Spend some time on RCP's interactive delegate counter. It isn't easy, but you can play out all sorts of permutations. I did a reasonable projection (I had Cruz getting TX and OK) with all the remaining candidates staying in and doing well in their home states. Alas, Rubio doesn't win anything. The polls show him too far behind everywhere. Best case is 30/30/30/5/5 for him in any given state.
Even with that kind of thing, California puts Trump over 1237.
Look - you know where I stand. I hope I'm wrong. I just think chip is more rightier than my hopefulness.
ETA
Glimmer of hope - Drudge is calling MN for Rubio. I did not see that happening. Doesn't really change the math, but it is something.
Dunno man... lot of the political-types out there smarter than me are pretty confident about it:
https://twitter.com/KatiePavlich/status/704881611960152064
Katie Pavlich said:Brokered convention, here we come.
https://twitter.com/DLoesch/status/704882022976659457
Dana Loesch said:Rubio wins MN. Not seeing how we avoid a brokered convention at this point unless we have some big losses in the next few weeks
I'd be highly skeptical of "20 points behind in Florida" at this point.