Coronavirus II

[Leadeye]

Sine this started I've wondered if the virus wasn't a project engineered for something like DNA research. Nothing with evil intent, but just a tool that got out due to sloppy lab or production practices. My experiences with chinese chemical manufacturing has been that it's a 30 foot system, maybe their biological stuff is the same way. People trying to make a buck and got careless.

 

[hoosierdoc]

Follow the money, or in this case where is it to get? Would many turn down $10 million to write that book?

when you put your life at risk because you want to help people despite not having to, I think you've shown you care about more than personal enrichment

 

[JettaKnight]

Follow the money, or in this case where is it to get? Would many turn down $10 million to write that book?

Money ain't everything. I'm guessing he's got more fulfilling things to do, and $10M to him, isn't the same as $10M to me.

Besides, writing a book doesn't sound that enjoyable.

 

[Alpo]

Well. In Italy it DID decimate. Technically.

Seriously, I'd be very reluctant to call it an apocalypse. That means total, final destruction. Even if the worse case happens, it's not "an apocalypse". Probably the most descriptive adjective to describe our situation is pandemic.

Ahhhh. I suppose the original Greek interpretation and definition escaped you.

Foszoe will be along soon to explain, I'm sure.

But, a person who lives in a county named after the gentleman below can't always bat 1000.

 

[Nevermore]

I am not involved in homeschooling in any way, too old.
It seems a natural destination for the antivaxxers and conspiracy theorists but are you seeing an increase in the number of "normal" people joining the ranks as well?
That is what I had thought but don't know if that is correct.

Homeschooling has been a growing movement since, depending on the state/locale in question, the late 80's-early 90's. Stereotypes aside, you actually get people all across the spectrum in homeschooling including whole co-ops (largely on the coasts, admittedly) full of pro-LGBTQRTUVWXYZ folks or even basically hippie communes. My experience as a homeschooled child here in Indiana generally tended towards most people being Christian and wanting to escape the moral and educational failings of their local school districts.

Funny aside: the only time I visited my local high-school was either SATs or to request permission from the school (which had no hand in educating, raising, or caring for me in the slightest) for a work permit. Can't remember who had to sign for me, but it was a bit of comedy for both of us since the usual perfunctory questions (is this student able to cope with work and school etc) were rendered moot by the lack of data on the admin's part.

 

[jamil]

The percentage of the Italian population that has been infected (as of 8:00 PM last night) is .1687%, so nowhere near being decimated - technically, and .0192% of the population has died from the Chinese flu. When they get up to about 6 MILLION cases, they will be decimated.

Oh, I don't mean it decimated their whole population. Just 10% of the ones who tested positive.

 

[nonobaddog]

But, a person who lives in a county named after the gentleman below can't always bat 1000.

(totally obnoxious gif omitted)

Lawson county?

 

[T.Lex]

What country was named after Floyd Lawson?

Laws-emborg.

 

[Bennettjh]

I skipped the last few pages.

A few observations:
- NY/NYC are going to get worse. They have only diagnosed a small fraction of the population, and I can't even see any real numbers about how many they've tested. That 30k vent number could end up being best case for them.

- But, that doesn't mean it'll get apocalyptically worse everywhere. Here in the midwest, with lower density and more practical people, we have capacity and we're likely able to get a handle on it relative early. Well, it WILL get worse here, but this idea that we are an "emerging hotspot" is deceptive. We're doing a shton of testing (which is good) partly because we already had bio-medical infrastructure here.

- The trendline for day-over-day deaths and percentage-increase in total deaths are actually shallowing. That is, nearly horizontal. Yes, that's counterintuitive because we did set another record high (nationally) in deaths yesterday. But, the point is that it is not as big of an increase as in the past. That's kinda the first indication that we might be "flattening the curve." Maybe. We are getting into the meat of the post-shutdown incubation/critical care period. We'll be getting a better understanding of how those measure may have reduced transmission.

- With so many people out of work, the charities are really ramping up. That's another part of Americana - helping our neighbors. Hopefully, there will be enough resources in those institutions to tide people over. If not, and the gov't starts distributing, that's a bad sign. Resource scarcity resonates with our reptilian-level brain.

Disclaimer: this post contains no hysteria or panicking. If you feel triggered, take 3 deep breaths and log off.

Thanks for the update, T.Lex. I appreciate your sensible updates.

 

[Libertarian01]

I was just reading that Florida Governor DeSantis won't allow passengers to disembark from two (2) cruise ships in port.

Link: https://apnews.com/5cc34440ec62c9394ad05c4fc8cc4dfe

To my thinking this is just not right. First, there are American citizens on board! They should be allowed off immediately, and then put in quarantine for the standard time.

But for all other citizens they also need to be allowed to disembark to receive the maximum chances of avoiding infection, receiving needed medical care, and surviving. This then sets a very strong precedent that we accepted citizens from other nations, so other nations should accept American citizens who may be seeking refuge and succor in foreign nations. Otherwise, other nations could easily justify turning non-citizens away.

And finally, it shouldn't need to be said, but it's just the right, moral thing to do. To help someone in need and desperate for hope, just getting them out of that dire circumstance is just plain right. Under any moral or religious code anywhere it is right to help people, even if it is doing nothing more than helping get out of harms way.

Regards,

Doug

 

[T.Lex]

Ok. So here's a bit of a disconcerting observation I just made: the mortality rate in the US has been creeping up since 3/23. I suspect it is related to the prevalence of NY numbers, and they may be heavily prioritizing their testing on critical/at risk patients. So, those most likely to die are most likely to get tested.

But, that also tracks the experience in Europe that as more diagnoses are made, more deaths are related to the virus. Something to watch.

 

[Libertarian01]

Ok. So here's a bit of a disconcerting observation I just made: the mortality rate in the US has been creeping up since 3/23. I suspect it is related to the prevalence of NY numbers, and they may be heavily prioritizing their testing on critical/at risk patients. So, those most likely to die are most likely to get tested.

But, that also tracks the experience in Europe that as more diagnoses are made, more deaths are related to the virus. Something to watch.

This just makes sense. Testing kits are still very limited and I don't see doctors offices wanting to "waste" a test on everyone who presents with very mild symptoms. The tests will initially be reserved for the sick who are very sick and the need to know a diagnosis is critical.

Ergo, testing high risk patients who are already presenting a serious condition will result in higher mortality ratios. As testing becomes more available and cheaper, those with less serious conditions will be tested and the mortality statistics will drop like a rock.

Doug

 

[T.Lex]

This just makes sense. Testing kits are still very limited and I don't see doctors offices wanting to "waste" a test on everyone who presents with very mild symptoms. The tests will initially be reserved for the sick who are very sick and the need to know a diagnosis is critical.

Ergo, testing high risk patients who are already presenting a serious condition will result in higher mortality ratios. As testing becomes more available and cheaper, those with less serious conditions will be tested and the mortality statistics will drop like a rock.

Doug

I also think private labs are doing alot of testing, of first responders and medical staff. Those aren't getting counted (at least not regularly).

 

[jamil]

Ok. So here's a bit of a disconcerting observation I just made: the mortality rate in the US has been creeping up since 3/23. I suspect it is related to the prevalence of NY numbers, and they may be heavily prioritizing their testing on critical/at risk patients. So, those most likely to die are most likely to get tested.

But, that also tracks the experience in Europe that as more diagnoses are made, more deaths are related to the virus. Something to watch.

It stands to reason, if you decrease the denominator, even as the numerator increases, you'll have a larger ratio. I'm not sure what problem they were trying to solve with the new strategy of limiting testing those whose treatment would change as a result of knowing if it's CV. I thought we had plenty of tests at that point, for people who were just suspected they'd have it. Maybe they were trying to solve the problem of mile-long lines for the drive-through test stations.

As I posted earlier, Floyd county did a bunch of testing and found that 50 out of 200 results were positive. I dunno. I don't think we should really give a flying **** what the numerator is. I think we should test as many people as we can. And if the new test really only takes 5-15 minutes, on the spot, they should mass produce those and get them out. Sure. While supplies are short, prioritize. But the goal should be to get to a place where we test as many people as possible.

 

[hoosierdoc]

Ok. So here's a bit of a disconcerting observation I just made: the mortality rate in the US has been creeping up since 3/23. I suspect it is related to the prevalence of NY numbers, and they may be heavily prioritizing their testing on critical/at risk patients. So, those most likely to die are most likely to get tested.

But, that also tracks the experience in Europe that as more diagnoses are made, more deaths are related to the virus. Something to watch.

as it becomes more prevalent people feel more confident blaming deaths on the virus because "it's obvious they have it", except many times they don't. I always question death stats in these times. how do they know immediately what the patient had?

despite massive uptick in testing our. number of positives have been flat for a few days

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

[jamil]

I also think private labs are doing alot of testing, of first responders and medical staff. Those aren't getting counted (at least not regularly).

That's the problem with the Foyd county numbers. The testing I just posted about with the 50 positives, was done by Baptist East. But the totals for Floyd county as of now are only 21 positive.

 

[HoughMade]

as it becomes more prevalent people feel more confident blaming deaths on the virus because "it's obvious they have it", except many times they don't. I always question death stats in these times. how do they know immediately what the patient had?

despite massive uptick in testing our. number of positives have been flat for a few days

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Our voice of reason and from the trenches. Thanks!

 

[T.Lex]

despite massive uptick in testing our. number of positives have been flat for a few days

Sorry, doc, but there's a value to being precise with this. The daily increases in positives has been flat, ~20k per day. That suggests that the increased testing is yielding the same number of positives per day. Hopefully that's a result of contact tracing and that kind of thing. Ideally, it means that we're getting a handle on the universe of actual infected, and "new" infections, rather than just identifying cases in the wild.

 

[Ingomike]

when you put your life at risk because you want to help people despite not having to, I think you've shown you care about more than personal enrichment

Money ain't everything. I'm guessing he's got more fulfilling things to do, and $10M to him, isn't the same as $10M to me.

Besides, writing a book doesn't sound that enjoyable.

I am not impugning the guy, just predicting something that seem obvious to me. Recent history is littered with the like, most recently John Bolton, what a retirement package.

 

[JettaKnight]

I am not impugning the guy, just predicting something that seem obvious to me. Recent history is littered with the like, most recently John Bolton, what a retirement package.

John Bolton's a politician. You expect those sort games from those sorts of people.