Trump 2024 ???

[jamil]

Yes, the ones that actually count.



No, well done polls are pretty indicative, IMO. Within the margin of error, or pretty close to it...

BUT, all of the primaries are not tomorrow. The first is in, what, 3 months? Super Tuesday is something like 5 months away?

Remember the 2020 Dem primary? Prior to March 1st, Bernie had a wide-open, likely nominee lane with 4 other candidates competing with Biden for the not-Bernie votes.

March 1-5 Buttigeig, Klobachar, Bloomberg and Warren drop from the race and support Biden as the not-Bernie candidate.


Maybe the GOP is stupider than the Dems... maybe they will "re-play" the 2016 primaries with numerous candidates fracturing the not Trump again vote, allowing Trump to win (again) with a mere plurality.


I think pretty similar to any Dem who wasn't Bernie at this point in the 2020 Dem primary... and IIRC, Biden was considered toast in October 2015.

Trump has 61% in the polls compared to not-trump. Every one of them could drop out to endorse Desantis and he’d still come up short. Do you understand the problem here? This is not the same situation Bernie had. The not Bernie vote was a majority.

 

[BugI02]

I think he only understands Orange Man Bad these days


Oh, and dupe. See post #6654

 

[KLB]

I'm trying to discern the RoE

I'll make it easier, by your definition was Merrick Garland rejected as a SCOTUS nominee

Yep

 

[jamil]

I wouldn't categorize infidelity to the Constitution as "feelings"... YMMV.

It's a perception though.

I do think Trump, in a second term without worrying about a re-election, would sign a number of gun control bills, as he was on the brink of proposing in 2019.

A rash of active shootings during such a term and I do think he would sign an AR/AK ban, among other things.

In May, you get to pick from the number of candidates available. One of those will win the GOP primary and run against Joe Biden, or whichever commie Democrat they get to replace him.

So in November 2024 you get to pick from the available candidates. You can go third party if you want. That's an option. But, one of exactly two candidates will win. In Indiana it probably doesn't matter much. Because Trump will almost certainly win here. Trump doesn't need your vote to win unless something unforeseen happens.

Point is, if Trump is a gun grabber, one of two gun grabbers is gonna win. It's kind of a moot point. Pick your poison or sit it out.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Trump has 61% in the polls compared to not-trump. Every one of them could drop out to endorse Desantis and he’d still come up short. Do you understand the problem here? This is not the same situation Bernie had. The not Bernie vote was a majority.

View attachment 308128

But it's not a National election on one day... it's a series of state primaries/caucuses over a period of time. For iowa, NH, SC, Trump is right at or somewhat below 50%... and that's with the phoney-baloney indictment outrage vote (several of the indictments are phoney-baloney, not the outrage).

The hardcore Trump train is 35-40%... the rest is soft, IMO.

 

[jamil]

But it's not a National election on one day... it's a series of state primaries/caucuses over a period of time. For iowa, NH, SC, Trump is right at or somewhat below 50%... and that's with the phoney-baloney indictment outrage vote (several of the indictments are phoney-baloney, not the outrage).

The hardcore Trump train is 35-40%... the rest is soft, IMO.

Hey. I’ve complained about the primary system for years. We live in the real world. Now if you’re saying theoretically it could happen, yeah. Sure. Is it gonna happen? Not without some help from unforeseen circumstances. You need a pretty big surprise for DeSantis to win.

I think too many people, even those who don’t like Trump, see him as the bulldozer to plow over ClownWorld™. It is what it is. Not my first choice but it looks inevitable. Play the hand you got instead of playing the hand you wish you had.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Hey. I’ve complained about the primary system for years. We live in the real world. Now if you’re saying theoretically it could happen, yeah. Sure. Is it gonna happen? Not without some help from unforeseen circumstances. You need a pretty big surprise for DeSantis to win.

True, a big change of events would be predicate to any other than Trump winning the GOP nod, he has that 35-40% of the GOP who would vote for him even if he "stood in the middle of Fifth avenue and shot someone."

If they, the GOP collectively, repeat 2016 with multiple alternatives hanging until the bitter end, Trump wins the nomination.

THAT is as much a certainty as exists in politics.

I think too many people, even those who don’t like Trump, see him as the bulldozer to plow over ClownWorld™. It is what it is.

And, when looked at critically, is just isn't really true in a meaningful way. He "owns" the libs like no other, that's true... but he accomplishes very little that survives 12:01 pm of his successor's inauguration.

He's a pop tart for breakfast... just doesn't last...

Not my first choice but it looks inevitable. Play the hand you got instead of playing the hand you wish you had.

He is inevitable given the current lay of the land... I'm not preaching wishful thinking, I'm saying someone needs to rise to the occasion and figure out a "kobayashi maru"... or at least not stupidly repeat 2016... replaying the 2016 primary and expecting it to end differently? Well, somethin' somethin' definition of insanity...

And, I would add, it's almost as inevitable (let's call it highly likely) that he will lose the general and drag the House/Senate down with him, allowing ClownWorld™ unfettered power to implement their entire wishlist.

 

[BugI02]

Yep

Given that understanding, then many of Trump's desired appointees were rejected, but none by an actual vote of the senate

There is a website that lists such withdrawn nominations, if you want the names you can do your own work

 

[BugI02]

It's a perception though.


In May, you get to pick from the number of candidates available. One of those will win the GOP primary and run against Joe Biden, or whichever commie Democrat they get to replace him.

So in November 2024 you get to pick from the available candidates. You can go third party if you want. That's an option. But, one of exactly two candidates will win. In Indiana it probably doesn't matter much. Because Trump will almost certainly win here. Trump doesn't need your vote to win unless something unforeseen happens.

Point is, if Trump is a gun grabber, one of two gun grabbers is gonna win. It's kind of a moot point. Pick your poison or sit it out.

Yep. At the rate support for DeSantis is collapsing, voting for him should qualify as 'morally' equivalent to voting libertarian - saving many $$ on garment hem cleaning

 

[BugI02]

But it's not a National election on one day... it's a series of state primaries/caucuses over a period of time. For iowa, NH, SC, Trump is right at or somewhat below 50%... and that's with the phoney-baloney indictment outrage vote (several of the indictments are phoney-baloney, not the outrage).

The hardcore Trump train is 35-40%... the rest is soft, IMO.

Quick check at RCP

IOWA Trump is +33 on DeSantis and still +4 on him if everyone else dropped out and DeSantis got all their voters (which is, shall we say ... unlikely)

NH Trump is +30.8 on DeSantis and Haley - Haley !! is in 2nd place and +3.8 on DeSantis with ****ing Christie just -1.4 from DeSantis in 4th. Do you think they're going to quit and all their voters would go to DeSantis? Unhunh, yeah

SC Trump is +32.5 on his closest challenger, which is Haley again. Haley is +4 on DeSantis who is 3rd and Scott is 4th at -1.5 to DeSantis. The same caveats apply

For someone who is so amped about lack of hard evidence about the theft of the 2020 election, you have NO such concerns about your 'evidence' that Trump can still be beaten

It ain't happening'. Get some help

 

[BugI02]

Hey. I’ve complained about the primary system for years. We live in the real world. Now if you’re saying theoretically it could happen, yeah. Sure. Is it gonna happen? Not without some help from unforeseen circumstances. You need a pretty big surprise for DeSantis to win.

I think too many people, even those who don’t like Trump, see him as the bulldozer to plow over ClownWorld™. It is what it is. Not my first choice but it looks inevitable. Play the hand you got instead of playing the hand you wish you had.

"You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time."

 

[BugI02]

And, when looked at critically, is just isn't really true in a meaningful way. He "owns" the libs like no other, that's true... but he accomplishes very little that survives 12:01 pm of his successor's inauguration.

And, of course, with DeSantis (or Anyone But Trump, really) things would be different

Magical thinking. Show your talisman work

 

[BugI02]

I'm saying someone needs to rise to the occasion and figure out a "kobayashi maru"... or at least not stupidly repeat 2016...

Uhhh, 2016 ended with a republican in the whitehouse. Why wouldn't we want to repeat that? We should jump at the chance

 

[KLB]

I see one.

 

[BugI02]

I see one.
View attachment 308290

https://www.congress.gov/search?q=%7B%22source%22%3A%22nominations%22%7D&pageSize=100&page=90

Set at 100 per page, then start at page 90 and work your way up. Obviously, results were better for the 115th congress (2017 - 2018) than the 116th (2019 - 2020)

 

[SheepDog4Life]

I see one.
View attachment 308290

There you go confusing things with facts again! Lol!

Oh, yeah, Puzder who imploded into a puddle of mud:

The most damaging revelation, Republicans said, was his admission that he did not pay taxes on the services of an undocumented immigrant who worked for him for years. Puzder never recovered, entering a tailspin that ended with POLITICO’s publication of a video showing his ex-wife accusing Puzder of abuse.

So, other than that, Trump got EVERY SINGLE cabinet member he wanted? Who knew?

 

[jamil]

Given that understanding, then many of Trump's desired appointees were rejected, but none by an actual vote of the senate

There is a website that lists such withdrawn nominations, if you want the names you can do your own work

Did you change the shade of teal? Looks a little different.

 

[BugI02]

Nope. Maybe cut down on the Viagra dose

 

[KLB]

https://www.congress.gov/search?q=%7B%22source%22%3A%22nominations%22%7D&pageSize=100&page=90

Set at 100 per page, then start at page 90 and work your way up. Obviously, results were better for the 115th congress (2017 - 2018) than the 116th (2019 - 2020)

So here are the numbers for Obamas 2nd term, Trump, and Biden's first two years. I'm not seeing where he had this horrible time getting his guys into office.

Range	Referred	Confirmed	Withdrawn	Returned	Confirmed	Rejected	Withdrawn	Returned
All	41336​	35575​	818​	4746​	86%​	14%​	2%​	11%​
13-14	2098​	1708​	27​	498​	81%​	19%​	1%​	24%​
15-16	1825​	1595​	30​	300​	87%​	13%​	2%​	16%​
Obama 2nd	3923​	3303​	57​	798​	84%​	16%​	1%​	20%​
17-18	2595​	2185​	62​	421​	84%​	16%​	2%​	16%​
19-20	2308​	2015​	43​	324​	87%​	13%​	2%​	14%​
Trump Total	4903​	4200​	105​	745​	86%​	14%​	2%​	15%​
21-22	2677​	2349​	81​	354​	88%​	12%​	3%​	13%​

 

[jamil]

Nope. Maybe cut down on the Viagra dose

I think it was my phone. It changed to night-shift, which I have set to warm the colors. On the macbook it looks normal.