If it was my country that was invaded I don't think that "splitting it up " would be an acceptable outcome to me.USA strategy is to bleed Russia dry. Send enough weapons to keep things churning and the conflict in Ukrainian space. Test weapons and tactics in real time without American casualties at this moment. See how Russia reacts to this And that. hopefully not burn though all stockpiles of old munitions before Russia runs out of their stockpile of old munitions.
Ukrainian strategy is to survive the onslaught and outlast the advance. This to me is more an east verses west battle than the press releases would or will state. Poland has claims in Ukrainian land in the past and seems like they think of the area as valuable in Ukrainian hands or polish hands. Norway/finland have a distrust of Russia as they have been invaded in the past. This could be a second front in the future but that would require some further escalation in that sphere of influence.
Russian strategy is to gain valuable resources and population while making a semi communist socials states like they had pre 1990. In the process if they can weaken or kill the petro dollar they bleed out USA influence worldwide. Ukrainian has very valuable resources and farm land which they are attempting to control. Russia in history does not do well at the start of a war. They gain traction as time goes on. Russia has some friends showing some support as they can in Iran North Korea and Syria. Some fence jumping support in Saudi Arabia and turkey. Belarus has an army of like 10 k active soldiers so other than logistic base I see no real threat in their for es
If Russia wins. The war will spill over into the Baltic states. Bric’s states increase influence financially. India China and Russia massed into at basic area together should partner up or could conflict up. Russia Into Poland and it most likely means WW3. ( maybe nukes)
if Ukrainian forces win Russia faces an extensive amount of internal conflict and external conflict thus is likely to use whatever means at it disposal to silence that conflict. Thus maybe nukes.
Best outcome would be some type of peace talks splitting Ukrainian up but neither side seems to want that outcome. Second best is that the meat grinder of a war continues grinding meat and armaments until both sides are spent and a WW1 trench style war takes hold.
I still feel that other conflicts will take hold. Arminian conflict. Israel/Syria Israel/Iran Iran/Iraq Pakistan/ India ( a simmering powderkeg) African internal conflicts maybe an Asian conflict in Korea or south China seas. I do not see a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as China does not have enough ships. Taiwan needs anti Ship capabilities and if they quit buying tanks they can stop things themselves.
rambled on but 2 cents and a nickel. Been reading much commentary little