Beer Virus V

[terrehautian]

Also hospitals get more pneumonia/flu this time of year, some severe. Not uncommon for pneumonia and covid to go together also. Had a friend who was hospitalized for that exact combo (fine now).

 

[BugI02]

An alternate view, using the worldometers numbers for today to calculate percentage of those tested who eventually end up testing positive and dying, would imply a maximum of just under 488k dead if those odds were applied to 331million people

And there is no reason to believe the CFR is going anywhere but down, as it has declined from almost 4% to its current 2.13% a bit over 4 months. There is no compelling reason to agree, but the numbers can be tested in the future. Given the rate of decline, I would expect the CFR, approximated via worldometers numbers, to drop below 2% on or before Dec 4, 2020

Dropped below 2% based on current data, down to 1.98%, so dropping faster than my regression suggested. Although I stated 'on or before' I would only claim to have nailed it if it was +/- one day. But as I said '... no reason to believe the CFR is going anywhere but down'

The quoted prediction is #364 in this thread, from 11/21/20

 

[jamil]

Some good news for once, or at least not the constant worse news.

The rate of new cases definitely plateaued about 10 days ago, and are/were maybe starting to fall. Over the next week or two we'll see if the holiday get togethers cause a change in that.



Likewise, the rate of hospital admissions appears to have plateaued as well.



And the hospital census is flattening also.



ICU is at 43.8%... up but doesn't seem to be following the previous rate of increase... looks like it's still going up, but not as fast, IMO.




Positivity rate peaked about the the same time the cases hit the plateau and has started coming down. Avg daily fatality rate has a peak at 56 per day... down since then, but we will see if that was "real" or holiday weekend delays in reporting.

(FWIW, neighbor is a lab tech and said in their lab, positivity has started to "sky rocket", her words... close to half yesterday were positive... again, one tech in one lab so YMMV)

Oh. So apparently all the conservatives went progressive.

 

[jamil]

Yeah, while I'm always a fan of cautious optimism, I am concerned that the "good" numbers are more a product of the reporting processes being suspended because those personnel responsible for that particular chain were on vacation. Let's face it, those responsible for reporting are typically not on the front line, but more administrative. So they get to use their vacation days.

I'll certainly be watching to see the lagging numbers get caught up.

Again, I'm with you and hoping the currently-reported numbers are the "real" numbers.

Ya, not likely a leopard would change its spots.

 

[jamil]

Also hospitals get more pneumonia/flu this time of year, some severe. Not uncommon for pneumonia and covid to go together also. Had a friend who was hospitalized for that exact combo (fine now).

Jeez. That had to suck.

 

[BugI02]

Paging qwerty. I'm finding it much harder to find raw, aggregate US death data than previously. Pages and pages devoted to the 'excess death' interpretation of the data with various sorts of spin on the results, but to just get a recent aggregate to compare to the average total death is much more difficult. I can only assume that comparison doesn't fit the allowed narrative

Do you happen to have a source for that information, even if it is the weekly totals and I have to add them up

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Oh. So apparently all the conservatives went progressive.

I didn't ascribe reasons for the changes in trends... but the two I can think of are:

1. People changed their behaviors and whatever "things" that large numbers of people started doing changed the tide, or

2. It's naturally fizzling out on it's own, these were just "virgin" areas getting hit, we'll be done with it shortly.

Place your bets, spin the wheel...

Paging qwerty. I'm finding it much harder to find raw, aggregate US death data than previously. Pages and pages devoted to the 'excess death' interpretation of the data with various sorts of spin on the results, but to just get a recent aggregate to compare to the average total death is much more difficult. I can only assume that comparison doesn't fit the allowed narrative

Do you happen to have a source for that information, even if it is the weekly totals and I have to add them up

Would like to see such sources also... in the past when looking for such info (way before COVID), the only data available was a year to a year and a half old... as in about now 2019 might be available.

 

[jamil]

I didn't ascribe reasons for the changes in trends... but the two I can think of are:

1. People changed their behaviors and whatever "things" that large numbers of people started doing changed the tide, or

2. It's naturally fizzling out on it's own, these were just "virgin" areas getting hit, we'll be done with it shortly.

Place your bets, spin the wheel...

Of course I was mocking "it's all conservatives fault!!!"

But anyway, if I were a betting man, I'd bet on red. It's burning through the population. It'll fizzle.

 

[nonobaddog]

We are only at about 13 to 14 M cases so there are another 316 M un-cases yet to go. So there is plenty of room to rage a while before fizzle.

 

[T.Lex]

Of course I was mocking "it's all conservatives fault!!!"

But anyway, if I were a betting man, I'd bet on red. It's burning through the population. It'll fizzle.

I think there's something to this. It is kinda a race between the vaccine and the virus just running out of hosts. That's one problem (from the virus's perspective) with exponential growth - it doesn't take long to burn through an entire population.

 

[BugI02]

I didn't ascribe reasons for the changes in trends... but the two I can think of are:

1. People changed their behaviors and whatever "things" that large numbers of people started doing changed the tide, or

2. It's naturally fizzling out on it's own, these were just "virgin" areas getting hit, we'll be done with it shortly.

Place your bets, spin the wheel...



Would like to see such sources also... in the past when looking for such info (way before COVID), the only data available was a year to a year and a half old... as in about now 2019 might be available.

There used to be aggregates of all deaths available for 2020, up through at least late August as I recall. Not sure what the latency was but it didn't seem to be much beyond a couple of weeks

 

[BugI02]

With the vaccine not yet in anything like general distribution and the necessity of two doses seperated by 30 days (I believe), the rough trend data we derive should still be valid for at least another two to three months. I expect that will be enough to push the rough worldometers-based CFR pretty close to 1% if not below it

Prediction: The vaccine will get credit for any and all drops in CFR in the MSM, no regular news source will ever admit to overestimating the seriousness of this

 

[nonobaddog]

Prediction: The vaccine will get credit for any and all drops in CFR in the MSM, no regular news source will ever admit to overestimating the seriousness of this

I believe this - since the MSM doesn't admit to any of their other numerous mistakes.

 

[jamil]

I'd still like to know more about WTF Fauci was talking about when he said the bit about the vaccine (I think the RNA based one) not stopping the disease, but stopping the symptoms. Sounds like a leaky vaccine to me. How is that better if a lot of people get that vaccine and then act like the pre-symptomatic spreaders? I really wish he'd have explained that more in depth.

 

[T.Lex]

We are only at about 13 to 14 M cases so there are another 316 M un-cases yet to go. So there is plenty of room to rage a while before fizzle.

True.

And, given this is a novel virus, there's really no way to overestimate the seriousness of this.

But, given the mitigation tactics that have been put to use since this started, and people spending more time indoors, my sense is that there will be localized "burn outs" that also - somewhat counter-intuitively - stall the wider spread. As it is, if anyone in a family tests positive (or even has the more dramatic symptoms like a fever or loss of taste/smell), then everybody quarantines.

That doesn't solve for the a-/pre-/non-symptomatic person, but keeps large cohorts of possible spreaders isolated.

 

[T.Lex]

I'd still like to know more about WTF Fauci was talking about when he said the bit about the vaccine (I think the RNA based one) not stopping the disease, but stopping the symptoms. Sounds like a leaky vaccine to me. How is that better if a lot of people get that vaccine and then act like the pre-symptomatic spreaders? I really wish he'd have explained that more in depth.

I missed that - any linkification? Because that would suck.

 

[nonobaddog]

Consider the source.

 

[qwerty]

Paging qwerty. I'm finding it much harder to find raw, aggregate US death data than previously. Pages and pages devoted to the 'excess death' interpretation of the data with various sorts of spin on the results, but to just get a recent aggregate to compare to the average total death is much more difficult. I can only assume that comparison doesn't fit the allowed narrative

Do you happen to have a source for that information, even if it is the weekly totals and I have to add them up

I wish there was a good source, but like all things like this the data lags by a year. The WONDER is a good tool, but the latest data is 2018: http://wonder.cdc.gov/ For the data it does have, it works well. You can adjust it by death illness type using the ICD-10 and 10 113 codes, so influenza, pneumonia, etc. The data is not raw and I did not really see anything from the CDC unless I am missing it at https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data_access/vitalstatsonline.htm

For Covid data, the information at https://twnwi.com/ is still being automatically updated daily, and some data like the individual state stats is updated throughout the day. The interactive dashboard has six pages of Wuflu fun. You can filter Indiana Data by specific counties to compare regions or counties for different time periods . The national map on page 6 is where you can compare the current stats by state, as well as combining states to compare cases and deaths. The data is broken down by county. It will choke on mobile devices, so the best experience will be on the desktop.

 

[qwerty]

I missed that - any linkification? Because that would suck.

Not sure if this is what you are looking for: https://www.noagendashow.net/listen/1296?t=26:21

 

[JCSR]

Good explanation on the PCR testing and false cases.
[FONT=&amp]
November 30, 2020[/FONT]
The COVID Case Con Continues

[FONT=&amp]By Brian C. Joondeph, M.D.[/FONT]
[FONT=&amp][FONT=&amp]As many Americans recover from their “virtual Thanksgiving,” sharing prayers and turkey across the internet, the media is pushing their November propaganda narrative, that Dementia Joe really won the presidential election and that COVID cases are once again surging across America.
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https://www.americanthinker.com/art...es.html?utm_source=vuukle&utm_medium=newsfeed
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