Your guess: How long untill ar15 prices normalize?

[CSK22]

the 1994 ban was over in 2004, but it took 8 years before the price dropped to $800

I think this is an interesting post, I have never thought if it like this. We could be on the first hill of the roller coaster for a while.

 

[kbailey]

I would say 18-24 months after King Obozo's gun control bill gets shot down in congress.

I say 18-24 months because I think people will keep buying ARs as fast as they can be made for some time ... maybe 6-12 months. After that the buying should slow down and inventories should start to be replenished. But it's going to take another 6-12 months for prices to start to come down as panic demand dies off and retailers find they can no longer move inventory at the inflated prices.

Of course all of this goes out the window if another crazy person gets loose and starts killing people.


ETA: if democrats keep being elected to congress and the presidency the panic will never fully die off. Obama had his chance to pass gun control in his first term when the dems controlled both houses but instead he chose to go for the disaster known as universal health care. I would surmise that it was a calculated risk on the dems part going for healthcare instead of gun control as gun control typically ends political careers in moderate and conservative districts. As we saw in the last election Obama needed a lot of moderate and wishy washy voters to carry the presidency for a second term. I believe enough would have turned against him to cost him the presidency. Clinton did get away with it in '94 but we weren't in a bad economy with all of the moderates already on the fence.

 

[TWS]

i believe it will take a while, your always gonna have a good number of people who arent gonna be caught with their pants down again. this will keep the demand up for a while.

 

[djl02]

I would guess the going rate for an AR will stay about where there at. Or at least 15 to 1700,from hereout. Maybe,more for top name brands. Unless you catch a sale. Who knows.

 

[HavokCycle]

americans have been buying guns up like theres no tomorrow (pun kinda intended)
the market was hit HARD in 2012-2013, with doomsday fears, economic instability, election panic and tragedy woes.

if we make it thru this, give it a couple years and the market could likely be FLOODED with 300 DPMS rifles and such.

 

[shooter521]

6 months. Wholesale prices have not increased much at all; once consumers stop paying astronomical retail prices and supply starts to catch up to demand (see separate thread about Stag Arms' 2-year backlog), prices will normalize relatively quickly.

 

[NathanJefferson]

6 months. Wholesale prices have not increased much at all; once consumers stop paying astronomical retail prices and supply starts to catch up to demand (see separate thread about Stag Arms' 2-year backlog), prices will normalize relatively quickly.

This is probably about right. As many people have been pointing out, people have been buying up AR's like crazy for the past few years. The market isn't saturated but it isn't dry! (look at all the EXTRA AR's people are selling to make a quick buck, that is excess demand being soaked up from)

There are a lot more players in the game now too. In 2004 there were how many people making ARs? Now there are dozens, if not hundreds, of shops making high quality ARs. (and many more making fly by night ARs) Yes some brands might have huge backlogs but many already had backlogs before the panic.

I think the backlog on magazines and uppers will be a lot longer than the backlog on lowers.

 

[LEaSH]

I'll be wary of bubba'd used parts from here on out. Even/especially when things appear more available.

I'll probably buy parts new if I can find them. At the moment, I don't want anything (but ammo).

 

[HavokCycle]

6 months. Wholesale prices have not increased much at all; once consumers stop paying astronomical retail prices and supply starts to catch up to demand (see separate thread about Stag Arms' 2-year backlog), prices will normalize relatively quickly.

correct. i have a REAL problem believing supplier prices have increased that much, when i bought a WASR for 600 friday.

 

[chubbs]

Just like when they raise gas to a new dollar amount, it never truely goes back to its past price. It drops and rises, but never really goes back all the way. Ar's will drop in price, but I doubt we see the 2012 prices again. The shops have seen what we will pay, so I would guess some day 899 for a dpms sportical will be a deal to most. Sure the guys at the LGS are cool and know you by name, but deep down they only want your money and as much as possible

 

[Mgderf]

Sure the guys at the LGS are cool and know you by name, but deep down they only want your money and as much as possible

Not Don! Just ask him. He "doesn't want to make money, he just loves to sell guns." Hahaha...

 

[radar44]

I think we will have a new phrase when all of this dies down --- " Panic Gun "

It's a 600+ dollar item that someone needs 1800.00 for it because ,well , "That's what I got in it " . ( . ) before--( 0 ) after.. A lot of people are gonna' take a $$ hit on this kind of price spike .

 

[fyver]

I think we will have a new phrase when all of this dies down --- " Panic Gun "

It's a 600+ dollar item that someone needs 1800.00 for it because ,well , "That's what I got in it " . ( . ) before--( 0 ) after.. A lot of people are gonna' take a $$ hit on this kind of price spike .

Hope you're right...

 

[HavokCycle]

Just like when they raise gas to a new dollar amount, it never truely goes back to its past price. It drops and rises, but never really goes back all the way. Ar's will drop in price, but I doubt we see the 2012 prices again. The shops have seen what we will pay, so I would guess some day 899 for a dpms sportical will be a deal to most. Sure the guys at the LGS are cool and know you by name, but deep down they only want your money and as much as possible

theres a difference - theres no open market on gasoline. gas doesnt change hands 5000 times a day like guns do.

when .32 compacts were popular everyone bought one. when .380 compacts came round, the market was flooded with cheap .32s. now, its going towards pocket 9mm, so i wouldnt be surprised to see cheap .380s soonish.
there are certain things the private market can dictate. guns, used autos, etc, thats one of them.

food, clothing, gas, consumable goods, thats not one of them. the corporate market has cornered that one. for investments, equity, durable goods, thats still an open market.

 

[KoopaKGB]

theres a difference - theres no open market on gasoline. gas doesnt change hands 5000 times a day like guns do.

when .32 compacts were popular everyone bought one. when .380 compacts came round, the market was flooded with cheap .32s. now, its going towards pocket 9mm, so i wouldnt be surprised to see cheap .380s soonish.
there are certain things the private market can dictate. guns, used autos, etc, thats one of them.

food, clothing, gas, consumable goods, thats not one of them. the corporate market has cornered that one. for investments, equity, durable goods, thats still an open market.

Good point about gasoline. I think .380 is a much more popular caliber then the .32. So I don't think the market will be awash in cheap .380s until the gun makers create a reliable 9mm that is smaller then the kel tec P3AT (smallest/lightest .380 I think?) or ruger LCP. I just dont think its physically possible to make a gun for the mainstream market that is as cheap/reliable/smaller then the little LCP.

As far as my guess as to when prices will come down, AT LEAST 18 months and thats IF there are no other major mass shootings that are as powerful as Sandy Hook. Most manufactures are backlogged with at least a years worth of back orders. And then when prices do lower I think once again folks will be buying in full force just to snatch up "deals" in case of the next major threat to 2A. That is the next mass shooting receiving front page headline news... And it will happen again I'm sure of it. Copycat psychopaths will always do evil. Stricter gun laws be damned.

 

[hANNAbONE]

...me thinks we'll know a lot more after noon today.

"normalize" is a good choice of words.

Anybody's guess at this point.

 

[SecondhandSnake]

I think we will have a new phrase when all of this dies down --- " Panic Gun "

It's a 600+ dollar item that someone needs 1800.00 for it because ,well , "That's what I got in it " . ( . ) before--( 0 ) after.. A lot of people are gonna' take a $$ hit on this kind of price spike .

This is what I think is more plausible. Right now there's lots of opportunists that are snapping up everything they can get more or less as an investment.

They're treating it almost like stocks. As long as the price keeps going up, they're happy. If it starts dropping or if the fear goes away, then they're eager to unload as fast as possible. They want to buy low, sell high, so once the panic goes away it should drop pretty well.

 

[familyevents]

Lets assume that no assault weapons ban creeps its way through congress piggy backing on some "spare the virgins only heartless congressmen vote against this bill" kind of bill. How long before we start seeing stripped lowers below $100 again?

I think it will be like gas, it will be what the market will bare...they will test the waters and see what we do.

 

[Hajisc]

If Obama gets away with the proposed 19 executive orders then gun ownership in America is on it's way out. I hope the pro gun house and senate leaders stand against him on this or we are in for some tough times ahead.
Although we are many he is gaining strengh everyday with the illegals and minorities with his entitlements. I don't like where we are headed, the thought of a civil uprising is very real and very scary.

 

[Mosinguy]

Depends on what happens in the next hour.