in orange are not matching it? Do we have enough vents to keep it in check? Medical procedure figured out? Lack of reporting? Or just has not hit us yet?

 

[Alpo]

Well, I'm going to grant a little leeway that the Governor himself is probably not out counting ventilators or checking the inventories down at the warehouse.

They found them right next to the Ark.

 

[maxwelhse]

They found them right next to the Ark.

I'm still amazed that virtually all of that warehouse is a mat painting.

Maybe that was Cuomo's problem too?

 

[Dead Duck]

We know these people rely on their staff members. Can’t expect him to know where everything is. Pretty hard to argue with the guy who’s right at the very center of this **** storm right now. He’s in a really, really bad spot… I’m willing to cut him a bit of slack right now.

I wouldn't give that guy slacks if he was butt naked in church for his own wedding.


It seemed like he was trying to spite the president by keeping the schools open for so long. What was that all about?
Not saving lives...

 

[Kdf101]

I’m not a fan of the NY governor at all, but I think he is doing okay. I think Trump is doing okay too, I often wish he would tone down the rhetoric and sometimes bombastic and ego centric statements, but all in all not bad.

 

[Alpo]

There is a guy suggesting bbq'd bacon-wrapped duck breast in another thread.

It's beginning to sound more appetizing.

 

[KittySlayer]

So the blue is the infected and it's looking just like any other exponential graph. How come the deaths in orange are not matching it? Do we have enough vents to keep it in check? Medical procedure figured out? Lack of reporting? Or just has not hit us yet?

Because all of the Orange deaths were diagnosed and listed.

The Blue infected line simply does not represent all infections in a timely manner. It only represents those infections tested and diagnosed on the day the patient showed up. So if the Blue line included all infections it would not look so exponential. Start adding in those who could not get a test, those who chose not to get a test, those who thought it was the regular flu and did not get a test. Then shift some of the later official diagnoses back a few days for those who had it for a while and did not get tested on the first day but stacked up in line later.

After the 2016 Election debacle and the manipulation and bad reporting data of this there should be a lot of Statistics Professors at colleges being fired, in addition to a lot of statistics graduates that just don't get it. They can stand in the unemployment lines with the Journalist Professors and Journalist that can't seem to report facts.

 

[Pamcake]

COVID-19 US state-by-state projections: Peak use of Care levels in Hospitals.

The charts below show projected hospital resource use based on COVID-19 deaths.

The projections assume the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures.

COVID-19
You can toggle the graphs for "America" or "Indiana" or any state you desire; Click on the Green "Interact with the data visualization" button below this graph's explanation.
You can also run the projections based on how much "social distancing" is accomplished.

 

[T.Lex]

So the blue is the infected and it's looking just like any other exponential graph. How come the deaths in orange are not matching it? Do we have enough vents to keep it in check? Medical procedure figured out? Lack of reporting? Or just has not hit us yet?

I'd say, in order, it hasn't hit us very hard yet and we have plenty of medical capacity right now (doc can attest to that). Even at 35 dead/1786 diagnosed, we're still tracking the national mortality rate (a bit under 2%). So, that's consistent.

There is some lack of reporting, but it feels like it is the same a what we're suffering from nationally. SSDD about only being able to use the numbers they give us.

Another way to look at it, in a way that makes sense, is to see the interval between when the numbers double. On 3/23, 7 deaths, ~250 diagnosed. By 2/25, 14 deaths and just shy of 500 diagnosed. So, it roughly doubled in the same interval.

On 3/24, 12 dead/365 diagnosed. That doubled on 3/27 with 24 dead, but diagnosed were all the way up to 981 because of testing.

Nationally, we're doubling roughly every 3 days. Indiana isn't as consistent (because smaller numbers mean bigger jumps), but within that same range.