Beer Virus V

[JettaKnight]

Research isn’t always necessary. If government tells us we can’t leave our homes to be outside, including in our own yards, that’s crazy enough to tell them to **** all the way off. We can’t justify the sure harm just any old restriction will do on the whim that it might do something. Can’t exercise outside? It’s like people are just making up **** to put people through. No. Justify it. If they can’t. Then tell them to **** off!

...Moments when I'm uber-proud to be an American...

On a motorcycle board, the Aussies are talking about mothballing their bikes because of restrictions.

There's absolutely no sane, logical justification for not letting someone ride a motorcycle out in the country.

 

[HoughMade]

Someone here on INGO claimed that outdoors on my rural estate with no one around, I could get infected because virus particles could stay aloft and travel mile upon mile in the air.

 

[jamil]

I agree with your reply with the exception of being profanity laced, but with the tangential exception of the first sentence, it doesn't seem be a response to my post.

How can you be so certain it was profanity laced? How do you know I didn't just throw a bunch of *'s on the page? In this case, I only had to count to four. Heck, That's not even all the fingers on one hand!

 

[jamil]

I know how much INGO has missed my fun-with-numbers updates (sorry for the snark, CM).

But... something interesting will happen in the next few days.

So, when we think of epidemics/pandemics, the really bad stuff happens when there is exponential growth. That's a mathematical signal that things are out of control. One way to measure this is to figure how many days it takes for the numbers to double. The positive cases has been doing that, based partly on robust testing. My focus, the number of deaths, is a lagging indicator, but to me is more important. From mid-March to the end of March, the number of days for the number of deaths to double was going down. It was as low as 3 (almost 2) days for the total number of deaths to double. That indicates exponential growth in deaths at an accelerating rate.

Since March 29, though, the number of days for the number of deaths to double has been steadily increasing. In fact, it has never decreased since then. The current number of deaths is roughly double what the number of deaths was 145 days ago. Basically, the end of June. And, like I said, the number of days that it took to double has only increased since March 29. That's a good thing. (There has been an ebb and flow to the actual rate, but it has still been relatively linear.)

Based on the rolling averages and looking back to the numbers at the end of June, though, it looks like that number-of-days-to-double will drop to 144 in the next day or so. That, in and of itself, isn't a tragedy. It is just another indication that "control" of this is getting away from us.

I'm not going to try and predict what will happen. This may just be a statistical aberration for a day or so (which would be good). But, if the days-to-double continues to decrease, that will be a harbinger of more bad news.

Now, c'mon. I think we need a clear definition of "snark". Sarcasm is not snark. Snark is clearly something intended to upset the person(s) it was aimed at.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Now, c'mon. I think we need a clear definition of "snark". Sarcasm is not snark. Snark is clearly something intended to upset the person(s) it was aimed at.

I thought "snark" was what someone with a hare lip shouts when they see a fin breaking the water just off the beach...

 

[jamil]

I would also question the halo effect on restrictions. Restrictions get credit for any improvements they are adjacent to. There never seems to be any push to do the science to connect the two. If this pandemic were to follow the general shape of 1918, there would be two temporaly separated relatively short-lived spikes. If we impose a lockdown at the peak of the secondary spike, right as it begins to trend down, do you think studies will be made to determine whether lockdowns actually caused the tailing off of the spike or do you think lockdowns will just get the credit and remain in the toolkit whether they work or not?

That's a very good point. People superficially accept that masks are the primary reason why some countries have done much better than the US even though some other countries have done much better while mask usage is worse. India, for example has ~44% mask usage but only has 95 deaths/1M population, compared with the US which has >50% mask usage, but 777 deaths per 1M. Obviously there are other factors driving the numbers more strongly than masks.

On your last question, I think politicians will throw **** at the statistics to see what sticks. In Australia they have a population more willing to obey just any whim their government dreams up. Obviously when they make silly rules like you can't exercise outside even on your own property, it's not science based. No study told them that was a good idea, or even helpful. All it does is **** people off. Well, I'm not sure about Aussies. They don't seem to be pissed enough yet to vote sane people in. Hell. I'm pissed that they did that and I don't live there.

If I were POTUS I'd close the US Embassy there and tell the Aussie Pussident that we just can't be friends anymore. They're too ****ing crazy to be friends with.

 

[jamil]

Someone here on INGO claimed that outdoors on my rural estate with no one around, I could get infected because virus particles could stay aloft and travel mile upon mile in the air.

Well. Let's say that's true. That virus isn't gonna stay alive long if it's sunny, and even if it isn't, the wind will disperse it enough that you're not gonna get infected with enough of it to do anything. The odds that it would infect anyone are really low. I think you'd be fine to exercise outside on your own land, or on any public land, if you socially distance yourself. I don't even think it's necessary to wear masks outside as long as you maintain the recommended distance from people.

 

[jamil]

...Moments when I'm uber-proud to be an American...

On a motorcycle board, the Aussies are talking about mothballing their bikes because of restrictions.

There's absolutely no sane, logical justification for not letting someone ride a motorcycle out in the country.

Why are they not talking about defying the restrictions? Where's their "**** you" attitude towards their ****ty government. I was kidding earlier about closing the embassy, but I dunno. Maybe I should tweet that suggestion to Trump while he's still in office.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Someone here on INGO claimed that outdoors on my rural estate with no one around, I could get infected because virus particles could stay aloft and travel mile upon mile in the air.

I don't know who that person was, and don't really care, but they are clearly insane.

 

[JettaKnight]

Why are they not talking about defying the restrictions? Where's their "**** you" attitude towards their ****ty government. I was kidding earlier about closing the embassy, but I dunno. Maybe I should tweet that suggestion to Trump while he's still in office.

These people gave up their guns a couple of decades ago... must be ingrained in the culture.


PS - it seems their populace is convinced that following a brainless rule like that for just six days is going to wipe out the virus in the continent.

 

[Phase2]

'Famines of biblical proportions' feared in 2021 amid COVID-19 pandemic, UN food agency warns

Less production overall. Wealthier nations can better afford to help others, but are less wealthy when they reduce overall production. Sigh...

 

[NKBJ]

Early on there were reports of the bank bug being spread down wind of decomposing bodies. But how could a mask protect you from that?

 

[nonobaddog]

Someone here on INGO claimed that outdoors on my rural estate with no one around, I could get infected because virus particles could stay aloft and travel mile upon mile in the air.

That was probably me. There are two different things here - 'infected' vs getting sick is one and the travel of an aerosol virus particle is the other.

The gold standard study on covid virus viability says that the virus has a half life of about three hours in air if I remember right. If you breathe in the virus you could be considered infected. Whether you get sick or not depends on a sufficient viral load and the individual's immune system. The point is not about getting sick - it is about the travel. Your odds of getting sick this way are very close to zero.

Anyway, yes, a virus sized particle or any particle around 1 micron in size or smaller can travel for miles and miles in the air. I believe the example was that in a 5 mph wind it could travel 15 miles in three hours and then somebody could breathe it in. That example is true and that is nothing.

Winds can certainly be faster than 5 mph and a particle the size of the covid virus can stay in the air for weeks. There is nothing magic about the virus particle that allows it to behave any different than similar aerosol particles in the air. Smoke aerosol particles can travel across several states, even out west where the states are big. That is hundreds of miles. The particles are suspended by Brownian motion and do not precipitate. The main way they are removed from the air is scrubbing by rain.

Obviously the virus particle would be killed by ultraviolet so it would remain viable longer at night but viable or not it certainly would travel in the wind.

And no I am not insane, I was tested.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

That was probably me. There are two different things here - 'infected' vs getting sick is one and the travel of an aerosol virus particle is the other.

The gold standard study on covid virus viability says that the virus has a half life of about three hours in air if I remember right. If you breathe in the virus you could be considered infected. Whether you get sick or not depends on a sufficient viral load and the individual's immune system. The point is not about getting sick - it is about the travel. Your odds of getting sick this way are very close to zero.

Anyway, yes, a virus sized particle or any particle around 1 micron in size or smaller can travel for miles and miles in the air. I believe the example was that in a 5 mph wind it could travel 15 miles in three hours and then somebody could breathe it in. That example is true and that is nothing.

Winds can certainly be faster than 5 mph and a particle the size of the covid virus can stay in the air for weeks. There is nothing magic about the virus particle that allows it to behave any different than similar aerosol particles in the air. Smoke aerosol particles can travel across several states, even out west where the states are big. That is hundreds of miles. The particles are suspended by Brownian motion and do not precipitate. The main way they are removed from the air is scrubbing by rain.

Obviously the virus particle would be killed by ultraviolet so it would remain viable longer at night but viable or not it certainly would travel in the wind.

And no I am not insane, I was tested.

Sheldon, is that you??

 

[DoggyDaddy]

But seriously nnbd, that's a pretty good stretch to think that the scenario you described would actually be a threat. I mean it's the butterfly effect, isn't it? Theoretically possible, but practically unlikely.

 

[Bennettjh]

I know how much INGO has missed my fun-with-numbers updates (sorry for the snark, CM).

But... something interesting will happen in the next few days.

So, when we think of epidemics/pandemics, the really bad stuff happens when there is exponential growth. That's a mathematical signal that things are out of control. One way to measure this is to figure how many days it takes for the numbers to double. The positive cases has been doing that, based partly on robust testing. My focus, the number of deaths, is a lagging indicator, but to me is more important. From mid-March to the end of March, the number of days for the number of deaths to double was going down. It was as low as 3 (almost 2) days for the total number of deaths to double. That indicates exponential growth in deaths at an accelerating rate.

Since March 29, though, the number of days for the number of deaths to double has been steadily increasing. In fact, it has never decreased since then. The current number of deaths is roughly double what the number of deaths was 145 days ago. Basically, the end of June. And, like I said, the number of days that it took to double has only increased since March 29. That's a good thing. (There has been an ebb and flow to the actual rate, but it has still been relatively linear.)

Based on the rolling averages and looking back to the numbers at the end of June, though, it looks like that number-of-days-to-double will drop to 144 in the next day or so. That, in and of itself, isn't a tragedy. It is just another indication that "control" of this is getting away from us.

I'm not going to try and predict what will happen. This may just be a statistical aberration for a day or so (which would be good). But, if the days-to-double continues to decrease, that will be a harbinger of more bad news.

I check every so often to see if you've updated us with your numbers. Probably a lot to keep track of I'm sure.

I understand what you're saying about the death rate. At least I think I understand.

 

[nonobaddog]

But seriously nnbd, that's a pretty good stretch to think that the scenario you described would actually be a threat. I mean it's the butterfly effect, isn't it? Theoretically possible, but practically unlikely.

Exactly - I don't believe this was ever presented as a threat. Particulate travel has been studied a lot, it is a given. I really don't understand denying it.

Everything from sea salt aerosols from the oceans(probably the biggest body of study) and desert particulates from wind storms to strintium90 fallout back in the atmospheric nuclear testing days.

 

[BugI02]

That's a very good point. People superficially accept that masks are the primary reason why some countries have done much better than the US even though some other countries have done much better while mask usage is worse. India, for example has ~44% mask usage but only has 95 deaths/1M population, compared with the US which has >50% mask usage, but 777 deaths per 1M. Obviously there are other factors driving the numbers more strongly than masks.

On your last question, I think politicians will throw **** at the statistics to see what sticks. In Australia they have a population more willing to obey just any whim their government dreams up. Obviously when they make silly rules like you can't exercise outside even on your own property, it's not science based. No study told them that was a good idea, or even helpful. All it does is **** people off. Well, I'm not sure about Aussies. They don't seem to be pissed enough yet to vote sane people in. Hell. I'm pissed that they did that and I don't live there.

If I were POTUS I'd close the US Embassy there and tell the Aussie Pussident that we just can't be friends anymore. They're too ****ing crazy to be friends with.

My take is the politicians are floundering around in search of something they can actually pull off to make it appear that the current restriction are even restrictier than the last ones. For example, our idiot mayor has indicated that people should wear masks at all times within our metro parks regardless of whether social distancing can be maintained. Apparently my wife and I should mask up even if we are the only ones within our field of view. It is this sort of thing that convinces me it is all theatre

Looks like our governor's leash will be shortened, the legislature has just marked up a bill to outlaw closing businesses again in the event of a lockdown and we stuffed the previous head of ODH from attempting to impose restrictions via delegated authority from the governor. He has to order it and he has to own it, I was only following [STRIKE]orders[/STRIKE] the expert's advice won't fly

 

[BugI02]

'Famines of biblical proportions' feared in 2021 amid COVID-19 pandemic, UN food agency warns

Less production overall. Wealthier nations can better afford to help others, but are less wealthy when they reduce overall production. Sigh...

Well, we have pestilence and death and famine is on the way. I'm sure we can rely on Biden and the neocons to give us the fourth one

 

[nonobaddog]

Sheldon, is that you??

That is such a good line - just had to steal it.