Beer Virus V

[SheepDog4Life]

That word means exactly what I want it to mean (insert snarky smiley face like I think I know something). Sorry that's not how power and sample size works, nobody but you would call this underpowered. In a real world pragmatic study like this getting 93% to roughly follow the protocol is better than I would expect. The incidence of infection in the non-mask group was already so low that even if the non-adherers in the mask group affected their incidence rate it likely wouldn't have mattered. In fact when they took out the somewhat adhered group and just tested the absolute adherers their infection rates got worse. Their results clearly show that for this population mask vs. no mask didn't matter. You keep getting stuck on this 46% vs. 23% that they indicate as inconclusive but what they are arguing is they couldn't decide if wearing the mask helped or hurt within that group, because the effect was non-significant lol. They weren't arguing that the overall result of the study was inconclusive. That part was only put in there to appease and support the mask wearing narrative at time of publication. Go back and read the first paragraph of the discussion and you'll see it in context. Sorry but this article just doesn't support your narrative.

I think you're getting hung up on the nominal result, like it's the gospel... it's not. When they look at only the adherer's the nominal difference gets smaller between mask/non-mask but the confidence interval explodes even further open... indicating insufficient sample size:

Three post hoc (not preplanned) analyses were done. In the first, which included only participants reporting wearing face masks “exactly as instructed,” infection (the primary outcome) occurred in 22 participants (2.0%) in the face mask group and 53 (2.1%) in the control group (between-group difference, −0.2 percentage point [CI, −1.3 to 0.9 percentage point]; P = 0.82) (OR, 0.93 [CI, 0.56 to 1.54]; P = 0.78).

The 50% reduction they were testing for is within the CI, so it cannot be ruled out... likewise a 0% reduction is within the CI so it cannot be ruled out either.

That's inconclusive either way because the size of the study was not large enough. Masking could have reduced infections by half (or more)... or it could have had no reduction (or even actually increased infections). We cannot tell from this study.

 

[wagyu52]

[video=youtube_share;-G1ZVO0e3-4]https://youtu.be/-G1ZVO0e3-4[/video]





Starts his talk at 11:00 min in. I’m completely with him, so over all this.

 

[churchmouse]

[video=youtube_share;-G1ZVO0e3-4]https://youtu.be/-G1ZVO0e3-4[/video]





Start around 11:00 min in. I’m completely with him, so over all this.

Well gird your loins Amigo it aint over till they have milked this to death.

 

[bwframe]

People are stupid ate up on this.

I have to keep telling myself to just not talk to my daughter and another friend about this. They are drinking the koolaid and scared less.

I got an invite to Thanksgiving with some distant family that I really would like to see. I'm overdue for a catch up visit with that side of the family. Masks are the requirement for dinner. If the weather fools around and lets me, I may ride the couple hour ride up there. Kinda doubt it though, conversations will trend to one's like today with the daughter and ate up friend. Not good for my mental health.

Maybe just drag out the orange hat and 300BLK pistol on Thanksgiving and take a walk in the woods. Bambi does require a mask...

 

[IndyDave1776]

People are stupid ate up on this.

I have to keep telling myself to just not talk to my daughter and another friend about this. They are drinking the koolaid and scared less.

I got an invite to Thanksgiving with some distant family that I really would like to see. I'm overdue for a catch up visit with that side of the family. Masks are the requirement for dinner. If the weather fools around and lets me, I may ride the couple hour ride up there. Kinda doubt it though, conversations will trend to one's like today with the daughter and ate up friend. Not good for my mental health...

I wish you the best. Dealing with true believers up close and personal like that would have to be very trying.

 

[foszoe]

We’re pretty ****ing resourceful. We’d figure it out. No need to kill someone on this side of the teeter-totter so we can think we might save someone on the other. Shutdowns are immoral.

In a broader scope, if one views shutdowns as outside the realm of governmental authority and against constitutional rights, then is there any illness with a high enough death rate that would change minds?

 

[churchmouse]

In a broader scope, if one views shutdowns as outside the realm of governmental authority and against constitutional rights, then is there any illness with a high enough death rate that would change minds?

A true Pandemic might change mine.

 

[foszoe]

A true Pandemic might change mine.

The scene from outbreak always comes to mind. I root for that truck to get out of town every time.

 

[jamil]

In a broader scope, if one views shutdowns as outside the realm of governmental authority and against constitutional rights, then is there any illness with a high enough death rate that would change minds?

Yes. I’m sure there is. This one ain’t it.

 

[nonobaddog]

WWZ

 

[SheepDog4Life]

We’re pretty ****ing resourceful. We’d figure it out. No need to kill someone on this side of the teeter-totter so we can think we might save someone on the other. Shutdowns are immoral.

Then we had better figure it out pretty quick.

This isn't "just" about spiking case numbers, hospitalizations are spiking also... in September and October, the average non-ICU COVID hospital stay was 10 days (Regensteif Institute dashboard). This is not just a short day or two in the hospital. Average ICU stay was 11 days.

With a week to go in September, COVID ICU utilization was 10% and had been running +/- a percent of two of that for months.

About 4 1/2 weeks later, that had doubled to 20%, October 20th.

Another 4 1/2 weeks later and we've doubled again to 39.0%.

We cannot double again in another month as there are only 22% of the beds available, the other 39.3% are occupied by non-COVID ICU patients.

Daily deaths have done the same on the same timeline, doubling from 8-10 per day, to 20 per day, now to right at 40 per day.

Also from Regensteif, 18% of the COVID patients severe enough to be admitted to the hospital die. By math, that means 82% survive.

What happens to those proportions when there are no beds or staff to handle those who need hospital care? Who have dangerously low pulse O2? Or have developed pneumonia?

Buckle up, it's going to be a rough ride.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Folks, I'm taking a vacation from INGO.

The next month and a half will either be extremely bleak... or it'll *poof* be gone because it's only a mirage that many of you have been claiming.

I really, really hope that you are right.

See you on the flip side.

SD4L out.

 

[ghuns]

As I sit here, alone in my office, maskless, I feel like such a rebel...

Elkhart County issues new face mask order

The Elkhart County Health Department issues a new face mask order to help slow the spread of the coronavirus, and it will remain in effect until it’s canceled by Elkhart County’s health officer.


Starting just after midnight, at 12:01 Thursday, everyone in Elkhart County must wear a face mask over their nose and mouth in public.

 

[jamil]

Folks, I'm taking a vacation from INGO.

The next month and a half will either be extremely bleak... or it'll *poof* be gone because it's only a mirage that many of you have been claiming.

I really, really hope that you are right.

See you on the flip side.

SD4L out.

Ooh. Here’s an idea. Start sending the overflow to nursing homes.

 

[Phase2]

Ooh. Here’s an idea. Start sending the overflow to nursing homes.

Meh... It's been done to death.

 

[churchmouse]

Folks, I'm taking a vacation from INGO.

The next month and a half will either be extremely bleak... or it'll *poof* be gone because it's only a mirage that many of you have been claiming.

I really, really hope that you are right.

See you on the flip side.

SD4L out.

Man you need to take one. No it is real but this is the flu season coming up. Give us the real numbers. Split out the real issues and set the covid numbers out in the truth. Not the fiction we have had stuffed up our butts.

And relax man. Have an adult Beveridge. Stop watching what ever news outlet you are attached to.

Here is a thought.....go look in the gun threads. Are you a gun owner. Do you shoot. Enjoy the forum. Stop beating this drum as we are all tired of the tune. It is old and worn out. If you do not see past this as to what it is doing to the economy and folks trying to stay solvent and raise a family then you do need a break.

God love you sir. Be well.

 

[dusty88]

Folks, I'm taking a vacation from INGO.

The next month and a half will either be extremely bleak... or it'll *poof* be gone because it's only a mirage that many of you have been claiming.

I really, really hope that you are right.

See you on the flip side.

SD4L out.

SDL, sorry and stay safe.

I think there is a misperception here because there are a handful of people who dominate this thread with their bias that the data is made up, and the various other versions of denial. Most of the sensible conversation just left because hearing the conspiracy theories and the "scandemic" just doesn't make for rational conversation

If you are interested, here is a twitter list of epidemiologists, virologists, critical care docs, and infectious disease specialists. Some of them tweet about politics more than I would like, but I ignore that. It's a decent place to get info as new research comes out.
https://twitter.com/i/lists/1248261818608431107

I also strongly recommend Michael Osterholm's weekly podcast "the Osterholm update". Osterholm has been correct on pretty much everything about the pandemic, and he agrees were in for a rough few weeks or months.

I know my friends who work in critical care are already suffering emotionally and I'm truly worried whether they can stay the course. Take care and hunker down if you can.

 

[dusty88]

In a broader scope, if one views shutdowns as outside the realm of governmental authority and against constitutional rights, then is there any illness with a high enough death rate that would change minds?

This is a valid question and should be part of anyone's opinion-forming process IMO.

In my view, infectious disease outbreak is when a conflict of rights actually exists. People argue about other "rights" all the time like healthcare, or wear your seatbelt so you don't raise my insurance rates etc. But those are false. The connections made there are made by other institutions. We all have a right to decide our own personal risks and we don't have a right to expect others to take care of us .

The disease outbreak however, can mean one person is harming others by merely being present. And if you start arguing the person has a right to carry a deadly disease around and everyone else should stay home you are destroying any rational argument for allowing personal rights at all. One only need hypothesize something like the movie Contagion. The movie was fairly realistic except that you usually don't get a disease that is BOTH highly contagious and highly fatal. Covid19 isn't highly fatal in the traditional sense; it isn't killing 50% of those infected. But it's the presymptomatic spread and asymptomatic spread that makes it dangerous. It can really build in a society exponentially then you finally realize you have more sick people than you can care for.

But to go back to the question: take the presymptomatic spread of Covid, and add a 50% infection fatality rate, and are we still going to argue for everyone going about their business? If we then say "the scared stay home" we must expect with that, that almost every healthcare worker will simply quit. There will be no hospitals for sick people if hordes are walking in with a deadly disease, including some of the patients that come in for a broken leg.

 

[ghuns]

...Osterholm has been correct on pretty much everything about the pandemic...

Like when he said...

And yet even those officials and experts who have candidly predicted a pandemic are not saying enough about what to expect and how to prepare. Basic information is still lacking, or isn’t getting through: According to a recent survey, 65 percent of people in Hong Kong had enough surgical masks for a month or more — this, even though such masks will do little to prevent the spread of Covid-19.

Is It a Pandemic Yet?

Or when he was on the Joe Rogan podcast...

Asked by Rogan whether wearing gloves and a mask is 'nonsense' he nodded in agreement and replied: 'Largely'.


Osterholm told Rogan the 'whole issue of using your hands and touching your face' is likely not the main way the infection is passed. 'The data is actually very weak that the virus is going to be transmitted this way.'


He added that 'just breathing air' is likely the primary way coronavirus is spreading but warned surgical masks don't block small airborne particles from passing through and entering the nose the mouth.


Osterholm did hail the benefits of wearing more protective version of the mask but noted the availability is low.


'The N-95 respirator is very effective, but the problem is that we have a shortage,' Osterholm continued. 'Hospitals don't have the budgets to stockpile them.'

US expert who predicted the spread of coronavirus across the world says pandemic will last SIX MONTHS and a mask and gloves probably will NOT stop you catching it

 

[IndyDave1776]

SDL, sorry and stay safe.

I think there is a misperception here because there are a handful of people who dominate this thread with their bias that the data is made up, and the various other versions of denial. .

How is that a bias when they have been caught red-handed repeatedly?