Stock Market is ROCKING

[ditcherman]

The Euro tanked yesterday because nearly every country in it posted record inflation. Germany has inflation running higher than it has since the end of WW2.
We look like the best horse in the glue factory so the dollar is rising,and stocks are down.

I am just waiting for when the market realizes what the FED shedding 95billion a month and no longer buying MBS is going to do to margins and liquidity(liquidity is all but nonexistent already).

Of course today you had the only dove at the fed walk back the idea of a September pause in rate hikes and now it is looking more like .5 increases not the announced .25.
We will see.

Following and learning a bit, but your statement ‘best horse in the glue factory’ struck me as pretty funny/not funny.

 

[ditcherman]

DOW down another 880 points today.

Not necessarily directed at you DD…
880 out of 35k ish (can you tell I’m not paying attention?) is 2.5%. Farmers have dealt with 4% swings in commodity prices fairly often, sometimes on a daily basis.
It would not be historically uncommon to “lose” 12 or 15% of the value of what is in a bin over a week. It may come back, or go down that much the next week too.
It used to drive me nuts to hear the tone in the news readers voice when the Dow was down less than 1 percent and the sky was falling or whatever. I’m past caring now what the general simpleton public thinks, but I would love it if someone with skin in the game could explain to me why they are surprised that a market might drop 2.5%. Maybe even for days in a row. It’s a market, what would one expect? Why is the expectation for appreciation only?
A true market goes up and down, only a manipulated market only goes up, but the manipulation eventually breaks.
What am I missing?

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Not necessarily directed at you DD…
880 out of 35k ish (can you tell I’m not paying attention?) is 2.5%. Farmers have dealt with 4% swings in commodity prices fairly often, sometimes on a daily basis.
It would not be historically uncommon to “lose” 12 or 15% of the value of what is in a bin over a week. It may come back, or go down that much the next week too.
It used to drive me nuts to hear the tone in the news readers voice when the Dow was down less than 1 percent and the sky was falling or whatever. I’m past caring now what the general simpleton public thinks, but I would love it if someone with skin in the game could explain to me why they are surprised that a market might drop 2.5%. Maybe even for days in a row. It’s a market, what would one expect? Why is the expectation for appreciation only?
A true market goes up and down, only a manipulated market only goes up, but the manipulation eventually breaks.
What am I missing?

I don't think you're missing anything! You're absolutely right in your last sentence. But, like it or not the stock market is jittery. The natives are restless and the herd is easily spooked. Okay, that's all the cliche's I could think of.

 

[DragonGunner]

"total US debt is at $90 trillion(including states) which together with $169 trillion in US unfunded liabilities totals $259 trillion, which is $778,000 per US citizen or $2,067,000 per US Taxpayer.
*This was in 2021,things have improved for many states,mostly do to higher tax revenue(Gas/diesel).

Now, the value of all US assets combined: every piece of land, real estate, all savings, all companies, everything that all citizens, businesses, entities and the state own is worth $193 trillion.

Our total debt, $259 trillion minus our total net worth, $193 trillion equals negative $66 trillion of debt and liabilities after every asset in the US has been sold off."

In other words we are not even close.P/E is still almost double the average,and more than 4 times what it was during the inflation of the 1970s. Yet,our government still spends and gives away huge amounts of cash all over the world.

View attachment 205374

So your saying the National debt is $31 Trillion and with individual states added in it comes to $90 Trillion...?

 

[smokingman]

So your saying the National debt is $31 Trillion and with individual states added in it comes to $90 Trillion...?

Is US Debt Really $90 Trillion? – Mark Skidmore | Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Early Sunday Release) Three years ago, Michigan State Economics Professor Mark Skidmore revealed there was $21 trillion in what he calls “Missing Money” from the Department of Defense (DOD) and Housing and Urban Development (HUD). This was a stunning revelation...

usawatchdog.com

It is not just states. It is the roll over at the US Treasury in American treasury bonds. The money is spent,but it is not known publicly when and where it was spent.
This article is from 2020,but should serve to help explain the 90T.

 

[smokingman]

Not necessarily directed at you DD…
880 out of 35k ish (can you tell I’m not paying attention?) is 2.5%. Farmers have dealt with 4% swings in commodity prices fairly often, sometimes on a daily basis.
It would not be historically uncommon to “lose” 12 or 15% of the value of what is in a bin over a week. It may come back, or go down that much the next week too.
It used to drive me nuts to hear the tone in the news readers voice when the Dow was down less than 1 percent and the sky was falling or whatever. I’m past caring now what the general simpleton public thinks, but I would love it if someone with skin in the game could explain to me why they are surprised that a market might drop 2.5%. Maybe even for days in a row. It’s a market, what would one expect? Why is the expectation for appreciation only?
A true market goes up and down, only a manipulated market only goes up, but the manipulation eventually breaks.
What am I missing?

That is easy. Since 2008 we have had the fed backing the markets. We have not had any real down turn on performance,pe,or anything that matters. Yes we have had a few shocks(covid for example),but other than those the market has only gone up.

So to any trader or media person who joined the workforce in say 2009(or 1982),none of this is "normal".
Really since 1982 stocks have only gone "up" without an exterior event. You see it in the reporting every day. Stocks went up or down because of blank country,event,or some reason that usually has no meaning to actual company performance.

Some of the things that caused this state.
Share buybacks. Rather than invest in facilities,people,or their business companies have been driven by shareholders to "reward them". Pre 1982 share buybacks where illegal. In short if you do not invest profits in your company(or count on loans from outside to do so)you are already in decline. Imagine a company who borrow money to give shareholders more "profit". Now imagine the lenders are the shareholders and that nearly 30% of all companies listed on the stock market function this way...because that is the reality. Remember companies like Hostess that where actually profitable,but loaded with debt? Share buy backs and loans to do so caused the fall of hostess. Sure banks made billions on both ends(loans and shares),but the company was destroyed.The snapping point was when they could not pay interest and employee retirements at the same time.Bankruptcy and reset(minus pension liability)and it has already restarted the same process again.

The Ugly Truth Behind Stock Buybacks

Every time executives want to authorize a buyback, this decision should go to a proxy vote. In my mind, this rule should have been implemented long before the buyback binge even got started.

www.forbes.com

SEC.gov | Stock Buybacks and Corporate Cashouts

Stock Buyouts and Corporate Cashoutsc

www.sec.gov

Then of course you have the Supreme court passing "Citizens United"in 2010. Giving corporations much say in things like elections.

Citizens United v. FEC, 558 U.S. 310 (2010)

Citizens United v. Federal Election Comm'n: Limiting independent expenditures on political campaigns by groups such as corporations, labor unions, or other collective entities violates the First Amendment because limitations constitute a prior restraint on speech.

supreme.justia.com

How corporations became people(mind you before 1913 only corporations paid taxes on income). https://www.alternet.org/2014/07/10-supreme-court-rulings-turned-corporations-people/

The Federal reserve was given almost free reign to do anything in 2009.
They started buying MBS,by the trillions to bail out banks. Thanks to mark to market(means it was worth at least what they paid for it when sold) the banks took what where huge losses and instead made money(that taxpayers are on the hook for to this day as the fed tries to unwind them). They purchased MBS from 2009-2022. It is only the last week they have actually stopped,currently they hold 2.3 trillion in MBS.

FRB: Annual Report 2009, Federal Reserve Banks Combined Financial Statements

www.federalreserve.gov

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0826

In short the market has functioned very differently than a free market for so long,most do not remember why things like PE,debt,and true bottom line growth ever mattered. So normalcy bias for a market that has not been a normal market in a very long time.

Your conclusion it broke is not wrong. The engine driving the always up(FED)market broke.The dual mandate of the FED is full employment,and inflation of 3%. They have to try to lower inflation or the federal reserve note loses all credibility. It is a shock to many who did not see this coming and never understood what spending trillions did to both markets and the currency.

 

[smokingman]

Following and learning a bit, but your statement ‘best horse in the glue factory’ struck me as pretty funny/not funny.

I think the fed does a .75 rate increase next meeting(next Wednesday)followed buy .5s.
The breaking point though is our debt. If they trigger that(house hold,federal,and corporate debt)to explode(due to not being able to pay the higher rates) we will have inflation,defaults,and the great depression 2.0 leading to possibly a new currency.
We are much closer to that than many realize.

 

[CHCRandy]

 

[CHCRandy]

View attachment 205526

This is what has been keeping me up at night.........

 

[smokingman]

This is what has been keeping me up at night.........

You probably do not want to look at PE charts for the same time period(or all the way back to the 1970s). If those charts keep you up PE charts would give you nightmares.

 

[Libertarian01]

We are in a period of massive change and disruption. There are several contributors to this so I don't think anyone can be "blamed" directly. Not defending nor attacking anyone, but when we look at the big picture a time of readjustment was inevitable.

Issue #1) The baby boomers are leaving the workforce. The largest generation in modern history is now in the process of retiring. They have been and will continue to do so. They will remove their money from riskier growth investments and put it into treasury bonds and other safer investments. Their retirement is not only creating a worker shortage but forcing wages to increase. Gen X cannot step in for them in numbers because it is the smallest generation in modern history.

Issue #2) World population is decreasing. There are very few countries that have a sustainable consumer driven population: The United States, Mexico, and France being among them. China's "One Child" policy worked great, but not for them. So there are becoming less people to buy stuff.

Issue #3) China's response to Covid is pathetic. They are removing themselves from world trade by needing to lock down continuously because their vaccine doesn't work. This is causing massive disruptions in supply chains forcing the re-sourcing of materials and component parts manufacture. This will inevitably cause a temporary spike in prices. When I say temporary I mean several year, not weeks or monthes.

Issue #4) Russia invades Ukraine. In an unexpected mass unification Europe is boycotting most all of Russia's oil, gas and manufactured products. It would seem that Putin is the greatest force to unify Europe since... a long time. The removal of millions of barrels of Russian oil is severely reducing world oil supply. And when supply goes down and demand remains the same prices rise, a lot. Even if some countries are willing to buy Russian oil insurance companies are refusing to cover the tankers, tanker captains are refusing to haul Russian oil, and dock workers are refusing to unload Russian oil.

Issue #5) Worldwide reduction in fertlizer inputs. China has banned the export of phosphate based fertilizer. Russian and Belurus supply a large percentage of potash. Potash fertillizer prices have tripled. Nitrogen based fertilizer is easy for us to make using natural gas from shale oil, but the burden on that resource still makes the growing of crops and animal feed very expensive.

Issue #6) China and African Swine Fever. China has been forced to cull 2/3 of their pig herds, which is more than on all other commercial farms on planet earth. As they try to rebuild their herds they are buying up all the food they can from all over the world to feed their new young pigs, yet again straining food costs.

Issue #7) Manufacturing is being relocated back to the United States. Here, supply chains are shorter and energy costs extremely cheap compared to the rest of the world, but this adjustment will take time. During that time costs will remain high until the manufacturing is complete, and even then it will be some time until everything balances to a new normal. Intel is building two (2) new high end chip manufacturing plants in Ohio and Arizona. I have heard that they already have orders reaching out for ten (10) years!

Issue #8) It is summer time. Every year refining plants have to create literally hundreds of unique gasoline blends for the environment in many separate cities across the United States. So the gasoline you buy in Atlanta is different for Los Angeles is different from Houston is different from Miami, ad-nausium. Imagine the logistics of sending specific blends of gas to each of our major urban centers. Costs always go up. They will reduce this fall as the number of blends greatly reduces.

All of these issues and many more are going to seriously impact American companies and our ability to function with stability for some time to come. However, I do believe that in a few short years we will come out stronger and more dynamic than ever before with a vibrant economy and strength that goes beyond where we have ever been. Until then... ugh.

Regards,

Doug

PS - I have been watching a lot of Peter Zeihan's videos and reading his books. His analysis is nuanced and based on facts that are not normally discussed.

 

[smokingman]

Remember me pointing out things broke Friday in the bond market.
Here is a primer on why. The article was published when the 2 year was at 2.75(Friday pre market,and did not get put on zerohedge until Sunday),my post was when it had hit 2.96..which to me sounded serious alarm when compared to the 10 year. The article helps you understand why.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

I have a feeling the other shoe just fell. We will see Monday.
The above is also likely why the FED Repo window has gone from half a trillion per day to over 2 trillion per day just since May of 2021.

If you are not having every alarm bell going off not sure what to tell you. Here is the chart(slider bar controls how far back you want to see).

Reverse Repo Operations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

www.newyorkfed.org

So why am I not still short ? I got out of the markets and sold my TIPS treasuries to move into real physical assets(posted it here the day I did it). When the short positions I had would have more than doubled my earnings?
Simple. I see two ways this unwinds. Either the FED bends,and does the largest QE ever(doubtful given inflation would be Zimbabwe levels),or we see a depression with failures in companies,banks,and markets. Either way I am now "safe" and my trust in the dollar or treasuries is at zero.

Did I get out a bit early? Yes,I could have made more had I stayed in and short,but I was not sure I could have gotten it out and changed to physical assets before everyone else tried to.
I feel good about where I am at for the foreseeable future,no matter how it goes.

I have been wrong before. I thought this would happen in 2012. I thought it would all fall apart when the fed balance sheet hit 2 trillion. I saw our official debt hit 15 trillion and though holy crap we are screwed. Now the fed balance sheet is over 9 trillion and our debt is officially 30t.

The difference now is inflation.

If I am wrong again this time though,all I have lost is the extra I could have made and to me it is not worth the risk. I have a feeling many rules and laws will change,and watching those and things like PE and currencies will determine if I ever get back in the markets.Not worth what it once was,but just my.

 

[ditcherman]

View attachment 205526

That just looks like a chart that should be shorted.
You know, if it were corn. Please remember I know nothing.
Also, free advice is the most expensive.

 

[ditcherman]

That is easy. Since 2008 we have had the fed backing the markets. We have not had any real down turn on performance,pe,or anything that matters. Yes we have had a few shocks(covid for example),but other than those the market has only gone up.

So to any trader or media person who joined the workforce in say 2009(or 1982),none of this is "normal".
Really since 1982 stocks have only gone "up" without an exterior event. You see it in the reporting every day. Stocks went up or down because of blank country,event,or some reason that usually has no meaning to actual company performance.

Some of the things that caused this state.
Share buybacks. Rather than invest in facilities,people,or their business companies have been driven by shareholders to "reward them". Pre 1982 share buybacks where illegal. In short if you do not invest profits in your company(or count on loans from outside to do so)you are already in decline. Imagine a company who borrow money to give shareholders more "profit". Now imagine the lenders are the shareholders and that nearly 30% of all companies listed on the stock market function this way...because that is the reality. Remember companies like Hostess that where actually profitable,but loaded with debt? Share buy backs and loans to do so caused the fall of hostess. Sure banks made billions on both ends(loans and shares),but the company was destroyed.The snapping point was when they could not pay interest and employee retirements at the same time.Bankruptcy and reset(minus pension liability)and it has already restarted the same process again.

The Ugly Truth Behind Stock Buybacks

Every time executives want to authorize a buyback, this decision should go to a proxy vote. In my mind, this rule should have been implemented long before the buyback binge even got started.

www.forbes.com

SEC.gov | Stock Buybacks and Corporate Cashouts

Stock Buyouts and Corporate Cashoutsc

www.sec.gov

Then of course you have the Supreme court passing "Citizens United"in 2010. Giving corporations much say in things like elections.

Citizens United v. FEC, 558 U.S. 310 (2010)

Citizens United v. Federal Election Comm'n: Limiting independent expenditures on political campaigns by groups such as corporations, labor unions, or other collective entities violates the First Amendment because limitations constitute a prior restraint on speech.

supreme.justia.com

How corporations became people(mind you before 1913 only corporations paid taxes on income). https://www.alternet.org/2014/07/10-supreme-court-rulings-turned-corporations-people/

The Federal reserve was given almost free reign to do anything in 2009.
They started buying MBS,by the trillions to bail out banks. Thanks to mark to market(means it was worth at least what they paid for it when sold) the banks took what where huge losses and instead made money(that taxpayers are on the hook for to this day as the fed tries to unwind them). They purchased MBS from 2009-2022. It is only the last week they have actually stopped,currently they hold 2.3 trillion in MBS.

FRB: Annual Report 2009, Federal Reserve Banks Combined Financial Statements

www.federalreserve.gov

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2021/0826

In short the market has functioned very differently than a free market for so long,most do not remember why things like PE,debt,and true bottom line growth ever mattered. So normalcy bias for a market that has not been a normal market in a very long time.

Your conclusion it broke is not wrong. The engine driving the always up(FED)market broke.The dual mandate of the FED is full employment,and inflation of 3%. They have to try to lower inflation or the federal reserve note loses all credibility. It is a shock to many who did not see this coming and never understood what spending trillions did to both markets and the currency.

The 1982 correlation is interesting, my father was a bitter survivor of 19% interest back then, and I vividly remember him saying, when the Dow went over 3000, that this will never last, that it was unsustainable. He said that at 5000, 7000, 10,000, 14,000, and finally stopped opening his mouth about it. He passed away about 17,000.

We don’t know what we don’t know.

He felt very much the same way as you do @smokingman about the service economy, and that was back in the 80’s-90’s.

All I can do is try to remember what my father went through, what he taught me, and cipher out what part of that is correct for the coming time. And read INGO.

 

[smokingman]

10 year treasury is up over 6% today to 3.34%
2 year treasury is up to 3.21%

The larger news is the US dollar. Up to 104.81(the highest since 2002),mostly on JPY crashing and the EU delays in raising rates. JPY fell against the dollar to 24 year lows.

Yes,there are now even banks betting the fed does a larger than expected rate hike Wednesday(Morgan Stanley says it may do 1%,or double the original forecast). I still expect a .75,they want to rock the boat not tip it over(look like they are doing everything they can ,without doing so much they trigger defaults).

Nasdaq -3.81%
S&P -3.01%
Dow -2.14%

The only thing I see in the green is Oil(new highs)and hogs.

The markets are waiting on the FED and everything at this point is being positioned by what they think(hope?),the FED does Wednesday.

Investing.com - Stock Market Quotes & Financial News

Investing.com offers free real time quotes, portfolio, streaming charts, financial news, live stock market data and more.

www.investing.com

3:47 pm

U.S. corporate debt hit hard as inflation shock intensifies economic fears By Reuters

U.S. corporate debt hit hard as inflation shock intensifies economic fears

www.investing.com

"U.S. corporate bonds were pummeled on Monday as expectations of an aggressive rate hiking cycle, following hotter-than-anticipated inflation data last week, intensified concerns over the economic outlook and companies' ability to repay their debt." Tick...tick...

Nasdaq -4.69%
S&P -3.98%
DOW -3.01%
Dollar up to 105.055 and looks to gain even more over the next few weeks,but is not a long term trend. Mostly due to Europe and Japan hanging onto dollars as treasuries mature to try and prop up their currencies. Those dollars will return,and when they do the dollar will hit lows we have not seen in a long time(more money in circulation=more inflation).
If the dollar was actually stronger in purchasing power things(oil,gas,and food)would being going down in price(priced in dollars after all). The fact they are not should tell you about how strong the dollar really is.

 

[smokingman]

So I am still watching the fed meeting(3:25 est 6/15).
While watching markets. The 75 rate raise should have sent the dollar higher. It did not,so I started looking for why.
Chinese companies and China are the reason. They volume of US Treasuries they are selling into the rate hike is incredible. Companies in China are being pushed by the government to sell them to raise the amount of capitol for investment in China.

Today alone over 80 billion(so far,that I can see)in US bonds have been sold,almost all by China and their banks(into the arms of Japan's central bank,EU,and demand from US banks(collateral for the now 2+ trillion nightly REPO window at the fed). It is driving the dollar down,for now.

China's banks scramble to raise capital and answer calls to support economy

China Construction Bank Corp (CCB) started selling 60 billion yuan ($8.9 billion) in bonds on Wednesday, joining peers as they rush to replenish capital in response to tighter regulations and government calls to support a virus-hit economy.

www.reuters.com

US Dollar index 104.51 or -.89% on a day the fed raised by .75

Weird day.

The FED also made it clear as long as consumer spending is stable it does not matter if it is core inflation or consumer. In other words they do not care if you are buying flat screens,food,or energy as long as you keep spending.

3.27 est meeting is over. I do not think the dollar stays weaker longer,but China has publicly stated they are lowering dollar reserves. Yuan is weaker vs dollar today. Japan is doing insane things(more) with the JPY,it is near a breaking point(shorted more than ever now).

 

[BehindBlueI's]

So I am still watching the fed meeting(3:25 est 6/15).
While watching markets. The 75 rate raise should have sent the dollar higher. It did not,so I started looking for why.
Chinese companies and China are the reason. They volume of US Treasuries they are selling into the rate hike is incredible. Companies in China are being pushed by the government to sell them to raise the amount of capitol for investment in China.

Today alone over 80 billion(so far,that I can see)in US bonds have been sold,almost all by China and their banks(into the arms of Japan's central bank,EU,and demand from US banks(collateral for the now 2+ trillion nightly REPO window at the fed). It is driving the dollar down,for now.

China's banks scramble to raise capital and answer calls to support economy

China Construction Bank Corp (CCB) started selling 60 billion yuan ($8.9 billion) in bonds on Wednesday, joining peers as they rush to replenish capital in response to tighter regulations and government calls to support a virus-hit economy.

www.reuters.com

US Dollar index 104.51 or -.89% on a day the fed raised by .75

Weird day.

The FED also made it clear as long as consumer spending is stable it does not matter if it is core inflation or consumer. In other words they do not care if you are buying flat screens,food,or energy as long as you keep spending.

3.27 est meeting is over. I do not think the dollar stays weaker longer,but China has publicly stated they are lowering dollar reserves. Yuan is weaker vs dollar today. Japan is doing insane things(more) with the JPY,it is near a breaking point(shorted more than ever now).

I knew something was up when I tried to log on to treasurydirect today and it was trying to load but kept giving 'service not available' messages randomly and booting me off.

 

[jsx1043]

So I am still watching the fed meeting(3:25 est 6/15).
While watching markets. The 75 rate raise should have sent the dollar higher. It did not,so I started looking for why.
Chinese companies and China are the reason. They volume of US Treasuries they are selling into the rate hike is incredible. Companies in China are being pushed by the government to sell them to raise the amount of capitol for investment in China.

Today alone over 80 billion(so far,that I can see)in US bonds have been sold,almost all by China and their banks(into the arms of Japan's central bank,EU,and demand from US banks(collateral for the now 2+ trillion nightly REPO window at the fed). It is driving the dollar down,for now.

China's banks scramble to raise capital and answer calls to support economy

China Construction Bank Corp (CCB) started selling 60 billion yuan ($8.9 billion) in bonds on Wednesday, joining peers as they rush to replenish capital in response to tighter regulations and government calls to support a virus-hit economy.

www.reuters.com

US Dollar index 104.51 or -.89% on a day the fed raised by .75

Weird day.

The FED also made it clear as long as consumer spending is stable it does not matter if it is core inflation or consumer. In other words they do not care if you are buying flat screens,food,or energy as long as you keep spending.

3.27 est meeting is over. I do not think the dollar stays weaker longer,but China has publicly stated they are lowering dollar reserves. Yuan is weaker vs dollar today. Japan is doing insane things(more) with the JPY,it is near a breaking point(shorted more than ever now).

I’m hearing grumbles of bank runs in China over the last 24-36 hours and the market over there taking a tumble due to Evergrande going insolvent. Are you seeing anything? I am not well versed in the markets, OSINT, SIGINT and HUMINT are my bailiwick.

 

[smokingman]

I’m hearing grumbles of bank runs in China over the last 24-36 hours and the market over there taking a tumble due to Evergrande going insolvent. Are you seeing anything? I am not well versed in the markets, OSINT, SIGINT and HUMINT are my bailiwick.

It is not so much as insolvent as US funds are leaving with a giant whoooosh sound. It is a currency/trade war in every respect. It has been escalating since Trump honestly.

Last June

Biden prohibits U.S. investment in 59 Chinese companies allegedly tied to military, surveillance

President Joe Biden expanded restrictions on U.S. investments in 59 Chinese companies with alleged ties to the country's military efforts.

www.cnbc.com

Yesterday

US lawmakers reach agreement to cut off American investment in China

U.S. lawmakers have reached an agreement on legislation aimed at limiting U.S. investments in China on Tuesday.

www.foxbusiness.com

"A bipartisan group of lawmakers announced an agreement on legislation that would allow the U.S. government to cut off billions in Americans investments into China on Monday."

In turn China called on banks and corporations who held US Treasuries to sell them,to provide liquidity into their economy(and to back fill the US dollars leaving).

Make no mistake both sides are treating each other with more hostility,and preparing.

US bill won't stop China's development, will backfire: official - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

 

[smokingman]

Three Arrows Capital defaults after failing to make required payment on loan of 15,250 bitcoins​

Another exchange just went down,and like banks many are interconnected.

Fed REPO window is still running at 2.2 trillion in lending to banks every day.

Reverse Repo Operations - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

www.newyorkfed.org

Frank Dodd was rolled back. I really missed this when it happened. Banks post 2009 needed 10% capitol for a loan(example 10,000 for a 100,000 loan). It is now 4.5% so they need 4500 to make a 100,000 loan. This will end poorly. But I am sure they are all solvent and healthy and only need 2.2 trillion a day to stay solvent.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/crypto-broker-voyager-digital-issues-default-notice-to-three-arrows-capital