I also meant to tell you guys....I was gum bumping with a salesman yesterday while waiting for paperwork. He told me that they are buying used cars as quick as they can, whether you trade or just sell. Keep in mind this was a Hyundai dealer......but he said they have 1000's of new cars allotted to them when they get chips. He told me he thought we would see some killer deals on vehicles this winter or next Spring.
Last week Chevy commercial salesman called me because he had a 3500HD coming in he thought I may want.....it was a white custom...and I passed. He told me he had over 100 2021 Chevy 2500HD's allotted to his dealership that will deliver when chips arrive, he wouldn't tell me exact number but said well over 100 and way less than 1000. Now you think if every dealer has this many allotted.....I think we are gonna get some deals on 2021 HD trucks this winter or early Spring, or whenever chip crisis subsides. But are people gonna be waiting??
You think about it and the 2022's are already being ordered now, with production to begin soon and them due on lots in October (if they get chips). SO not only will the dealers be inundated with 2021 HD's.......they will have all the 2022's rolling off the line. There should be a huge supply over demand issue. The market never let's things get out of whack, it always corrects with supply and demand equalization. I think we will see some huge deals to get this inventory off the lots and cash in the manufactures hand. Gonna be big buyer incentives as well as dealer incentives to get them sold.
Plywood and building lumber should do the same thing, but probably much later and slower. I heard the largest producer of OSB and framing materials is increasing production 300% to meet demand.......when that supply hits the market, we should see lumber prices pull back, because at some point supply will beat demand and price will adjust. A lot of the building material increases were just a perfect storm aligning. Lumber tariffs, beetles, production plant switches from the North to new mills in the South, glue shortage, new home demand, low interest rates....it will work itself out with time. I bet in 2023, lumber prices will be same or cheaper than they were in 2019. Now we must remember, the employees will be making more $ per hour......so that may effect pricing some.
Anyhow......sorry to ramble with my "predictions". Just thought I would pass along my feelings on what truck prices may do later on after listening to these salesmen. You guys have any thoughts on this?
Last week Chevy commercial salesman called me because he had a 3500HD coming in he thought I may want.....it was a white custom...and I passed. He told me he had over 100 2021 Chevy 2500HD's allotted to his dealership that will deliver when chips arrive, he wouldn't tell me exact number but said well over 100 and way less than 1000. Now you think if every dealer has this many allotted.....I think we are gonna get some deals on 2021 HD trucks this winter or early Spring, or whenever chip crisis subsides. But are people gonna be waiting??
You think about it and the 2022's are already being ordered now, with production to begin soon and them due on lots in October (if they get chips). SO not only will the dealers be inundated with 2021 HD's.......they will have all the 2022's rolling off the line. There should be a huge supply over demand issue. The market never let's things get out of whack, it always corrects with supply and demand equalization. I think we will see some huge deals to get this inventory off the lots and cash in the manufactures hand. Gonna be big buyer incentives as well as dealer incentives to get them sold.
Plywood and building lumber should do the same thing, but probably much later and slower. I heard the largest producer of OSB and framing materials is increasing production 300% to meet demand.......when that supply hits the market, we should see lumber prices pull back, because at some point supply will beat demand and price will adjust. A lot of the building material increases were just a perfect storm aligning. Lumber tariffs, beetles, production plant switches from the North to new mills in the South, glue shortage, new home demand, low interest rates....it will work itself out with time. I bet in 2023, lumber prices will be same or cheaper than they were in 2019. Now we must remember, the employees will be making more $ per hour......so that may effect pricing some.
Anyhow......sorry to ramble with my "predictions". Just thought I would pass along my feelings on what truck prices may do later on after listening to these salesmen. You guys have any thoughts on this?
