Jaybird1980
Grandmaster
I'm not going to get into the Natural immunity vs Vaccine immunity as I wouldn't have enough knowledge on the subject, to me it seems either would provide a layer of protection and that is what interested people are after.It depends on what we're saying the vaccine is less effective than. Is it less effective than natural immunity? I think that could depend on how bad a case the person overcame. Is it less effective at protecting against variants? Yes. That much seems clear.
Noting its performance in the US seems important. But let's talk about why it's important. Right now the dominant variant is still delta. Data in Israel and the UK at least leaves open the possibility that vaccinated people over 50 may have a higher risk of death than un-vaccinated people. But we don't know the other factors. That doesn't seem to be the case in the US. But in the US, government hasn't demonstrated honesty. So I don't know how to explain the difference in outcomes.
But anyway, the case fatality rate from the delta variant is very low (~0.2%) compared with the CFR from the variant that caused most of the US deaths (~2%). I do think the vaccines have done a fair job of meeting expectations in terms of helping to prevent deaths from the initial variant. But also it may have lead to some of these other variants.
I am saying it appears more effective than the claims of 95% that's it, not compared to anything else. I do understand that it can change with the circumstances and expect that.