Coronovirus IV

[Ziggidy]

 

[Ingomike]

OK...

look here: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku/data


United States: All Sexes: All Ages: Full set from Feb 1 to May 16.
COVID-19 deaths: 68,998
Influenza deaths: 6,223


Sure COVID-19 deaths may less in later seasons (God willing), but right now, it's no beuno.
Flu deaths may be 50,000-80,000 per season (but it seems high given this data set), but the data I presented is "apples to apples", that is to say is over the same time period.

Even if there's a false attribution of gunshot and alcohol deaths to COVID-19, there's no way it could possibly make up the huge number of deaths.

When all this first started the argument was 20-40K then the goalposts moved to 60, and now we're up to 80K?
Fishy numbers from all sides, I say.

WTF? Maybe I should have said seasonal flu deaths of 11,000-95,000 because that is the range on the CDC page. The CDC estimates are 24,000-62,000 this season. Where the heck did 6k come from?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

 

[JettaKnight]

It's almost like flu and pneumonia deaths this season are generally all being attributed to COVID19 (whether that is accurate/appropriate or not - as a co-morbidity, it could be).

Questions for you, though: are 6,000 deaths normal for the flu in a given season? If not, why are you using that number to compare "normal" flu to COVID-19, and what does a "normal" flu season look like?

(Hint: 6,000 deaths is not a normal flu season. It is about 1/10 of a normal flu season. 60,000 - 80,000 deaths is fairly normal for a flu season. So, even at 100,000, COVID-19 would represent a fairly bad flu season - and I am on record not believing that 100,000 number. I suspect that it is inflated anywhere from about 10 - 30%.)

I comparing the two in the same situation, over the same period of time.


This 60K-80K that's touted as "fairly normal" for a "season" seems apples to oranges.


The 6,000 flu deaths aren't for a "season" it's for this specific time frame 2020-02-01 to 2020-05-19; a time frame when drastic measures were being taken to limit the spread of germs, so if that number is low, then that's the obvious, simple reason, not a conspiratorial attribution to COVID-19 because liberals hate America. (Not that you're saying that, Chip, but others here are.)

 

[Ingomike]

I comparing the two in the same situation, over the same period of time.


This 60K-80K that's touted as "fairly normal" for a "season" seems apples to oranges.


The 6,000 flu deaths aren't for a "season" it's for this specific time frame 2020-02-01 to 2020-05-19; a time frame when drastic measures were being taken to limit the spread of germs, so if that number is low, then that's the obvious, simple reason, not a conspiratorial attribution to COVID-19 because liberals hate America. (Not that you're saying that, Chip, but others here are.)

And since only the most naive among us believes that C-19 numbers are not inflated, particularly by adding flu deaths, I consider your post proof of that, not that the C-19 effect is so much worse than the flu effect. Limiting flu deaths to this season is unnecessarily restricting the data.

 

[JettaKnight]

I think that's a horrible presentation of the data. And, one thing to note is the "footnote" (really a sidenote) that says cells with data in the 1-9 range have been suppressed due to confidentiality issues. So, I guess that means that data isn't the actual numbers?
In those blank cells, the number is greater than zero and less than ten. And if the number is that small, it's hard to do and sort of reliable statistics, no?

For instance, Indiana-Male-1-4 years - there's no data in Pneumonia and Pneumonia/Influenza/Covid, but there are 56 total deaths for that cohort. It makes no sense.
I assume that's death from other causes, like vehicle collision, electrocution....


Aggregating these.

The flu deaths, unless something changed this year because of COVID, are also estimated. That is, the 6k/40k/60k is all modeling. The "normal" years are whatever the CDC has historically said, based on inaccurate reporting and then math.

And, as I think NNBD alluded to, the same precautions against COVID also mitigate the flu. In the absence of COVID, if we had done the same things to combat the flu, then flu deaths (whatever number that might be) would also be down.

Even if you lump COVID-19 and Influenza, and try and compare it against the touted 80K deaths per season... account for the smaller time frame.... account for the increased health measures of the public... yeah, this Coronavirus is still a SOB.

 

[JettaKnight]

WTF? Maybe I should have said seasonal flu deaths of 11,000-95,000 because that is the range on the CDC page. The CDC estimates are 24,000-62,000 this season. Where the heck did 6k come from?

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Ah, I see what you're looking at.


It seems like almost all of those deaths for general influenza 2019-2020 occurred before this SIP time frame.

And since only the most naive among us believes that C-19 numbers are not inflated, particularly by adding flu deaths, I consider your post proof of that, not that the C-19 effect is so much worse than the flu effect. Limiting flu deaths to this season is unnecessarily restricting the data.

Inflated? Yes they are, but not inflated enough to make up the difference.

 

[Ingomike]

Who said it?

There is no reason to be walking around wearing a mask. When you are in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel better, and might even block a droplet,” he said with almost an eyeroll, “but it’s not providing the perfect protection people think it is, and often there are unintended consequences…”

 

[nonobaddog]

This is not a normal flu year. In a normal flu year the number of deaths is an estimate. The number of flu deaths will be lower this year.
The reasons are many and obvious...

Not shaking hands
Not hugging or touching (except for biden)
Wearing masks
Frequently washing hands
Physical distancing
Working from home
Restaurants closed or take-out only
Cleaning contact surfaces frequently
No large clustering
Less small clustering
Schools closed
Sporting events canceled
Churches closed
Gyms closed
Bars closed
Not taking airplane trips
Avoiding hotels/motels
Postponing surgeries
Avoiding ER visits and doctor appointments
Avoiding taking cruises
Hoarding toilet paper*
Postponing dentist visits
Beaches closed
Businesses closed
Contactless grocery shopping (pickup or delivery)
Plexiglas shields at checkouts
Limiting customers in open stores

So OF COURSE flu deaths are lower. These same reasons are reducing the chinese virus deaths. Without all these reasons I think it is obvious that the flu deaths would be higher this year and also the chinese virus deaths would be higher.

The fact that these deaths are lower is a good thing when taken in isolation but some of the measures used to achieve these lower deaths are doing tremendous damage to the economy of the country, the economy of too many businesses and the economy of too many individuals.

 

[Alpo]

The beatings will continue until morale improves

Please make the bad men stop posting large numbers, Mommy.

 

[JettaKnight]

Who said it?

When did this person say it?


It's almost as if an expert receives new information, processes that information, then adjust accordingly...


That's the very textbook definition of having an open mind.


You want people to be open minded, to not be blind sheep following old or misleading facts, then when someone shows they can see new facts and adapt you want to slap them down?!

 

[Ingomike]

Here is a good explanation of my thinking on the mask issue. They are exploiting fear to gain power and masks symbolize visually that fear and the giving up of Liberty...

...cloth masks are largely symbolic. The science hasn’t changed, but the agenda has.


Implementing mandatory mask policies across a society of 300 million because it makes some people feel better is absurd on its face. But the policy makes a lot of sense if you understand its purpose and usefulness to shift the American mindset.


Mandatory masks are a critical predicate conditioning us to accept abuses of our liberty. Mandatory masking provides the foundation on which governments continue to justify emergency measures and rule by executive fiat, and it creates a national mood of consent that America will accept indefinite government expansion because we face a “new normal.”


Molly McCann is Of Counsel with Sidney Powell, P.C.

 

[JettaKnight]

Here is a good explanation of my thinking on the mask issue. They are exploiting fear to gain power and masks symbolize visually that fear and the giving up of Liberty...

OK, so now you're taking your medical advice from a lawyer writing an opinion piece on a right-wing outlet?

If I was Leadeye: Always follow the money.

She makes money by writing opinions that are widely accepted by conservatives. If she wants to keep making money doing that, then she better write about how masks are dumb, and a government plot to steal underwear for profit.

 

[Alpo]

Stealing underwear is a government conspiracy to get blood, urine and fecal samples in one easy package from everyone!

 

[HoughMade]

OK, so now you're taking your medical advice from a lawyer writing an opinion piece on a right-wing outlet?

If I was Leadeye: Always follow the money.

She makes money by writing opinions that are widely accepted by conservatives. If she wants to keep making money doing that, then she better write about how masks are dumb, and a government plot to steal underwear for profit.

There are people out there who simply compare the size of a single virus and the size of a single layer of weave in a mask and think they have made a point.

I mentioned it earlier...people decide what they want to believe, then find a way to support it. It's just good science.

 

[Ingomike]

When did this person say it?


It's almost as if an expert receives new information, processes that information, then adjust accordingly...


That's the very textbook definition of having an open mind.


You want people to be open minded, to not be blind sheep following old or misleading facts, then when someone shows they can see new facts and adapt you want to slap them down?!

I Want the truth, but since that is not attainable in today's world I look at what the speaker had to gain when he said it vs. when he revised his statement. Undeniably C-19 has been politicized and so have the doctors and scientists on the stage with politicians...

 

[Ingomike]

OK, so now you're taking your medical advice from a lawyer writing an opinion piece on a right-wing outlet?

If I was Leadeye: Always follow the money.

She makes money by writing opinions that are widely accepted by conservatives. If she wants to keep making money doing that, then she better write about how masks are dumb, and a government plot to steal underwear for profit.

And those pushing mask wear are taking medical advice from left-wing politicians who want ever more fiat power...

 

[T.Lex]

So, with the re-opening of society, is there a consensus whether politicians will suppress COVID death numbers to make it look like the re-opening is going well?

Or will they be inflated to seek a return-to-quarantine?

Or is this one of those things that whatever happens, it will support the conspiracy theory.

BTW, some states have been caught out with funny numbers that make things look better than they actually are, to support re-opening.

 

[JettaKnight]

I Want the truth, but since that is not attainable in today's world I look at what the speaker had to gain when he said it vs. when he revised his statement. Undeniably C-19 has been politicized and so have the doctors and scientists on the stage with politicians...

Sure you do.

 

[nonobaddog]

Here is a good explanation of my thinking on the mask issue. They are exploiting fear to gain power and masks symbolize visually that fear and the giving up of Liberty...

It is kind of funny in a sad way.
Medical masks used to be a simple and effective way of reducing the pathogens spewing out of one's mouth hole and a respirator would reduce the pathogens being sucked in as well.
Now that the use of much less effective rags over the face has been introduced, the mask has been changed into a symbol - sort of like gang colors showing which side of the divide one cheers for.

 

[HoughMade]

So, with the re-opening of society, is there a consensus whether politicians will suppress COVID death numbers to make it look like the re-opening is going well?

Or will they be inflated to seek a return-to-quarantine?

Or is this one of those things that whatever happens, it will support the conspiracy theory.

BTW, some states have been caught out with funny numbers that make things look better than they actually are, to support re-opening.

Yes.

...but returning to lockdown is not a viable option regardless.