Reading too much into it, DawgThe important part that makes a conviction big trouble for Trump isn't that it has to be a majority of Republicans not voting for him. He's in a virtual tie with Biden (RCP shows Biden +0.4, which is meaningless.
Trump needs all the independents and Republicans who could bring themselves to vote for him, either eagerly or with nostrils clenched. And possibly, if Biden gets into much deeper **** about his influence peddling side hustle, which tends to bring his approvals down further. And however many supporters Biden loses, that's a little buffer for Trump. But as it is now, it's looking like Trump needs all the people polling his way now. He can't afford to be convicted.
The poll has sampling errors obviously. Even figuring that in, Trump likely loses if he's convicted of a felony, all else being the same. And I'm not happy about that. I'm not telling you this because I want trump to lose assuming he's the nominee. If he's what we got, he needs to win. I don't like the results of that poll, sampling notwithstanding.
But you go through all the complicated ******** above, which doesn't change the meaning of the poll. It's either because you don't want to admit that I'm right that conviction makes a difference, or Idunno, maybe you just have to feel like Trump's got this, and **** on anything that suggests it's a bigger hill to climb than you think.
I really don't understand this blind faith that makes Trumpers think they're part of some kind of silent majority of voters that will win it all for him in 2024. That's just fantasy. You guys thought you'd get a red wave in 2022 and Trump's picks got **** on. In 2016 Trump won some key swing states by a very thin margin, and if they'd have gone the other way, by a thin margin, Hildabeast would have been the HBIC.
I'm showing that it's a y poll even if the manipulation they admit to is all the manipulation they did. They obviously have an agenda and tweaked it until they got what they want, and you have NO idea just how much 'massaging' has been done. Given that, why are you so anxious to believe that it shows what you want it to show? Confirmation bias?