Trump 2024 ???

[SheepDog4Life]

I mean. It’s a valid point.

wait. “Real votes”

Yes, the ones that actually count.

You’re one of those, “the polls are inaccurate” guys?

No, well done polls are pretty indicative, IMO. Within the margin of error, or pretty close to it...

BUT, all of the primaries are not tomorrow. The first is in, what, 3 months? Super Tuesday is something like 5 months away?

Remember the 2020 Dem primary? Prior to March 1st, Bernie had a wide-open, likely nominee lane with 4 other candidates competing with Biden for the not-Bernie votes.

March 1-5 Buttigeig, Klobachar, Bloomberg and Warren drop from the race and support Biden as the not-Bernie candidate.

Desantis is an order of magnitude behind the error margin in every poll. Not what I was hoping for but we have to roll with reality. Only way DeSantis moves onto the general election is if something happens between now and then.

Maybe the GOP is stupider than the Dems... maybe they will "re-play" the 2016 primaries with numerous candidates fracturing the not Trump again vote, allowing Trump to win (again) with a mere plurality.

As it stands now, he done.

I think pretty similar to any Dem who wasn't Bernie at this point in the 2020 Dem primary... and IIRC, Biden was considered toast in October 2015.

 

[Ingomike]

Someone with some expertise (in something other than elections, btw) said something that he says indicates voter fraud... or possible voter fraud.

That's an appeal to some expert without any supporting, independent evidence... which is appeal to authority.

Not everyone has time to feed up your need for information that has been posted multiple times on this forum. That you are unaware of this is indicative you don’t know it all…

 

[Ingomike]

Well you'd have to read the same things Ingomike posted about it and tell us where he's wrong I guess. My only point against it is that even if his findings are legit, at most it's an indicator of potential fraud, not proof of fraud itself. Someone still has to prove that fraud actually happened and exactly who all did it.

And deserving of further investigation.

Why does it have to be proven who disenfranchised voters to get adjudication? If a bank is held up but the prep is unknown we still have a crime…

 

[Ingomike]

I think pretty similar to any Dem who wasn't Bernie at this point in the 2020 Dem primary... and IIRC

Republicans do not have super delegates…

 

[SheepDog4Life]

I dunno man. I think you're reaching here. I don't see this at all. What you're disagreeing with is that DeSantis's inability to gain any traction against Trump in the Primaries, translating to DeSantis being unable to beat Biden in the general.

Now we have a lot of people in the race and Trump doesn't merely have a plurality. It's an outright majority, and not by a little. If somehow the GOP were able to scuttle Trump's campaign like the DNC took out Bernie, would DeSantis even be the nominee?

Bernie's support was 35-40%, much like Trump's without the phony-baloney indictments outrage support.

There's a reason the "real" trial doesn't start until May...

Where do you think those Trump fans would go? DeSantis? Trumpers hate themselves some DeSantis. I think what would happen, Trump would get buthurt and start a third party run, and whoever was the GOP nominee would be ****ed.

IMO, the "Trump fans" are where they've always been, 40% ish. The BS NYC and Georgia indictments bump that considerably with an "outrage" cohort... per the plan.

But. Let's say that somehow TPTB were able to make it impossible for Trump to continue in any capacity. And let's say that somehow DeSantis figured out how to campaign, and managed to scrape past Rammy. It's possible DeSantis could beat Biden.

The thing with Trump, people that support him don't give a flying **** what the media claims about him. Nazi, racist, porn star ****er, classified document stealer, real estate fraudster, doesn't matter. The media has pounded all that **** into the average American and it doesn't stick. DeSantis does not have that.

The Trump fanboi's are still just 35-40%, IMO, the rest is nowhere near as enthusiastic nor loyal.

I don't think the GOP will repeat 2016... I do think they'll down-select to a single major GOP competitor to Trump. It remains to be seen if that'll be DeSantis, Haley or Scott.

It's already a crowded GOP field. Like I said, it's Trump vs everyone else and he's got a healthy majority. I'd rather smoke what you're smoking (figuratively of course) though, so I could have the confidence you have. My reality meter says DeSantis ain't going anywhere near the big boy chair this time around.

If it remains Trump vs DeSantis, Haley and Scott... Trump wins the nomination. Even if he is pared down to just his fanbois.

It can. Will it? We'll see. I am not confident in anything these days except another 4 years of ClownWorld™ will likely be unrecoverable.

Ditto... and when the May classified secrets trial starts, Trump drops like a rock and loses in a landslide if he's the nominee...

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Republicans do not have super delegates…

2020 when all others dropped out and closed ranks behind Biden, not 2016 when the Supers threw in with Hilary.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Not everyone has time to feed up your need for information that has been posted multiple times on this forum. That you are unaware of this is indicative you don’t know it all…

So is this the analysis of how the news reported results on election night? Or the over/unders of the other Republican votes in the state but not for Trump? Or something else?

There's so much spaghetti on the wall, it's hard to figure which particular pasta strand you're referring to...

 

[SheepDog4Life]

What?
This was the question.

I'd like those who do not want to see Trump as president list just 10 things that will have a negative impact on them (feeling aside) if he becomes president.

Doh! I incorrectly attributed DD'es quote to you. Mea culpa.

I've only got one and only need one.

Trump attempted to steal the election on Jan 6th, violated his constitutional oath in doing so and attempted to pressure/coerce/extort Pence to do likewise. Tinpot banana republic **** there... no way no how.

If you want a second, it's because he's a ******* loser. Since 2016 he's done nothing but lose and everything he touches in House/Senate races has turned to ****.

Third is because May is before November... in that trial, his abuse of national security secrets will plummet him in the polls and he'll lose by a landslide. Many on here are of the opinion that the indictment exposed all of the evidence against him... we'll see... IMO, it'll just be tip of the iceberg. Remember, the indictments are the rope-a-dope to get Trump the nomination... the trial, the MAY TRIAL, is to show the actual evidence.... he'll get his 35-40% hardcore fanboi vote, and that's a landslide loss.

There's a reason the Dem's timed the phony-baloney stuff first...

 

[KLB]

This was the salient portion of SD4L's post I was responding to:



It's a variation of the tried and true 'Trump didn't fix everything, everywhere, all at once so he is bad and [insert candidate of choice] will do better' trope

Thank you for playing, though

It really was a simple question, and you didn't answer it. Why the dodge?

Did some of his nominations get rejected?

 

[DadSmith]

Former prosecutor doubts new guilty pleas will strengthen Georgia case against Trump. | Conservative News Daily™

Three of the former president's legal advisors have entered guilty pleas in the ongoing criminal case in Fulton County.

www.conservativenewsdaily.net

NYC Judge Fines Trump $10K For Benign Campaign Comment

Judge Arthur Engoron fined former President Donald Trump for a second time Wednesday for campaigning amid the politically charged case.

thefederalist.com

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Aren't you forgetting 'advise and consent'? He can make an appointment but he can only force confirmation via a recess appointment

So he keeps the ****** appointees of Obama?

No, fire them all (the ones that don't proffer their resignations)... send all the politically appointed swamp creatures packing... which, BTW, is SOP for incoming administrations of both stripes.

It's like President 101.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

This was the salient portion of SD4L's post I was responding to:



It's a variation of the tried and true 'Trump didn't fix everything, everywhere, all at once so he is bad and [insert candidate of choice] will do better' trope

Thank you for playing, though

More like Trump didn't read basic President 101... fire (or accept resignations) of ALL prior administrations political appointees.

And if he's too stupid to do that, crying "swamp creatures" that he allowed to remain "did bad things to me", is admitting to ******** the bed from the outset.

 

[DadSmith]

Doh! I incorrectly attributed DD'es quote to you. Mea culpa.

I've only got one and only need one.

Trump attempted to steal the election on Jan 6th, violated his constitutional oath in doing so and attempted to pressure/coerce/extort Pence to do likewise. Tinpot banana republic **** there... no way no how.

If you want a second, it's because he's a ******* loser. Since 2016 he's done nothing but lose and everything he touches in House/Senate races has turned to ****.

Third is because May is before November... in that trial, his abuse of national security secrets will plummet him in the polls and he'll lose by a landslide. Many on here are of the opinion that the indictment exposed all of the evidence against him... we'll see... IMO, it'll just be tip of the iceberg. Remember, the indictments are the rope-a-dope to get Trump the nomination... the trial, the MAY TRIAL, is to show the actual evidence.... he'll get his 35-40% hardcore fanboi vote, and that's a landslide loss.

There's a reason the Dem's timed the phony-baloney stuff first...

So Trumps reelection so far wouldn't make a negative impact on your life feeling aside.

I figure @LeftyGunner would jump at this opportunity to list the negative impacts on his life if Trump got reelected feeling aside.

 

[BugI02]

Bernie's support was 35-40%, much like Trump's without the phony-baloney indictments outrage support.

There's a reason the "real" trial doesn't start until May...




IMO, the "Trump fans" are where they've always been, 40% ish. The BS NYC and Georgia indictments bump that considerably with an "outrage" cohort... per the plan.


The Trump fanboi's are still just 35-40%, IMO, the rest is nowhere near as enthusiastic nor loyal.

I don't think the GOP will repeat 2016... I do think they'll down-select to a single major GOP competitor to Trump. It remains to be seen if that'll be DeSantis, Haley or Scott.



If it remains Trump vs DeSantis, Haley and Scott... Trump wins the nomination. Even if he is pared down to just his fanbois.


Ditto... and when the May classified secrets trial starts, Trump drops like a rock and loses in a landslide if he's the nominee...

RCP polling average for the republican nomination



If ALL the other candidates except DeSantis drop out and ALL of their support goes directly to DeSantis, it would still be Trump 59.1 DeSantis 34.1

Trump +25.0 !

But thank you for showing us that TDS is still a thing

 

[SheepDog4Life]

So Trumps reelection so far wouldn't make a negative impact on your life feeling aside.

I wouldn't categorize infidelity to the Constitution as "feelings"... YMMV.

I do think Trump, in a second term without worrying about a re-election, would sign a number of gun control bills, as he was on the brink of proposing in 2019.

A rash of active shootings during such a term and I do think he would sign an AR/AK ban, among other things.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

I wouldn't categorize infidelity to the Constitution as "feelings"... YMMV.

I do think Trump, in a second term without worrying about a re-election, would sign a number of gun control bills, as he was on the brink of proposing in 2019.

A rash of active shootings during such a term and I do think he would sign an AR/AK ban, among other things.

 

[BugI02]

It really was a simple question, and you didn't answer it. Why the dodge?

Did some of his nominations get rejected?

First, do you consider Biden's nominations of Gigi Sohn to the FCC or Phil Washington to head the FAA or Jeff Marootian to the Dept of Energy or Nancy Speight to the Federal Labor Relations Board to have been rejected or just withdrawn for some other reason?

 

[foszoe]

First, do you consider Biden's nominations of Gigi Sohn to the FCC or Phil Washington to head the FAA or Jeff Marootian to the Dept of Energy or Nancy Speight to the Federal Labor Relations Board to have been rejected or just withdrawn for some other reason?

I love seeing debate club tactics in action!

 

[KLB]

First, do you consider Biden's nominations of Gigi Sohn to the FCC or Phil Washington to head the FAA or Jeff Marootian to the Dept of Energy or Nancy Speight to the Federal Labor Relations Board to have been rejected or just withdrawn for some other reason?

Why are you playing games? Did he withdraw someone because they weren't getting the support?

I, for one, am not trying to getcha on anything. I'm honestly curious from the way you guys are talking.

 

[BugI02]

I'm trying to discern the RoE

I'll make it easier, by your definition was Merrick Garland rejected as a SCOTUS nominee