22LR, what happened this time, they are everywhere

[nonobaddog]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spam_Jam

.

 

[nonobaddog]

https://www.spam.com/museum

 

[BE Mike]

I don't and never have blamed "hoarders". I blamed retailers for refusing to raise prices. And then I blamed the people that whine and moan about retailers raising prices because they are the main reason that prices don't rise at the retail level. Because of whiny consumers, a typical retailer facing a shortage cannot do the right thing and raise their prices to reflect the revised market, lest you hold a grudge for the next 30 years.

Cheap and abundant are mutually exclusive when these shortages occur. You want abundant? It won't be cheap (ever wonder why the pricier match ammo is the only stuff left? Well duh). You want cheap? It won't be abundant. It will be backordered and perpetually out of stock. THAT'S HOW MARKETS WORK.

A business that raises prices does us all a favor for a couple reasons. First, the high prices instantly mean no margin on flipping. Nobody will be able to come in and buy out all the inventory and flip it because there's no arbitrage. If the selling price is the market price, there's no chance to flip for profit. This then means that ammo will be available on the shelf.

THAT is critical-- having ammo on the shelf. Why? Because it shows people there's no shortage. It ENDS the panic buying. It BEGINS the recovery of prices to "normal" levels. Do you remember how when .22LR came back, it didn't come back at $20/brick? NOPE. When it came back, you were lucky to find crap like T-bolt for $40/brick. And then slowly prices fell. And then you started to find some Winchester and maybe even a little CCI. And people who never would have tried Aguila did and realized it's actually pretty good. And prices fell some more. (research the history of bank panics and you'll see the same story: the way to end a run is for people to feel like there's no shortage)

But it only happened because eventually higher prices curbed demand enough that supply could catch up. Ask the ammo makers and they'll all tell you: they were running flat out and making as much .22LR as ever. It was NOT a change in supply that caused the shortage, it was entirely a spike in demand. Which a high price-- if allowed by whiny consumers to actually happen-- would have ended the shortage much sooner. In the same way that the gasoline "gougers" helped get Louisiana back on its feet by providing much needed fuel to the recovery effort. You cannot meddle with a market price without ending up worse off.

And last I checked, we still have multiple places competing for business. CTD can ask $32 a round for all I care. There's no shortage of better places to buy ammo. You don't want to pay their stupid high prices? Go elsewhere.

If I were a new shooter and unaware of the whine-then-dine cycles of the ammo market, I sure as heck would rather have ammo available at elevated price than have nothing on the shelf at all. Odds are a new gun owner will only be buying a little bit anyway.

You want ammo available on demand? I suggest you buy a press and some supplies and get busy once things get sane a little. That's what I did. After the last shortage, I learned a simple lesson: never again. EVER. I will NEVER be without basic supplies needed to feed my rifles or pistols. What I can't make, I stock. Now, I don't have to have a double-wide full in order for me to full adequately supplied, but I won't fault someone who feels they must. And I am more than willing to help out a new gun owner coming into this at one of the worst possible times (provided he's willing to shoot my handloads). I will happily donate a starter kit of ammo and even teach the basic reloading I know how to do.

We seem to understand economics a bit in other cases-- we watch Amazon move prices all over on a daily basis. But with ammo, we lose our minds. Businesses that cater to our collective insanity don't help us out.

Cheaper Than Dirt is doing just what you suggest and has in the past. That seems to please you, but apparently not a lot of other folks. I can only assume that ignorant new shooters are the ones that keep CTD in business. Here are some reviews: https://www.resellerratings.com/store/Cheaper_Than_Dirt

 

[Floivanus]

Cheaper Than Dirt is doing just what you suggest and has in the past. That seems to please you, but apparently not a lot of other folks. I can only assume that ignorant new shooters are the ones that keep CTD in business. Here are some reviews: https://www.resellerratings.com/store/Cheaper_Than_Dirt

Which doesn’t change a bit of the fact that; the man you quoted is 100% correct, people can mew all they want, the market is supposed to correct itself, is $1,000 for a case of 223 right? No, but if it flies off the shelf at $250, then $300 might keep it on the shelf longer and stop the panic and hoarding mentality that helps trigger further panic.

other places have doubled or tripled their prices, added limits, or other factors to try and curb the run on ammo.

 

[BE Mike]

Which doesn’t change a bit of the fact that; the man you quoted is 100% correct, people can mew all they want, the market is supposed to correct itself, is $1,000 for a case of 223 right? No, but if it flies off the shelf at $250, then $300 might keep it on the shelf longer and stop the panic and hoarding mentality that helps trigger further panic.

other places have doubled or tripled their prices, added limits, or other factors to try and curb the run on ammo.

So, there is a theory that profiteering might stop the panic and hoarding? I think profiteering only puts more money in the pockets of greedy people and companies. Trying to sugar coat it doesn't make it more palatable. Companies like CTD aren't doing it to be magnanimous.

 

[ljk]

I learned from the ammo shortage after Sandy Hook, over the following years I accumulated 2 Dillon XL650 and an RL550.

Who don't people reload and buy 1000's of rounds at jacked up prices, I don't understand.

 

[nonobaddog]

Reloader Special

[h=1]"22LR Primed Casings .22 lr primed brass 2000 ct NR"[/h]
This is listed on GB. I don't think I am supposed to put a link to this on here.
Does anybody actually reload 22LR?

I can see it now..... 22LR +P+ 55gr FMJ at 2000 fps

 

[Ingomike]

So, there is a theory that profiteering might stop the panic and hoarding? I think profiteering only puts more money in the pockets of greedy people and companies. Trying to sugar coat it doesn't make it more palatable. Companies like CTD aren't doing it to be magnanimous.

And just why the hell would we try to cover for CTD? We are trying to share economic reality...

It is not theory, it is economic reality. No one said they were being magnanimous, rather that their self interest helps others. Are you denying that an increased price reduces demand? That it slows the guy that has some from topping off? That it curbs flippers by removing profit margin?

We have to get past our normalcy bias that stuff is always available and always at the best price. And we must get past the emotional responses to those changing markets, stop using words like greedy and gouging to describe markets responding to supply and demand

 

[Mark106]

And just why the hell would we try to cover for CTD? We are trying to share economic reality...

It is not theory, it is economic reality. No one said they were being magnanimous, rather that their self interest helps others. Are you denying that an increased price reduces demand? That it slows the guy that has some from topping off? That it curbs flippers by removing profit margin?

We have to get past our normalcy bias that stuff is always available and always at the best price. And we must get past the emotional responses to those changing markets, stop using words like greedy and gouging to describe markets responding to supply and demand

Hoss, I think some people can't get past their opinions/emotions when it comes to certain subjects. I honestly can't say I've seen the economic reality of it explained better than in a couple posts on this thread, but we've still got some folks going "Yeah, but" and getting into pleased/displeased, seller motives, etc.
Short version: I'm afraid that for some, realities and perceptions rarely wave at each other in passing, let alone meet.

 

[Hohn]

So, there is a theory that profiteering might stop the panic and hoarding? I think profiteering only puts more money in the pockets of greedy people and companies. Trying to sugar coat it doesn't make it more palatable. Companies like CTD aren't doing it to be magnanimous.

"Profiteering" What is that? How much money is a retailer allowed to make on a sale before they are "profiteering"? Have a guess how much money a retailer makes when they don't sell something because their price is too high?

Your missing the point. The key point is this: panics feed off themselves. A *perception* of shortage creates a *reality* of shortage. With me so far? People who aren't in the market for ammo are suddenly in when they think they might not be able to get any. Sound familiar? Having three package of toilet paper was previously enough, but now that there are shortages, we need 12 to have "enough."

What happens when everyone feels that way? You get a worse shortage than before. When demand spikes, a shortage of supply creates EVEN MORE DEMAND.

Until finally the price gets high enough that someone starts to think, eh maybe I'm ok for now now. This is how every bubble pops. The tulip bulb craze. The dot com bubble. The housing bubble. Still with me?

So it's not that we are defending CTD or give two craps about CTD. What we're saying is that until price spikes start to pop the bubble, it gets worse at an ever-accelerating rate. Perpetual shortage driven by the fear of perpetual shortage.

A price spike lets this play out faster with minimal harm. Complain about price spikes and all you do is prolong the suffering. A retailer that raises prices as market prices rise is helping the public by keeping product on the shelf and reversing the self-reinforcing logic of panic buying.

 

[nonobaddog]

And then there is the retailer that puts one box out at a time from his pallet with a sign that says "Last One".
Rationalize it all you want, the greed part is ugly!

 

[churchmouse]

I learned from the ammo shortage after Sandy Hook, over the following years I accumulated 2 Dillon XL650 and an RL550.

Who don't people reload and buy 1000's of rounds at jacked up prices, I don't understand.

Time/space/desire. Period.
1st I doo not have the time/patience to sit and do that process. But I do build my own guns.....Go figure.
Space. Absolutely zero space to dedicate to this. None, NADA.
Desire. I am meticulous to a fault when building/assembling anything. I have not the desire to get into that learning curve.

I do havefriends that load special stuff for me so Win Win.

 

[BE Mike]

"Profiteering" What is that? How much money is a retailer allowed to make on a sale before they are "profiteering"? Have a guess how much money a retailer makes when they don't sell something because their price is too high?

Your missing the point. The key point is this: panics feed off themselves. A *perception* of shortage creates a *reality* of shortage. With me so far? People who aren't in the market for ammo are suddenly in when they think they might not be able to get any. Sound familiar? Having three package of toilet paper was previously enough, but now that there are shortages, we need 12 to have "enough."

What happens when everyone feels that way? You get a worse shortage than before. When demand spikes, a shortage of supply creates EVEN MORE DEMAND.

Until finally the price gets high enough that someone starts to think, eh maybe I'm ok for now now. This is how every bubble pops. The tulip bulb craze. The dot com bubble. The housing bubble. Still with me?

So it's not that we are defending CTD or give two craps about CTD. What we're saying is that until price spikes start to pop the bubble, it gets worse at an ever-accelerating rate. Perpetual shortage driven by the fear of perpetual shortage.

A price spike lets this play out faster with minimal harm. Complain about price spikes and all you do is prolong the suffering. A retailer that raises prices as market prices rise is helping the public by keeping product on the shelf and reversing the self-reinforcing logic of panic buying.

I understand and I do resent your tone. You are focused on economics, but let's be clear. These people and companies who are charging 2-3X the normal retail price for ammo aren't doing this for the good of all. I am focused on character or lack thereof. This run on ammo isn't a factor for me personally. If I have a friend or family member who has run short of ammo, I'll be happy to give them a box to tide them over. I have always kept plenty of ammo and reloading components on hand.

 

[WebSnyper]

I understand and I do resent your tone. You are focused on economics, but let's be clear. These people and companies who are charging 2-3X the normal retail price for ammo aren't doing this for the good of all. I am focused on character or lack thereof. This run on ammo isn't a factor for me personally. If I have a friend or family member who has run short of ammo, I'll be happy to give them a box to tide them over. I have always kept plenty of ammo and reloading components on hand.

These 2 things/views are not mutually exclusive. Economics is driven by human behaviors (both rational and irrational). Supply and demand, etc is largely dictated by individuals and business entities acting in their own self interest. Regardless of the motive, neither discussion point is incorrect. Also, ethics, psychology, economics all intersect in these discussions.

 

[Ingomike]

And then there is the retailer that puts one box out at a time from his pallet with a sign that says "Last One".
Rationalize it all you want, the greed part is ugly!

This is not what we are discussing, this retailer is a liar and cheat.

Pricing ammo at the new value that recognizes the value of it in difficult times is not greed, it is business...

 

[Hohn]

I understand and I do resent your tone. You are focused on economics, but let's be clear. These people and companies who are charging 2-3X the normal retail price for ammo aren't doing this for the good of all. I am focused on character or lack thereof. This run on ammo isn't a factor for me personally. If I have a friend or family member who has run short of ammo, I'll be happy to give them a box to tide them over. I have always kept plenty of ammo and reloading components on hand.

I applaud your personal generosity and I will do likewise for anyone in need. I'm focused on the economics because if people let the economics work, then the character or lack thereof doesn't matter. And there is no moral principle that can articulate how much profit is too much. Either it's acceptable to make a profit or it's immoral. You probably figured out that I'm pro-economic freedom. Let anybody charge what they want. Nobody is compelled to buy from them, and if they lose reputation from it or lose sales from it-- that's fine. That is *also* a market function.

 

[nonobaddog]

The fewer people that have something the easier it is to fix prices. This is not done to make sure something remains available - this is done to screw the **** out of the vulnerable.

 

[churchmouse]

OK folks. A lot of solid responses in here. No butt hurt is required and should be avoided.

Please.....

 

[Ingomike]

I applaud your personal generosity and I will do likewise for anyone in need. I'm focused on the economics because if people let the economics work, then the character or lack thereof doesn't matter. And there is no moral principle that can articulate how much profit is too much. Either it's acceptable to make a profit or it's immoral. You probably figured out that I'm pro-economic freedom. Let anybody charge what they want. Nobody is compelled to buy from them, and if they lose reputation from it or lose sales from it-- that's fine. That is *also* a market function.

My main motivation for posting on this topic is that I believe it wrong to call any supplier of 2A goods gougers, greedy, unethical, questionable character, and the like just because they chose to sell their products at a price some do not like. It is further unnecessary to then post these comments to get others to boycott them. We don't have enough suppliers as it is, why should friendly fire take any out? If they can survive the business climate then let those that want to shop them do so, if you don't want to shop there don't.

I understand and that it is a jolt to the thinking that 10 days ago one could have bought all the ammo they wanted at low prices but the situation on the ground has changed and prices and values have changed. It amazes me that people actually think a retailer should just ring out their inventory at pre-situation prices after the situation changes. That retailer may not even be able to replace that ammo as they could have pre-situation and may need that price increase just to survive when there is none to sell. There is a hell of a lot more going on in this situation than just a price increase some will not even try to understand...

 

[nonobaddog]

Well in the interest of avoiding experiencing of the wrath of the churchmouse I hereby concede that you are right that all ammo prices are determined by nothing but extremely fair economic processes and all ammo retailers are the nobility, no, the saints of all merchandisers and they place the good of the customers ahead of all else and would never ever do anything that was not in the absolute best interests of their fellow man... and the Easter Bunny.

I have plenty of ammo myself so I'll fade to black in here.