Beer Virus V

[dusty88]

Please consider donating to the Frontline Families Fund. This is to provide financial support to families of healthcare workers who died of Covid 19

https://www.givemn.org/story/Frontlinefamiliesfund

 

[drillsgt]

Nothing to do with % of anything else

This is not infection fatality rate

1 in 1000 of their total population dead of one disease within a few months: a disease that has been controlled to near zero in several countries.

It has everything to do with the infection fatality rate lol

 

[nonobaddog]

I think the Infection Fatality Rate (or Case Fatality Rate) is when you compare the death total to the number of positive infections or cases while
the Death Rate (or Mortality Rate) is when you compare the death total to the total population.

Of course the Infection Fatality Rate is going to be higher since it is using a sub-category of the population. The two terms would be equivalent in the situation where every member of the population was infected.

 

[Hkindiana]

I read in one source that if you have gotten together with more than five family members, you should consider yourself infected , and go get a test. Another source said that if you travelled AT ALL over Thanksgiving, you should consider yourself infected, and go get a test. Who is paying for all of these tests, and for what purpose are they really being given?

 

[drillsgt]

I think the Infection Fatality Rate (or Case Fatality Rate) is when you compare the death total to the number of positive infections or cases while
the Death Rate (or Mortality Rate) is when you compare the death total to the total population.

Of course the Infection Fatality Rate is going to be higher since it is using a sub-category of the population. The two terms would be equivalent in the situation where every member of the population was infected.

I'm not sure what your point is but you are correct, I was just using Dusty's language as I knew what he meant and wasn't trying to sharp shoot anyone. The CFR is looking at deaths compared to known cases, not necessarily the same thing as the infection fatality rate which is what we really want, while the crude mortality rate looks at deaths compared to the overall population. Just looking at the CFR, SD (1.18) is faring better than militant places like MI (2.47) or NY (5.23) to name a few. Looking at the crude mortality rate SD is .001 while MI is .001 and NY is .002 (105, 95, and 176 respectively X 100,000 population). Of course these numbers are fluid.

 

[nonobaddog]

And now for something completely different...

[video=youtube;mynHaZ92E7s]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mynHaZ92E7s[/video]

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, while I'm always a fan of cautious optimism, I am concerned that the "good" numbers are more a product of the reporting processes being suspended because those personnel responsible for that particular chain were on vacation. Let's face it, those responsible for reporting are typically not on the front line, but more administrative. So they get to use their vacation days.

I'll certainly be watching to see the lagging numbers get caught up.

Again, I'm with you and hoping the currently-reported numbers are the "real" numbers.

Indiana appears to be reporting 142 more deaths going back to late October. That includes adding one to the already-record daily high of 69 on November 23.

I suspect that the next couple days will bring higher-than-usual daily reports until the reporting processes are caught up.

ICU capacity still looks like it has about 25% availability, which is good. I am aware that there are contingencies in place for emergency overflow that would significantly expand that, too.

Here in Indiana, although the numbers aren't good, I think we're weathering this pretty well overall.

 

[drillsgt]

And now for something completely different...

[video=youtube;mynHaZ92E7s]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mynHaZ92E7s[/video]

 

[nonobaddog]

Now the CDC has found antibodies in blood samples from california, oregon and washington as early as Dec 13. Which means the disease was around long enough before that to develop the antibodies - much earlier than previously thought by some.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-...cember-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

 

[chipbennett]

Now the CDC has found antibodies in blood samples from california, oregon and washington as early as Dec 13. Which means the disease was around long enough before that to develop the antibodies - much earlier than previously thought by some.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-...cember-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

Huh. You don't say.

 

[Bennettjh]

Now the CDC has found antibodies in blood samples from california, oregon and washington as early as Dec 13. Which means the disease was around long enough before that to develop the antibodies - much earlier than previously thought by some.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-...cember-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

Interesting. Can't say I'm surprised.

 

[dusty88]

Now the CDC has found antibodies in blood samples from california, oregon and washington as early as Dec 13. Which means the disease was around long enough before that to develop the antibodies - much earlier than previously thought by some.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-...cember-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

Read the study itself. if this is the study I think it is... I believe the authors say that their serology was not necessarily specific and could have picked up other coronaviruses.

 

[Rookie]

I read in one source that if you have gotten together with more than five family members, you should consider yourself infected , and go get a test. Another source said that if you travelled AT ALL over Thanksgiving, you should consider yourself infected, and go get a test. Who is paying for all of these tests, and for what purpose are they really being given?

Hmmm...
Whoops!

 

[dusty88]

I read in one source that if you have gotten together with more than five family members, you should consider yourself infected , and go get a test. Another source said that if you travelled AT ALL over Thanksgiving, you should consider yourself infected, and go get a test. Who is paying for all of these tests, and for what purpose are they really being given?

They might serve the purpose of knowing who needs to quarantine, but since it's not easy to get a quick and accurate test right now I don't think they are serving a purpose. The RAPID test won't be positive unless you are shedding a significant viral load and the PCR tests are taking many days.

 

[nonobaddog]

Read the study itself. if this is the study I think it is... I believe the authors say that their serology was not necessarily specific and could have picked up other coronaviruses.

This particular study they are referring to was published on November 30(yesterday). I do not know what study you are referring to.
It says

"Specimens reactive by pan-immunoglobulin (pan Ig) enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) against the full spike protein were tested by IgG and IgM ELISAs, microneutralization test, Ortho total Ig S1 ELISA, and receptor binding domain / Ace2 blocking activity assay."

I do not know the exact specificity of their tests.

 

[T.Lex]

My unfrozen caveman spreadsheet suggests that, based on average deaths per day since 4/1 and a rolling 5-day average of daily deaths, we're going to stay in an exponential growth curve (~145 days to double) for another 2 weeks.

There may be some people that say there was a bump back in August, but we didn't have an exponential growth curve during that time.

 

[ghitch75]

Now the CDC has found antibodies in blood samples from california, oregon and washington as early as Dec 13. Which means the disease was around long enough before that to develop the antibodies - much earlier than previously thought by some.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-...cember-2019-cdc-scientists-report-11606782449

i think it was here in late Nov 19 as week of thanksgiving i had terrible sinus infection and a fever for 5 day...then got a z pack then it was done...

 

[nonobaddog]

A casualty of beer flu...

"I went for a walk with my new girlfriend and we saw two dogs mating.
She said: How does the male know when the female is ready for sex?I replied: He can smell she is ready. That is how nature works.
We then walked past a sheep field and the ram was mating the ewe.
Again my girlfriend asked: How the ram knew when the ewe was ready for sex?
I replied: It’s nature. He can smell she is ready.
We then went past a cow-field and the bull was mating the cow.
My girlfriend said: This is odd. They are all at it. Surely the bull can’t smell when she is ready.
I said: Look, it’s nature. All animals can smell when the female is ready for sex.
Anyway and after the walk, I dropped her home and kissed her goodbye.
She said: Take care and get yourself checked for Covid-19.
Surprised, I asked her: Why did you say that?

She said: You seem to have lost your sense of smell ..."

 

[HoosierLife]

So I have a health share plan that doesn’t pay for tests.

Where could I go, in Greenwood, to get an inexpensive antibody test.

 

[HoosierLife]

Never mind, Kroger has them for $25.