"The Silent Depression" & Single-Family Homes... a great big nothingburger or...?

[Nugget]

Can't put weed money in the bank, but you can buy a house with weed money, sell the house, and put house money in the bank.

 

[indyartisan]

@Ingomike, I could tell you what I told my accountant,
“If 30 million accountants came across the border your bottom line would look different as well”.

 

[Ingomike]

Your quotes and what a builder pays may be somewhat skewed.
I know because I would be in competition with them if I still did work for home builders.
I quit the new construction business back in 07 because the money was not there to make it worth my efforts.
I am much happier now days not dealing with some builder telling me how much, when to be there and when I would be done.
I was talking to probably the last American drywall crew (a father and his two sons) a while back.
He said they were working for less than they were getting in the 1970s.

Drywall is one of the cheapest low skill jobs out there So it likely has gone down relative to other trades.

Where I do see a big difference is what they are willing to do. Chimney had a lot of spalling in the bricks of a full masonry chimney, contractor 1 wanted $18,000 and two weeks to rebuild the whole chimney, contractor 2 wanted $11,000 and a week to rebuild the top half, the Mexican crew charged $1000 to replace about 100 bad bricks in two days, which was exactly what was needed.

At reinspection the inspector was very complementary of the work and wanted the contact…

 

[Ingomike]

Now do 1950-2000 compared to today. Do I have to explain what a chart/graph is?

Do I have to explain your posts?

“Inflation adjusted home prices are now 85% above their average dating back to 1900.”

 

[Route 45]

Do I have to explain your posts?

“Inflation adjusted home prices are now 85% above their average dating back to 1900.”

I didn't post anything but an article with a graph. The article says that, not me.

But anyway, you think your technological marvels (LOL) make a house worth 85% more than alleged "boxes" that people lived in back in 1900?

Maybe you should look into the cost percentage of your marvels factored in to the overall cost of building a new house. I'm betting it's well south of 85%. Also, try to remember what "inflation adjusted" means.

 

[indyartisan]

Drywall is one of the cheapest low skill jobs out there So it likely has gone down relative to other trades.

Where I do see a big difference is what they are willing to do. Chimney had a lot of spalling in the bricks of a full masonry chimney, contractor 1 wanted $18,000 and two weeks to rebuild the whole chimney, contractor 2 wanted $11,000 and a week to rebuild the top half, the Mexican crew charged $1000 to replace about 100 bad bricks in two days, which was exactly what was needed.

At reinspection the inspector was very complementary of the work and wanted the contact…

I have to disagree about drywall being a low skill job.
I have seen people that have been in the business 20 years that are still not good at it.
A good drywall hanging or finishing crew Is amazing to watch.
They will make it look effortless.
Yes I am including the Mexican/Central American crews.
Your quote differential for your chimney makes my point.
Some people are willing to work for bargain prices.
So what are you going to do with that $10,000 dollars you saved?

 

[Creedmoor]

I am seeing 90% of the labor building these homes are immigrants working at “bargain” prices.
So where is all the money going?

How do you know they are working for bargin prices?

 

[foszoe]

I didn't post anything but an article with a graph. The article says that, not me.

But anyway, you think your technological marvels (LOL) make a house worth 85% more than alleged "boxes" that people lived in back in 1900?

Maybe you should look into the cost percentage of your marvels factored in to the overall cost of building a new house. I'm betting it's well south of 85%. Also, try to remember what "inflation adjusted" means.

Don't forget the value add of a modern HOA!

 

[indyartisan]

How do you know they are working for bargin prices?

You could read my post #58 or maybe if it paid what it was worth all those developers, builders, insurance agents, realtors etc. would be lining up for the jobs and the border would be shut down overnight.

 

[Route 45]

Don't forget the value add of a modern HOA!

You are right, I totally forgot about that factor. Everyone knows that all of the mailboxes being the same color in the neighborhood automatically doubles the value of the homes 200%.

 

[Creedmoor]

You could read my post #58 or maybe if it paid what it was worth all those developers, builders, insurance agents, realtors etc. would be lining up for the jobs and the border would be shut down overnight.

I did thank you. I happen to have family that have 20 -65 south of the border workers doing most of there comm/ residential irrigation installations. They pay very well,
All employees earn 8-12 weeks off paid each winter.
They learn good english like the black and white service dept men and they to move to the service dept.
I dont believe for a minute that a huge amout of skilled immigrant labor works for the cheap.

 

[indyartisan]

I did thank you. I happen to have family that have 20 -65 south of the border workers doing most of there comm/ residential irrigation installations. They pay very well,
All employees earn 8-12 weeks off paid each winter.
They learn good english like the black and white service dept men and they to move to the service dept.
I dont believe for a minute that a huge amout of skilled immigrant labor works for the cheap.

I am not talking about working for wages.
I am saying that the contractors themselves will take jobs for less money.
Com. and Irrigation work takes a much larger capital investment than your typical residential construction business, paint, drywall, masonry, framing, roofing etc.

 

[Route 45]

 

[Creedmoor]

I am not talking about working for wages.
I am saying that the contractors themselves will take jobs for less money.
Com. and Irrigation work takes a much larger capital investment than your typical residential construction business, paint, drywall, masonry, framing, roofing etc.

Well I will say, my BIL started with a beatup Ford CC and he would line up a few installations and then rent a vibratory plow and he and his nephew would haul a$$ and pull all the pipe and then return the rental and go and then finish each job.
My understanding with just talking with my sister is, they do better profit margins today then 25 yrs ago. There is a bunch more fungable cash where I'm from, than most of the State of Indiana.

 

[indyartisan]

Well I will say, my BIL started with a beatup Ford CC and he would line up a few installations and then rent a vibratory plow and he and his nephew would haul a$$ and pull all the pipe and then return the rental and go and then finish each job.
My understanding with just talking with my sister is, they do better profit margins today then 25 yrs ago. There is a bunch more fungable cash where I'm from, than most of the State of Indiana.

I would be proud of him too.
He is living the American Dream.
Building a large thriving company from humble roots.
It’s the reason so many come to the US.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

I didn't post anything but an article with a graph. The article says that, not me.

But anyway, you think your technological marvels (LOL) make a house worth 85% more than alleged "boxes" that people lived in back in 1900?

Maybe you should look into the cost percentage of your marvels factored in to the overall cost of building a new house. I'm betting it's well south of 85%. Also, try to remember what "inflation adjusted" means.

I think it would be more interesting to see square footage comparisons. Modern construction homes would seem to be much larger, on average, than yesteryear's houses.

 

[smokingman]

Single family home sales are down 31% so far in 2023,with a total of -45% in the last 12 months.
It is already worse than 2008-09.

Welcome To The Real Estate Industry Apocalypse

Higher interest rates are absolutely strangling the real estate industry, and there is no relief in sight. The sudden shift from a very low interest rate environment to a much higher interest rate environment has

theeconomiccollapseblog.com

9/28/2023

Pending Home Sales Puked In August To The Lowest On Record | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[MCgrease08]

Interest rates are up and markets are stabilizing by coming down off record high sales volumes and prices. Isn't that a good thing or am I missing something?

I mean, it seems like this thread is full of people clutching pearls on both sides.

Scenario A) Inventory is low, prices are sky high, and homes are on the market for just a few days. INGO: "Agh, it's a bubble! The average person can't afford a house. People are putting in multiple offers and getting outbid. The entire economy is going to collapse!"

Scenario B) Interest rates are up, sales slow down, and home values aren't rising at a record pace. INGO: Agh! It's a bubble. People can't afford a house because of interest rates. Homes are on the market for like two whole months. The entire economy is going to collapse!"

 

[Ingomike]

Interest rates are up and markets are stabilizing by coming down off record high sales volumes and prices. Isn't that a good thing or am I missing something?

I mean, it seems like this thread is full of people clutching pearls on both sides.

Scenario A) Inventory is low, prices are sky high, and homes are on the market for just a few days. INGO: "Agh, it's a bubble! The average person can't afford a house. People are putting in multiple offers and getting outbid. The entire economy is going to collapse!"

Scenario B) Interest rates are up, sales slow down, and home values aren't rising at a record pace. INGO: Agh! It's a bubble. People can't afford a house because of interest rates. Homes are on the market for like two whole months. The entire economy is going to collapse!"

At the end of the day there is very little difference between the positions, they both are fueled by government interference in markets with the fed and their rates to the banks…

 

[Super Bee]

Ouch. And this is why I am staying put. Would love to move but not at 8.5% interest rates. Besides, the house will be paid off in a few years, will just stay put for now.