The [Current Year] General Political/Salma Hayek discussion thread, part 4!!!

[Jludo]

The International Monetary Fund

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/23/donald-trump-trade-war-china-us-imf

Donald Trump’s claim that his protectionist measures are hurting Chinamore than the US has received support from the International Monetary Fund in new forecasts showing how a fresh slowdown in the global economy has been concentrated in emerging economies.

The Washington-based IMF said the outlook was gloomier than it envisaged three months ago due to the tit-for-tat tariff war between the world’s two biggest economies, Brexit uncertainty and the impact of sanctions against Iran on oil prices.

In an update to its half-yearly World Economic Outlook, the IMF said it expected global growth to be 0.1 percentage points lower in both 2019 and 2020 than it envisaged in April, at 3.2% and 3.5% respectively.
The Fund’s country-by-country breakdown upgraded its forecast of US growth this year from 2.3% to 2.6% but downgraded China from 6.3% to 6.2%.

“In China, the negative effects of escalating tariffs and weakening external demand have added pressure to an economy already in the midst of a structural slowdown and needed regulatory strengthening to rein in high dependence on debt.”

IMF is a good or bad source? Or does it depend?

 

[DoggyDaddy]

I have a post upthread with a citation that indicates that China is considered a developing economy by the WTO, which allows them to be much more protectionist than a developed economy is under WTO rules. By some measures, China is the largest economy in the world and by others a close second to the US and they are the world's largest exporter. They are vigorously attempting to stave off any change to that status. They also often require companies doing business in China to have a Chinese partner and to transfer technology to that partner and have them participate in manufacturing the product. Chinese tariffs on US imports averaged 5.6% pre-Trade war and they manipulate their currency rather than float the renminbi. They are mercantilists pure and simple and will not pursue fair trade unless they are made to. I would take issue with your assertion that trade deficits are neither good nor bad with respect to the US. I cannot think of any first world trading partner that does not run a trade surplus with the US. Under those conditions, we're just getting hosed

I'm not gonna lie, I had to google renminbi. I thought maybe it was a serious "home row" typing error.

 

[Leadeye]

I'll believe things are getting better when I see more factories opening and people working in them. Years ago those people made things that other people in this country bought, it was a part of the economy that provided taxes. Today many people work, but in jobs that are fueled by tax money. As a young man at family gatherings I would hear about members getting jobs at places like RCA, Westinghouse, GM etc, now as an old man often napping at the same gatherings it's working for the government directly or places that feed off of tax money.

 

[Kutnupe14]

I'll believe things are getting better when I see more factories opening and people working in them. Years ago those people made things that other people in this country bought, it was a part of the economy that provided taxes. Today many people work, but in jobs that are fueled by tax money. As a young man at family gatherings I would hear about members getting jobs at places like RCA, Westinghouse, GM etc, now as an old man often napping at the same gatherings it's working for the government directly or places that feed off of tax money.

Agreed. We need to get back to being producers rather than consumers. In other news...

https://time.com/5361394/tv-factory...qDyfS9bAS7bvnYyAlr1a3OTOcCsu0Vaf_8-9eEgEJ29n0

 

[Kutnupe14]

The International Monetary Fund

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/23/donald-trump-trade-war-china-us-imf

Donald Trump’s claim that his protectionist measures are hurting Chinamore than the US has received support from the International Monetary Fund in new forecasts showing how a fresh slowdown in the global economy has been concentrated in emerging economies.

The Washington-based IMF said the outlook was gloomier than it envisaged three months ago due to the tit-for-tat tariff war between the world’s two biggest economies, Brexit uncertainty and the impact of sanctions against Iran on oil prices.

In an update to its half-yearly World Economic Outlook, the IMF said it expected global growth to be 0.1 percentage points lower in both 2019 and 2020 than it envisaged in April, at 3.2% and 3.5% respectively.
The Fund’s country-by-country breakdown upgraded its forecast of US growth this year from 2.3% to 2.6% but downgraded China from 6.3% to 6.2%.

“In China, the negative effects of escalating tariffs and weakening external demand have added pressure to an economy already in the midst of a structural slowdown and needed regulatory strengthening to rein in high dependence on debt.”

This doesn't say China is paying the Trump tariffs.

 

[Kutnupe14]

I have a post upthread with a citation that indicates that China is considered a developing economy by the WTO, which allows them to be much more protectionist than a developed economy is under WTO rules. By some measures, China is the largest economy in the world and by others a close second to the US and they are the world's largest exporter. They are vigorously attempting to stave off any change to that status. They also often require companies doing business in China to have a Chinese partner and to transfer technology to that partner and have them participate in manufacturing the product. Chinese tariffs on US imports averaged 5.6% pre-Trade war and they manipulate their currency rather than float the renminbi. They are mercantilists pure and simple and will not pursue fair trade unless they are made to. I would take issue with your assertion that trade deficits are neither good nor bad with respect to the US. I cannot think of any first world trading partner that does not run a trade surplus with the US. Under those conditions, we're just getting hosed

This is at least partially true. While China has many people that live with all the creature comforts of a state of the art society, there are damn near as many that are just as poor as anywhere you'll find on the planet. I read something some years back, that there are hundreds of millions of Chinese that have never brushed their teeth.

 

[KG1]

Agreed. We need to get back to being producers rather than consumers. In other news...

https://time.com/5361394/tv-factory...qDyfS9bAS7bvnYyAlr1a3OTOcCsu0Vaf_8-9eEgEJ29n0

This country is headed for a less productive society and more dependence on the government due to political ideology and the dependents will be allowed to consume only what the government allocates.

 

[Kutnupe14]

This country is headed for a less productive society and more dependence on the government due to political ideology and the dependents will be allowed to consume only what the government allocates.

It's been headed that way since FDR.

 

[KG1]

It's been headed that way since FDR.

Indeed it has but I’m talking about the current push toward an even greater dependency by that particular ideology where the takers will eventually outnumber the producers.

 

[Alpo]

I'd put the rentiers and the money on money guys in the "takers" category...so, you're probably correct.

 

[BugI02]

This is at least partially true. While China has many people that live with all the creature comforts of a state of the art society, there are damn near as many that are just as poor as anywhere you'll find on the planet. I read something some years back, that there are hundreds of millions of Chinese that have never brushed their teeth.

Interestingly enough; India, the sixth largest world economy in 2018 (after US, ChiCom, Japan, Germany, UK) also claims developing nation status

And this tidbit straight from the WTO horses mouth

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/devel_e/d1who_e.htm

There are no WTO definitions of “developed” and “developing” countries. Members announce for themselves whether they are “developed” or “developing” countries. However, other members can challenge the decision of a member to make use of provisions available to developing countries.

I haven't done a deep dive, but the WTO does not appear to have a mechanism in place to challenge these assertions

That a WTO member announces itself as a developing country does not automatically mean that it will benefit from the unilateral preference schemes of some of the developed country members such as the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP). In practice, it is the preference giving country which decides the list of developing countries that will benefit from the preferences.

They self-designate and it appears the only way to challenge this designation, beyond asking them to forgo it (which both have refused) is to exert leverage through unilateral agreements, which Trump is doing. These are the #2 (by some measures #1) and #6 economies in the world. That this massive wealth production has not penetrated all levels of their society sounds like a wealth inequality/internal problem. The US still has poor people, do you think we could declare developing nation status at the WTO? I think not

Once again, the mechanisms of world trade seem predatory and parasitic. They may have been needed when the US economy was head and shoulders above everyone else, but even the largest animals can be brought low by a sufficiently large infestation of bloodsuckers and parasites

Russia has been negotiating with the WTO for membership/developing nation status and the only economies that seem to be considered developed are the US, Japan and western Europe. It seems like given the mechanism's available, Trump's options to effect change were few and he's is in fact using them. I think the EU may eventually get on board although their timidity about disturbing the status quo seems likely to have to do with their much more fragile economies and their greater need for China's markets. IMO what Trump is doing vis a vis China is the last best chance to lead the west away from the economic yoke of China

 

[BugI02]

Agreed. We need to get back to being producers rather than consumers. In other news...

https://time.com/5361394/tv-factory...qDyfS9bAS7bvnYyAlr1a3OTOcCsu0Vaf_8-9eEgEJ29n0

They're television manufacturers like Apple US is an iPhone manufacturer. I agree with your assertion we need to become producers again, not just assemblers. If a corporation is totally dependent on Chinese suppliers or cheap labor, perhaps they should revisit their business plan

 

[Leadeye]

They're television manufacturers like Apple US is an iPhone manufacturer. I agree with your assertion we need to become producers again, not just assemblers. If a corporation is totally dependent on Chinese suppliers or cheap labor, perhaps they should revisit their business plan

In my line of work one of the things I do is come up with a process to turn chinese scrap parts into usable parts. When a company gets bad parts from a chinese company through a US distributor, the solution is almost always replacement, with the bad parts being scrapped. It's money maker when the cost of the process is less than the cost of a replacement part.

 

[Jludo]

Agreed. We need to get back to being producers rather than consumers. In other news...

https://time.com/5361394/tv-factory...qDyfS9bAS7bvnYyAlr1a3OTOcCsu0Vaf_8-9eEgEJ29n0

What? Tariffs don't work two ways...

 

[Jludo]

The real problem is us. consumer demand drives everything. We could vote with our feet and not but cheap Chinese crap but we like cheap stuff and expect govt to fix the problems it causes. China may be artificially manipulating currencies and subsidizing companies but the fact remains that their labor is far cheaper than ours, full stop. You simply can't square our unwillingness to pay high prices, high US wages and free trade. Right now we're attacking free trade as the problem to avoid looking in the mirror.

 

[KG1]

Elijah Cummings has extended an invitation for the President to come to the great city of Baltimore where he will be welcomed. Says he is looking for people that want to be part of a solution.

That's all well and good if it is indeed a sincere invitation of which I think Trump should seriously consider the opportunity to heal the rift instead of just launching personal critical tweets but I would also encourage the President to extend an invitation to Cummings to be a part in a legitimate effort to come up with a solution to the border crisis instead of just bad mouthing the President's and Border Patrol's efforts to deal with an increasingly overwhelming situation.

Both should take the opportunity.

 

[Kutnupe14]

Interestingly enough; India, the sixth largest world economy in 2018 (after US, ChiCom, Japan, Germany, UK) also claims developing nation status

And this tidbit straight from the WTO horses mouth

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/devel_e/d1who_e.htm



I haven't done a deep dive, but the WTO does not appear to have a mechanism in place to challenge these assertions



They self-designate and it appears the only way to challenge this designation, beyond asking them to forgo it (which both have refused) is to exert leverage through unilateral agreements, which Trump is doing. These are the #2 (by some measures #1) and #6 economies in the world. That this massive wealth production has not penetrated all levels of their society sounds like a wealth inequality/internal problem. The US still has poor people, do you think we could declare developing nation status at the WTO? I think not

Once again, the mechanisms of world trade seem predatory and parasitic. They may have been needed when the US economy was head and shoulders above everyone else, but even the largest animals can be brought low by a sufficiently large infestation of bloodsuckers and parasites

Russia has been negotiating with the WTO for membership/developing nation status and the only economies that seem to be considered developed are the US, Japan and western Europe. It seems like given the mechanism's available, Trump's options to effect change were few and he's is in fact using them. I think the EU may eventually get on board although their timidity about disturbing the status quo seems likely to have to do with their much more fragile economies and their greater need for China's markets. IMO what Trump is doing vis a vis China is the last best chance to lead the west away from the economic yoke of China

Here's that article I was thinking of....

An official survey three years ago estimated that 57 percent of rural Chinese residents -- or 500 million people -- had never brushed their teeth, a figure that spells megabucks to oral health-care companies.

https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5671774

That's crazy... so I can see why, at least partially, China is still considered a developing nation

 

[nonobaddog]

Indeed it has but I’m talking about the current push toward an even greater dependency by that particular ideology where the takers will eventually outnumber the producers.

Since 2014 - over half of all Americans get money/benefits from the government.

 

[Jludo]

Since 2014 - over half of all Americans get money/benefits from the government.

Does that include social security?

 

[nonobaddog]

Does that include social security?

I think that includes social security and everything.