The Republican Primary Race Is Filling Up

[BugI02]

Good catch, I missed that update. I really believe that the mainstream GOP plan is to work to guarantee a brokered convention so as to put its hand-picked nominee on the ballot. Thus they will attack whomever it is deemed necessary to keep support fragmented within the field. I REALLY hope i'm wrong but I don't see much evidence to refute the supposition. I think that kind of cynical, manipulative action will be a disaster of a proportion to make a Trump or Cruz candidacy seem like a walk in the park. Absolute Armegeddon if you ask me. The GOP will be irretrievably broken. I would like to stop short of this, especially in these dangerous (for freedom and liberty) times but I do want to see the elite's stranglehold on power and policy broken once and for all. Thus I want to see Trump or Cruz succeed in winning the nomination outright, leaving no room for backroom deals. I am prepared to advocate for, and indeed vote for, the person I believe can achieve that initial goal. If you can't clear the first hurdle, your finishing kick doesn't make much difference.

 

[JTScribe]

Good catch, I missed that update. I really believe that the mainstream GOP plan is to work to guarantee a brokered convention so as to put its hand-picked nominee on the ballot. Thus they will attack whomever it is deemed necessary to keep support fragmented within the field. I REALLY hope i'm wrong but I don't see much evidence to refute the supposition. I think that kind of cynical, manipulative action will be a disaster of a proportion to make a Trump or Cruz candidacy seem like a walk in the park. Absolute Armegeddon if you ask me. The GOP will be irretrievably broken. I would like to stop short of this, especially in these dangerous (for freedom and liberty) times but I do want to see the elite's stranglehold on power and policy broken once and for all. Thus I want to see Trump or Cruz succeed in winning the nomination outright, leaving no room for backroom deals. I am prepared to advocate for, and indeed vote for, the person I believe can achieve that initial goal. If you can't clear the first hurdle, your finishing kick doesn't make much difference.

Yup. If there's a brokered convention and we walk out of it with Jeb or Kasich, I'll not be voting GOP in 2016 or ever again.

 

[printcraft]

Yup. If there's a brokered convention and we walk out of it with Jeb or Kasich, I'll not be voting GOP in 2016 or ever again.

QFT

 

[T.Lex]

Yup. If there's a brokered convention and we walk out of it with Jeb or Kasich, I'll not be voting GOP in 2016 or ever again.

I would add Christie to that. Not that I actually think he has the pull for that, but just because he's too liberal. I also can't say "ever again." Too many variables.

I'd say the 2016 general would be a difficult gut check for me, ESPECIALLY if Sanders is the Dem.

 

[jamil]

I would add Christie to that. Not that I actually think he has the pull for that, but just because he's too liberal. I also can't say "ever again." Too many variables.

I'd say the 2016 general would be a difficult gut check for me, ESPECIALLY if Sanders is the Dem.

I think it's going to be a horrible general election. If we end up with Jeb or Rubio or Christie vs Hillary or Sanders, is that a serious choice?

I hate the two party system.

Oh, and I listened to Michael Smirconish orgasm over Bob Dole this morning. Really? That's the savior of the GOP? What the everlasting ****?

I'm starting to think moderates are nutty.

 

[T.Lex]

I think it's going to be a horrible general election. If we end up with Jeb or Rubio or Christie vs Hillary or Sanders, is that a serious choice?

I think I could support Rubio, but I get your point. The GOP could still royally screw us over.

I hate the two party system.

Yeah, but it is better than 1 or 3 party rule.

Oh, and I listened to Michael Smirconish orgasm over Bob Dole this morning. Really? That's the savior of the GOP? What the everlasting ****?

WTF? Seriously? Back in the day, I remember thinking Elizabeth Dole would be a better president than him. I think she's been out of the game for awhile now.

 

[jamil]

I think I could support Rubio, but I get your point. The GOP could still royally screw us over.


Yeah, but it is better than 1 or 3 party rule.


WTF? Seriously? Back in the day, I remember thinking Elizabeth Dole would be a better president than him. I think she's been out of the game for awhile now.

Yes. Seriously. Well, Smirconish is a pop-culture moderate. Any way the wind blows. Just like Dole.

Here's what he tweeted this morning:

"Listening to #bobdole right now @SXMPOTUS, I think with his sensibility he could compete with this crew even at age 92!"

 

[BugI02]

This guy is channeling what I'm feeling pretty well

"Wake Up, GOP"

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231028

 

[ArcadiaGP]

appealing to the lowest common denominator.

Trump says Keystone extends from Canada (where Cruz is from) to Texas (where Cruz is senator). "Is there something going on there?"

 

[T.Lex]

Latest Quinnipiac Iowa poll is pretty interesting. Worth reading the entire summary.
Iowa (IA) Poll - January 26, 2016 - Trump, Cruz Go Down To The Wir | Quinnipiac University Connecticut

Trump 31%, Cruz 29%.

A couple excerpts:

Today, 2 percent are undecided and 39 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

So about 40 (stinkin) percent aren't committed.

But, Cruz's supporters are more dedicated.

Among Iowa Republican Caucus-goers, 24 percent say they "would definitely not support" Trump, with 24 percent who would not support former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Only 12 percent say 'no way' to Cruz.

Finally, not like we really needed further evidence, but Trump's supporters skew liberal.

Trump leads Cruz:

• 29 - 21 percent among self-identified "somewhat conservative" voters;
• 37 - 6 percent among voters claiming to be "moderate" or "liberal."

 

[BugI02]

When I drill down into the tables, I find this a bit harder to draw conclusions from. To whit:

As I might expect, Cruz is beating Trump among Tea Party adherents, the born again and the very conservative but I am left to wonder how small a percentage of this sample these categories make up. I see that Trump is beating Cruz as follows:

Among men 36 to 32
Among women tied at 25 to 25
Among those with college 28 to 24
Among those without college 34 to 32
Among income <$50k 37 to 25
Among income >$100k 36 to 23
And he's leading on the economy (33 to 19) and foreign policy (37 to 24)

The areas where Cruz is leading are not insignificant, however (especially for conservatives):

Cruz leads among the Tea Party, Evangelicals and the very conservative
Cruz leads among the middle class ($50K to $100k) and the middle aged (45 to 64)
Cruz has a slight edge on handling terrorism and a strong edge in shared values and trustworthy

I don't see this as a runaway for either candidate and i'm glad that people will be able feel that their choices can make a difference. I look forward to the outcome of this contest and seeing how the players respond to victory or defeat

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Limbaugh tries to portray Trump as a limited government Conservative.

Couldn't be more wrong.

Rush Limbaugh Just Said the Most Amazingly False Thing about Donald Trump (AUDIO) | RedState

 

[jamil]

Limbaugh tries to portray Trump as a limited government Conservative.

Couldn't be more wrong.

Rush Limbaugh Just Said the Most Amazingly False Thing about Donald Trump (AUDIO) | RedState

Yeah. He's not that. It's interesting that in the section on who people absolutely won't for a particular candidate trump is tied with Jeb Bush. This is clearly a case of either you believe Trump is the best middle finger towards the establishment or you think he's not.

Personally, I've resolved to the very strong likelihood that it will be Trump vs Hillary in the general election. And I've resolved that I will vote for Trump. Least worst.

 

[BugI02]

For me the current run-up to the primaries is beginning to feel more and more like Kabuki. But I'm with you on the endgame

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Trump is turning down the next debate, and Fox is calling his bluff.

Nice, glad to see him get less air time.

 

[jamil]

Trump is turning down the next debate, and Fox is calling his bluff.

Nice, glad to see him get less air time.

I'd be surprised if that continues. That's free air time.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

I'd be surprised if that continues. That's free air time.

Now ted cruz just announced challenge to Trump: 90 min debate w/ no moderators, 1-on-1, before Iowa on Mon

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Now ted cruz just announced challenge to Trump: 90 min debate w/ no moderators, 1-on-1, before Iowa on Mon

This would be a massacre.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Fox's response. Ah Trump... petty threats from a petty man.

http://twitchy.com/2016/01/27/fox-news-accused-corey-lewandowski-of-threatening-megyn-kelly/

 

[ArcadiaGP]

So there's that.

Data: 62% of the people Donald Trump RTed this week follow multiple White Supremacist accounts