Stock market.... What are you doing?

[smokingman]

Revised GDP for quarter released 6/1/2020 12noon est-52.8%

https://www.frbatlanta.org/apps/eco...ce=twitter-atlantafed&utm_campaign=economynow

To put it another way the worst decline in one quarter by double any other in history.

Side note stocks are nearing all time records.

It is so bad the Federal Reserve is dropping the GDPNow program in 4 days and creating a new program made from rainbows and unicorn poop.
On June 5 we will stop supporting the GDPNow app. Download our EconomyNow app to continue to get the latest GDP nowcast and more.
https://twitter.com/AtlantaFed/status/1267493152589524993
https://www.investing.com/indices/usa-indices?&majorIndices=on&additionalIndices=on


When the other shoe drops it will not be a thud....it will be heard for generations.

 

[hoosierdoc]

what did you expect when they made it illegal to engage in commerce?

 

[CHCRandy]

up $350 (20%) on those cruise line calls since I bought at 11:30.

put a limit sell order at about 40% gain. would be awesome.

still down big on the 2021 and 2022 calls I bought in March

randy, do you only trade SPY on strike day because that's biggest opportunity for gain if it moves the right way?

I could see buying straddles and closing out one early if it looks like it's moving the other way. do you ever have problems with no open interest or low volume when trying to exit out at end of trading day?

Yes sir. I like buying them real cheap. So I find that it is easiest and most rewarding (as well as less painful if it goes wrong) to just buy them the morning they expire. It is usually Monday, Wednesday and Friday that SPY calls expire. I try to let the market go for 15-30 minutes after open then decide my fate. If market sells off a lot I usually buy calls that are about 2-3 out of the money for around .05-.15. It is not uncommon to have these turn and end up 300-600% or more. I will try posting what I am doing on Friday, real time.....so you can follow. I have to work Wednesday so I wont be trading options.

I have found that 80-90% of the time you have an overnight gap up or down, they always come back to fill the gap, or bounce to fill the gap. All my SPY trades are based on chart, support and resistance.

 

[CHCRandy]

just closed out those NCLH calls, made 36%. looks like they may push higher today but happy with the the gain and wanted to lock in.

hoping the CCL hits too.

edit: CCL hit my limit price, 58% gain

I think i'm liking these near term options for playing short term volatility. the out of the money ones have larger percentage gains which is interesting

Doc, You starting to like options? I swear if I could give any new trader or investor advice....it would be to not be intimidated by options and learn to trade or invest using them. I have started selling covered calls and naked puts as well. Kind of funny that someone pays you for something that ends up being worthless to them......but Lord knows I have bought enough and had them end up worthless.

 

[Dutchisaurus]

As sad as it is, my best returns on my money lately has been in Canadian weed.

"If you can loot in person, you can Vote in person" -Me

 

[hoosierdoc]

Doc, You starting to like options? I swear if I could give any new trader or investor advice....it would be to not be intimidated by options and learn to trade or invest using them. I have started selling covered calls and naked puts as well. Kind of funny that someone pays you for something that ends up being worthless to them......but Lord knows I have bought enough and had them end up worthless.

options are appealing but man they make a man nervous. trying to limit the amount of money I play with in them.

I may have to start looking at SPY strike day options.

 

[CHCRandy]

See this SPY gap up today. If that holds into opening, most likely, it will come back to check yesterdays close at some point. The gaps seem to always fill in.

 

[CHCRandy]

If you notice what the low of SPY was right after open....it came back and checked the 305.52, which was yesterdays close. If this had been tomorrow, at the 305.55 check and hold I would have added 307 or 308 calls......but if you notice them calls were $1 plus today. If you buy them on expiration day you can get for .10 to .25. I don't have the guts to buy them a day before.....because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

 

[smokingman]

 

[Airtevron1]

GO DONALD!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-june-2-2020

 

[smokingman]

GO DONALD!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-june-2-2020

If you think anyone but the Federal Reserve is in control of stocks you are ill informed.

True the president gets to pick which member of the Federal Reserve board is the fed president,but they must pick a sitting member of the board. No president in history has not picked the boards nominee,not one.

The president and even congress have almost no say in monetary policy, the unelected federal reserve controls that.

 

[nonobaddog]

If you think anyone but the Federal Reserve is in control of stocks you are ill informed.

True the president gets to pick which member of the Federal Reserve board is the fed president,but they must pick a sitting member of the board. No president in history has not picked the boards nominee,not one.

The president and even congress have almost no say in monetary policy, the unelected federal reserve controls that.

Sometimes there are a******s in china that have a say in it.

 

[Airtevron1]

If you think anyone but the Federal Reserve is in control of stocks you are ill informed.

True the president gets to pick which member of the Federal Reserve board is the fed president,but they must pick a sitting member of the board. No president in history has not picked the boards nominee,not one.

The president and even congress have almost no say in monetary policy, the unelected federal reserve controls that.

Kind of makes me want to see Ron Paul back in the picture.

 

[hoosierdoc]

If you notice what the low of SPY was right after open....it came back and checked the 305.52, which was yesterdays close. If this had been tomorrow, at the 305.55 check and hold I would have added 307 or 308 calls......but if you notice them calls were $1 plus today. If you buy them on expiration day you can get for .10 to .25. I don't have the guts to buy them a day before.....because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

quite the move at end of market today. are you thinking it'll dip back to the 3:30p level or so in the morning? still trying to see what you mean by checking recent low after open

 

[CHCRandy]

quite the move at end of market today. are you thinking it'll dip back to the 3:30p level or so in the morning? still trying to see what you mean by checking recent low after open

Yeah, them 308 calls would have paid handsomely if they were for today, heck even at $1 earlier will make 100% tomorrow if futures hold, but I didnt buy any.

Checking the gap is hard for me to explain...but I will try. Look at 1 day 5 minute chart of SPY. Yesterday at end of regular hours it was 305.52 close. Well than this morning in pre market it "gaped" up to almost 308....before opening regular hours at 306.55, therefore we had a small gap between 305.52 and 306.55. In my experience, most often, them gaps will get checked at some point....and by that I mean at some point that ticker will use that point to check for support. SO I like to see them come down to that previous close number, if it holds or holds, bounces then comes back down....I want to see it hold that number for support once or twice, anymore than that and I watch for it to break that support and go lower to next support.

Another easier view of a gap that may someday haunt us.....is on 5-15 and 5-18. Look at SPY 1 month 1 day chart....you will see a huge gap down to 285 or so that I think we will fill at some point, but I obviously can't promise that....but I bet we come back down....sometime this fall/winter and fill that gap. But the market was so sold off.....not sure if that gap will play out or not. Keep in mind this only works probably about 8 out of 10 times. In the case of 5-15 we have not looked back, yet.

You can also fill a gap above as well. Like if a stock drops from $20 to $8 and there is a gap from 20 to 12....and the stock is 8. Well when that stock finally breaks above 12 chances are good that it will fill the gap up to near 20. I just learn this stuff from guys who read charts and do that kind of stuff. Wish I was better at it but I do pretty good now at finding supports and resistance, using VWAP and RSI. Here lately has been very tough though, just a lot of uncertainty...and that makes figuring patterns much harder for me. Sorry to ramble and hope this helps you understand what I was babbling about, lol.

 

[CHCRandy]

quite the move at end of market today. are you thinking it'll dip back to the 3:30p level or so in the morning? still trying to see what you mean by checking recent low after open

Them 308 calls I talked about yesterday @ $1 are almost $5 today.....that would have been an easy 500%.

 

[hoosierdoc]

should have held my calls

I didn't put as much in thr puts as least

 

[Tombs]

I'm feeling really good about getting in on boeing back in mid april, about now.

 

[Hohn]

I was dabbling I’m options a few years ago. Was up 11k. Then basically lost it all when I could monitor it for a whole day. I’m done with options for awhile.

 

[CHCRandy]

If you are into a day gamble.....I would say today may be a good day to buy some SPY puts that expire today. I will be looking for 314-316 puts at open......but I don't want to pay over .10-.15 for them. We are gonna gap up big at open.....hard to bet against this market so don't put too much in them. Just my thoughts......