Returning to my ongoing discussion with T. Lex: I will let Justice Gorsuch provide the answer: "Government is not free to disregard the First Amendment in times of crisis."
[Mic drop, Gorsuch-style]
I think Holcomb's early position on religious gatherings was over-reach (tempered by a lack of enforcement so as to mitigate an "as applied" problem), if the restrictions are numbers-based, then it gets trickier with regard to religious gatherings.
If we take the "public speech" framework, a limitation on number of people in a gathering is content-neutral.
Also, to make clear, I'm not going to defend (or even really opine) on what happens in other states. Too many variables I don't really care about.