Inflation is on the horizon

[d.kaufman]

That $3.00 a gallon gas is not too far off. Saw a station today advertising it at $2.98! That’s regular.

Was happy to get the check from the government so that I could turn it directly over to the county for part of my annual property rent… I mean property tax. Home ownership? Not in Indiana.

$3.09 @ some stations up here. All within 10 miles of a major refinery

 

[BigRed]

There are costs to shutting down the economy.

There are costs to believing state defends Liberty.

 

[bwframe]

 

[bwframe]

 

[bwframe]

Sale priced meat +/- 50% higher than last few years at this time of year...

 

[rhamersley]

Think that horizon has gotten mighty close…

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Car prices are nuts right now, and projected to stay that way until 2023 at the earliest. My Camaro how has a trade in value of almost exactly what I paid for it retail. Some vehicles that traditionally hold value very well, Jeep Wranglers for example, are within $1-$3k of their original MSRP at 3-4 years old. I saw a Rubicon sell for *over* original MSRP.

 

[walleyepw]

Currently, with the semiconductor supply issues, car prices are exceptionally high. People still want new autos, but there are limited supplies. I expect when the semiconductors supply improves we should see a glut of autos.

 

[Magyars]

With the various logjams in the JIT inventory/delivery/economy....
I continue to believe it's going to get much worse.

 

[Magyars]

 

[bwframe]

Currently, with the semiconductor supply issues, car prices are exceptionally high. People still want new autos, but there are limited supplies. I expect when the semiconductors supply improves we should see a glut of autos.

Maybe a glut of new autos? Will the prices of used autos go down though? Not if we compare "cash for clunkers." We have never recovered to reasonably priced autos from that debacle, used or new.

 

[WebSnyper]

Currently, with the semiconductor supply issues, car prices are exceptionally high. People still want new autos, but there are limited supplies. I expect when the semiconductors supply improves we should see a glut of autos.

I read something recently that at least one of the chip makers was taking steps to not flood the market. Basically taking a bit of a short term hit, but for the purpose of keeping their prices "stable" ... basically not going to drop a ton of supply to crater the prices. I'll have to find the article to post it.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Maybe a glut of new autos? Will the prices of used autos go down though? Not if we compare "cash for clunkers." We have never recovered to reasonably priced autos from that debacle, used or new.

Cash for Clunkers didn't remove nearly enough cars from the marketplace to have any long term effect on used car prices. Less than 700k vehicles were destroyed, and were destroyed at a 1:1 ratio for new cars put on the road...which then increased the used car supply in later years. Prices bumped up for about 6 months and then receeded to normal. 2 years afterward and the prices on used cars were *lower* than pre-Cash For Clunkers. At this point, even if every single vehicle destroyed by C4C had stayed on the road along with it's replacement and was still running today, the supply would be 0.3% higher than it is now.

That's not to argue that C4C was a good use of money or a good project, but the notion it affected used car prices long term doesn't pencil out and insitutions as varied as MIT and NADA have reached the same conclusion. After the intial rush, it was a wash.

 

[bwframe]

Cash for Clunkers didn't remove nearly enough cars from the marketplace to have any long term effect on used car prices. Less than 700k vehicles were destroyed, and were destroyed at a 1:1 ratio for new cars put on the road...which then increased the used car supply in later years. Prices bumped up for about 6 months and then receeded to normal. 2 years afterward and the prices on used cars were *lower* than pre-Cash For Clunkers. At this point, even if every single vehicle destroyed by C4C had stayed on the road along with it's replacement and was still running today, the supply would be 0.3% higher than it is now.

That's not to argue that C4C was a good use of money or a good project, but the notion it affected used car prices long term doesn't pencil out and insitutions as varied as MIT and NADA have reached the same conclusion. After the intial rush, it was a wash.

Buyers And Dealers Squeezed By A Lack Of Older Used Cars

Younger and less-affluent motorists are having a difficult time finding older and more affordable used vehicles on dealers’ lots.

www.forbes.com

Cash for Clunkers: Yet Another Way Government Increased the Cost of Living | Mises Institute

No economy is made better off by destroying existing resources. But that's what "cash for clunkers" tried to do, while only driving up the price of

mises.org

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Buyers And Dealers Squeezed By A Lack Of Older Used Cars

Younger and less-affluent motorists are having a difficult time finding older and more affordable used vehicles on dealers’ lots.

www.forbes.com

Cash for Clunkers: Yet Another Way Government Increased the Cost of Living | Mises Institute

No economy is made better off by destroying existing resources. But that's what "cash for clunkers" tried to do, while only driving up the price of

mises.org

Your Forbes article says "cars 8-10 years old are in short supply" and was written in 2017. Cash for clunkers was in 2009, 8 years prior to the article. You think enough 0-3 year old cars were taken out of circulation in exchange for a $4500 voucher to cause that shortage? That's nonsense. Any car 0-3 years old would have had a higher market value than the voucher amount. They list a host of factors, including rental fleets and consumer habits that influenced the market.

The second guy, (do you know what Mises University is, btw?) doesn't even bother with numbers. Probably because even for a graduate of just a prestigious university, and assuming 100% of the cash for clunkers cars would still be on the road today, it's impossible for .03% difference in supply to affect the prices seen.

 

[Cameramonkey]

Tony Katz was talking about crazy car prices yesterday. Anecdotal evidence from listeners:

New cars selling at or above MSRP. No discounts. Period.
One caller was told MSRP, signed contract today with delivery in 6-8 months, *OR* MSRP +$5,000 surcharge for the new car delivered within a week.
Another was told there WOULD be a multiple thousand dollar surcharge because they had to track one down and have it delivered from another dealer far away.

Crazy.

My lease is up in July. I was wanting to turn it in. But I think I'll end up buying out the lease and dealing with the minor things I dont like about it. (assuming this nutzoid crap is still going on since they are saying chips wont be in full supply until fall of 2022)

 

[foszoe]

Appreciating cars. Now that is something I never thought I would see in my lifetime. My diesel truck as an investment.

 

[phylodog]

Appreciating cars. Now that is something I never thought I would see in my lifetime. My diesel truck as an investment.

It is at this point, that's no doubt.

It takes a very large scale, coordinated effort to **** up a country as badly as Biden, Harris, Pelosi & Schumer have done, they should be proud. I try really, really hard not to hate anyone or wish them ill will but there is nothing too painful, too horrific, too disgusting or too embarrassing that can happen to these ****ing ******** that would come close to being as severe as they deserve.

 

[actaeon277]

It is at this point, that's no doubt.

It takes a very large scale, coordinated effort to **** up a country as badly as Biden, Harris, Pelosi & Schumer have done, they should be proud. I try really, really hard not to hate anyone or wish them ill will but there is nothing too painful, too horrific, too disgusting or too embarrassing that can happen to these ****ing ******** that would come close to being as severe as they deserve.

While I agree with you, I'd like to point out that the chip shortage is because of China.
Well, that and because everyone wants cheap stuff, so all our stuff is made in China.

 

[JettaKnight]

While I agree with you, I'd like to point out that the chip shortage is because of China.
Well, that and because everyone wants cheap stuff, so all our stuff is made in China.

China and SE Asia in general. And this chip shortage was happening before Biden took office.