"The Silent Depression" & Single-Family Homes... a great big nothingburger or...?

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  • oze

    Mow Ho
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    Ouch. And this is why I am staying put. Would love to move but not at 8.5% interest rates. Besides, the house will be paid off in a few years, will just stay put for now.
    Agreed. Moving from the People's Republic of ILL to the Fort in 2012 was one of the best decisions I've ever made. A month from now, we will have paid off our 15 year,( 3% !) mortgage 3 1/2 years early, and not have a mortgage nor rent payment for the 1st time in our lives.
     

    DoggyDaddy

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    Agreed. Moving from the People's Republic of ILL to the Fort in 2012 was one of the best decisions I've ever made. A month from now, we will have paid off our 15 year,( 3% !) mortgage 3 1/2 years early, and not have a mortgage nor rent payment for the 1st time in our lives.
    I refinanced to 15 years at 2.62% just a couple of years ago. Glad I did!
     

    HoosierLife

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    It’s not a bubble this time. All the people at <5% rates are not going to move anytime soon.

    Not enough inventory.

    Prices, even if they don’t keep going up, are still higher compared to the average salary vs any other time in history.

    This is a byproduct of inflation and the Fed messing with stuff.

    One in the same.

    It’s creating an ever increasing gap between the rich and the poor.

    No more middle class.

    Communism 101. Marxism 201.

    Are you part of the Bourgeois or Proletariat?
     

    MCgrease08

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    Prices, even if they don’t keep going up, are still higher compared to the average salary vs any other time in history.

    This is a byproduct of inflation and the Fed messing with stuff.
    I don't disagree with this, but what no one seems to be mentioning is the size of the average home these days, so it's not quite an apples to apples comparison.

    The average single family home in 1960 was just under 1300 square feet. in 1980 it was around 1600 square feet. Now it's closer to 2700.

    Bigger houses cost more.

    housing1.png


    And yes, the Fed is screwing around with interest rates, but they've been doing that for almost 100 years so that's nothing new.
     
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    Route 45

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    The average single family home in 1960 was just under 1300 square feet. in 1980 it was around 1600 square feet. Now it's closer to 2700.

    Bigger houses cost more.
    Is anyone even building a new 1300 square feet home, and if so, is it half the cost to build it as a new 2600 square feet home? I know that the smaller home is generally less expensive on the market, but it is certainly not half price.
     

    smokingman

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    I don't disagree with this, but what no one seems to be mentioning is the size of the average home these days, so it's not quite an apples to apples comparison.

    The average single family home in 1960 was just under 1300 square feet. in 1980 it was around 1600 square feet. Now it's closer to 2700.

    Bigger houses cost more.

    housing1.png


    And yes, the Fed is screwing around with interest rates, but they've been doing that for almost 100 years so that's nothing new.
    Even if houses did not increase in size the numbers would still look like they do,mostly do to the decline in actual families and house hold size in general. It will only worsen as the population ages. They will use it to put all the blame on those who are retired and further fuel hatred between generations(to help bring in their social dystopia).

    "The increase in average household size since 2010 appears to be driven by growth in the share of households with two persons, from 33% to 34%, and a decline from 40% to 38% in the share with three or more persons. The shifts in household composition over the last five decades have been striking, as the share of family households has declined and the share of nonfamily households has increased.1 Utah has the highest number of children per family with 2.32 on average."

    It is already happening from those on the left.
     

    xwing

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    Simple really, many neighborhoods are doing this. The HOA prohibits rentals period. Done and over. No rentals.

    What is really needed is a policy preventing sale to someone who doesn't intend to _occupy_ the property.

    Both are terrible ideas. HOAs are the lowest form of scum, where your neighbor can control everything you do on your own land. And more government rules and regulations are always bad. Putting more restrictive rules on top of homeowners is not the solution!
     

    Ingomike

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    Both are terrible ideas. HOAs are the lowest form of scum, where your neighbor can control everything you do on your own land. And more government rules and regulations are always bad. Putting more restrictive rules on top of homeowners is not the solution!
    This has no relevance to what an HOA actually is. HOA’s have NO power over anyone that does not want an HOA. Does an HOA have any power over your property? Of course not. Why? Because they are voluntary associations of property owners and you do not want one. Anyone that does not want a HOA can buy or build without one anytime. You did. Few people can afford a great place like you have with so many acres to insulate yourself.

    Everything in human life is compromise. Funny story, I knew folks that were purists on no restrictions on property rights, that was until their neighbors started selling off plots to build a wind farm and they suddenly wanted a say in what went on around them. They sold and moved on because there were eight windmills that were visible from their house and they felt uncomfortable. They property values went down also, so they lost money as well.
     

    Creedmoor

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    Interest rates are up and markets are stabilizing by coming down off record high sales volumes and prices. Isn't that a good thing or am I missing something?

    I mean, it seems like this thread is full of people clutching pearls on both sides.

    Scenario A) Inventory is low, prices are sky high, and homes are on the market for just a few days. INGO: "Agh, it's a bubble! The average person can't afford a house. People are putting in multiple offers and getting outbid. The entire economy is going to collapse!"

    Scenario B) Interest rates are up, sales slow down, and home values aren't rising at a record pace. INGO: Agh! It's a bubble. People can't afford a house because of interest rates. Homes are on the market for like two whole months. The entire economy is going to collapse!"
    Houses still sold when the rates were 17%
     

    xwing

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    HOA’s have NO power over anyone that does not want an HOA. Does an HOA have any power over your property? Of course not. Why? Because they are voluntary associations of property owners and you do not want one. Anyone that does not want a HOA can buy or build without one anytime. You did. Few people can afford a great place like you have with so many acres to insulate yourself.

    Well, that's the problem. Unfortunately if you want a house built in the last 20 years in a nice suburban area, you have virtually no choice. Luckily for me, I could afford to have a custom home built on rural land. But very few are in that position. For the vast majority, the choices are either "house built a really long time ago" or "HOA". My brother is in Zionsville; he had no reasonable option since all the nicer houses are in an HOA. (This was done because most towns will disallow all new development / residential zoning unless it has an HOA to pay for the roads / common areas.) Unless you have the money and the time to find your own undeveloped land and go fully custom, you are SOL. And that's a shame!
     

    Ingomike

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    most towns will disallow all new development / residential zoning unless it has an HOA to pay for the roads / common areas.)
    Where does this information come from? When a developer gets approval to build a subdivision from the government entity for that jurisdiction the developer is responsible for building the streets to the standards the entity requires, this is inspected throughout construction of said streets, and once complete and inspected the streets are dedicated to the entity and they become the government responsibility.

    I am aware of a few instances where the developers failed to build the streets to the standards and the HOA was on the hook for the neighborhood streets the HOA owned. Otherwise HOA’s have nothing to do with roads and streets…
     

    Ingomike

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    Well, that's the problem. Unfortunately if you want a house built in the last 20 years in a nice suburban area, you have virtually no choice. Luckily for me, I could afford to have a custom home built on rural land. But very few are in that position. For the vast majority, the choices are either "house built a really long time ago" or "HOA".
    True. To most folks the investment in their home is so great that the risk of the crazies doing things that would devalue it when the houses are mere feet apart is worth having an HOA. I never hear complaints from friends and colleagues about HOA’s like I do on INGO. Just a completely different mindset.
     

    Ingomike

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    Speak of the devil.

    The Indy market was undervalued and the investors saw that and acted, sadly for buyers. The kids in the article likely could not get a loan at the price paid by the investor as they are limited by appraisal valuation while the investor is not. I feel for them and their frustration…
     

    oze

    Mow Ho
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    Where does this information come from? When a developer gets approval to build a subdivision from the government entity for that jurisdiction the developer is responsible for building the streets to the standards the entity requires, this is inspected throughout construction of said streets, and once complete and inspected the streets are dedicated to the entity and they become the government responsibility.

    I am aware of a few instances where the developers failed to build the streets to the standards and the HOA was on the hook for the neighborhood streets the HOA owned. Otherwise HOA’s have nothing to do with roads and streets…
    One of the several things I don't get is that the City of Fort Wayne does not plow our subdivision streets. We pay a private contractor to do so.
     

    Ingomike

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    One of the several things I don't get is that the City of Fort Wayne does not plow our subdivision streets. We pay a private contractor to do so.
    Unfortunately this is common, it is governments choice what, if any streets they plow, and at what depth they will plow. Many subdivisions want plowed at 2 inches of snow but government only plows bus routes until the depth is six inches or greater, which causes strife in the neighborhoods because some get plowed, others don’t.
     
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    xwing

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    Where does this information come from? When a developer gets approval to build a subdivision from the government entity for that jurisdiction the developer is responsible for building the streets to the standards the entity requires, this is inspected throughout construction of said streets, and once complete and inspected the streets are dedicated to the entity and they become the government responsibility.
    It has been the case in every suburb I've looked into buying a home. This is true in both the Chicago suburbs and the Indianapolis suburbs, and was confirmed by looking at the development agreements and local history in each of those suburbs I was interested in. In all the towns I looked, the local government required HOAs as a condition of approving any new large subdivision (mostly starting in the 1990s, but some starting in the early 2000s). It's a way for the town to offload the cost of common area and roadside maintenance onto the homeowners. And a quick search shows that my experience is the norm. Just ran into this discussion in reddit. (Read their HOA subreddit for even more backing on my position of why HOAs are pure evil!) Regarding streets; often the HOA has to maintain them as private roads.
     

    Ingomike

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    It has been the case in every suburb I've looked into buying a home. This is true in both the Chicago suburbs and the Indianapolis suburbs, and was confirmed by looking at the development agreements and local history in each of those suburbs I was interested in. In all the towns I looked, the local government required HOAs as a condition of approving any new large subdivision (mostly starting in the 1990s, but some starting in the early 2000s). It's a way for the town to offload the cost of common area and roadside maintenance onto the homeowners. And a quick search shows that my experience is the norm. Just ran into this discussion in reddit. (Read their HOA subreddit for even more backing on my position of why HOAs are pure evil!) Regarding streets; often the HOA has to maintain them as private roads.
    Cannot speak about any area other than central Indiana but few HOA’s have private roads and pay to maintain them.

    If I were on a planning commission I would require the developer begin an HOA’s as part of approval for for large subdivisions. If I were a developer I would want one anyway to protect my investment as I sold off lots to keep the crazies that bought the first lots from destroying my property values on the remaining lots.
     

    firecadet613

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    It has been the case in every suburb I've looked into buying a home. This is true in both the Chicago suburbs and the Indianapolis suburbs, and was confirmed by looking at the development agreements and local history in each of those suburbs I was interested in. In all the towns I looked, the local government required HOAs as a condition of approving any new large subdivision (mostly starting in the 1990s, but some starting in the early 2000s). It's a way for the town to offload the cost of common area and roadside maintenance onto the homeowners. And a quick search shows that my experience is the norm. Just ran into this discussion in reddit. (Read their HOA subreddit for even more backing on my position of why HOAs are pure evil!) Regarding streets; often the HOA has to maintain them as private roads.

    You must be looking in the wrong places. I just left a suburb of Indy, with an HOA and the city did a great job plowing our streets.
     

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